The harsh winter returns, with snow at 500 meters in the north and frost in almost the entire Peninsula

Two meteorological phenomena will combine as of this Wednesday to return Spain to the harshest winter when it seemed to be heading towards an early spring.

The confluence of an isolated depression at high levels (dana) and a very cold air mass will cause snowfall at low levels in the northern half of the Peninsula, frost in most of the country and daytime temperatures below 10° to the north peninsular.

The heaviest snowfall will occur on Thursday, the day on which there will also be a drop in thermometers, with up to 10° less than the day before in the north and central areas.

“With the current forecasts, we cannot speak of a cold wave because the intensity, persistence and extension thresholds will not be exceeded, but it will be an episode of adverse winter cold,

with snowfall and very low temperatures after a few days in which spring weather has predominated ”, warns Rubén del Campo, spokesman for the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet).

So far, there hasn't been a cold snap all winter.

As usually happens with this type of phenomenon, the trajectory of the dana —an air pocket in high layers— is “unpredictable” and its position is “key when determining in which areas its effects will be most noticeable”, for so as of Friday there is uncertainty about the areas that will be most affected by the storm.

The sudden change in weather begins this Wednesday, when the passage of a cold front will leave "the path open for the arrival in Spain of a polar air mass" - which does not mean that it comes from the pole, but from high latitudes - at time that "a dana will be formed at medium and high levels of the troposphere", which will haunt the country for the next few years.

As the front passes, the clouds will increase and there will be rainfall in the northern third of the peninsula, which may be strong and persistent in the Bay of Biscay.

In the rest of the northern half, there will be the possibility of showers accompanied by storms, which are "rare in February, but not unusual."

January and February are the months of the year in which there are fewer storms.

The snow level will end up dropping to 600/800 meters in the northern third ―a term that includes Galicia, Cantabrian communities, northern Castilla y León, La Rioja, Navarra, northern Aragon and northern Catalonia― and to 1,000 meters in the rest of the northern half and the central area.

Although most of the snow will fall in mountain areas, lately it may also fall in lower areas.

There are warnings for snow with a yellow alert, the lowest level on a scale of three, in Asturias, Cantabria, Castilla y León, Galicia and La Rioja.

This situation "will get worse on Thursday", with the dana located on the northwest.

A good part of the northern half, the central zone and points of the Mediterranean area will have very cloudy skies, with locally strong and persistent rains and showers in Galicia, Cantabrian communities, the upper Ebro and the Pyrenees.

There will also be locally intense showers in Catalonia and somewhat weaker points in the Central and Iberian systems, the Valencian Community and the Balearic Islands.

#ProbabilityForecasted precipitation from today, Tuesday, February 21 to Friday, February 24 pic.twitter.com/FYHXCvz0ik

– CésarRgzBallesteros (@crballesteros) February 21, 2023

This day will be the one with the most snow.

The level will be "very low", at 400/600 meters in Galicia, the Cantabrian Sea and Castilla y León, at 500/700 in the rest of the northern half and central area and 600-800 in the southern half of the peninsula.

“The accumulation of snow can be important, greater than 10 centimeters in 24 hours at low levels of the Cantabrian communities, especially Asturias and Cantabria.

There may also be accumulations of snow, in principle minor, in low levels of the Basque Country, Navarra, north and east of Castilla y León and east of Galicia”, indicates Del Campo.

There will be an orange warning, the second level of the Meteoalerta system, for snow in Aragon, Asturias, Cantabria and Catalonia, while it will be yellow in Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Galicia, Navarra, the Basque Country and La Rioja.

On Friday "uncertainty increases", but it is likely that "rainfall will be more limited to the northern third of the Peninsula".

It may also rain in the Balearic Islands and these showers "could spread to the peninsular Mediterranean area and also to points in the western third."

The levels, "still low": 500/800 meters inside the Peninsula and higher the further east.

The snowfall at low altitudes in the northern third "could continue through the weekend, with possible showers also in the Mediterranean area", but for now it is not clear.

Snow is not expected in Madrid capital

With these heights, will it snow in the capital?

"There is very little probability," replies the Aemet spokesman, who details that the possibility of seeing a snowflake fall on Wednesday is 0%, on Thursday between 5% and 10%, on Friday again 0% and on Saturday, although there is still a lot left, from 10% to 20%.

The other protagonist of the episode will be the collapse of temperatures.

"Although on Wednesday there will already be a decrease in the northern third, the drop will be more abrupt and important on Thursday, when it will practically affect the entire country and will be pronounced in the north and central area of ​​the Peninsula, with daytime temperatures up to 10° less. than the day before”, details the expert.

On Thursday there will be frosts in much of the interior of the peninsula, of -8°/-10° in mountain areas and -5°/-7° in the east of the northern plateau and central páramos.

By day, in the north the thermometers will be "clearly below 10°".

The frosts will intensify and become general on Friday, with -4°/-5° in a good part of the interior of the northern half and this peninsular.

In cities like Segovia or Soria it will drop to -8° and daytime temperatures will continue to be below 10° in the northern half.

Temperatures will gradually recover over the weekend, but the early mornings will continue to be very cold, with significant frosts in large areas, while the cold environment will remain in much of the northern and central half.