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Launch of a US cruise missile at a 2019 test in California
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At the end of his State of the Union address, Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin announced that he would suspend Russia's participation in the New Start nuclear weapons control treaty with the United States.
The suspension is not an exit, he clarified.
But what is the deal all about?
And what does its suspension mean for global disarmament efforts?
Answers to the most important questions.
What does the »New Start« treaty regulate?
"Start" is short for "Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty".
The "New Start" agreement came into force on February 5, 2011 and limited the nuclear arsenals of Russia and the USA to 800 delivery systems and 1,550 operational nuclear warheads each.
In addition, it was regulated that Washington and Moscow can exchange information about their strategic nuclear arsenals and hold up to 18 inspection visits per year.
The agreement was initially concluded for a period of ten years.
In 2021, Moscow and Washington signed a five-year extension.
It is the only remaining major arms control agreement between the US and Russia.
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Where does the "New" in "New Start" come from?
What agreements were there before?
»Start I« was signed in 1991 after nine years of preparation by the then US President George Bush and the Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev.
It stipulated that the contracting parties disarm: to 1,600 delivery systems, 6,000 warheads, 4,900 nuclear warheads.
An additional protocol stipulated that the successor states of the Soviet Union, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and the Ukraine, are contractual partners.
"New Start" replaced the Start I contract, which expired in 2009.
"Start II" in 1993 was intended to disable land-based ICBMs with multiple warheads and reduce strategic nuclear warheads.
However, ratification took a long time, the treaty never came into force and became obsolete with New Start in 2011.
In 1992, the »Open Skies« Agreement assured the signing 27 CSCE states of mutual reconnaissance flights on fixed routes, i.e. arms control from the air in order to avoid conflicts.
In 2020, the USA under Donald Trump withdrew from the treaty, in 2021 Russia.
The INF Treaty (Intermediate Range Nuclear Treaty) banned land-based intermediate-range nuclear weapons, it has been in effect since 1988, and in 2019 Trump announced the withdrawal of the United States after both parties had previously accused each other of breaking the agreement .
The predecessors of the “Start” treaties were the “Salt” treaties (“Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty”) of 1972 and 1979. With them, the USA and the Soviet Union undertook to limit their strategic nuclear weapons systems .
Part of "Salt 1" in 1972 were the agreements on the limitation of missile defense systems (Anti-Ballistic Missiles, ABM).
Does the suspension of »New Start« come as a surprise?
No.
As early as January, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that after the agreement expires in 2026, it is "very likely" that it will not be extended.
Blame it on the United States, not Russia.
Due to the corona pandemic, the contractually agreed inspections have been suspended since March 2020. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, both Moscow and Washington refused inspectors entry without suspending the contract itself.
What does the suspension mean for disarmament efforts?
In recent decades, the number of nuclear weapons worldwide has declined.
With the end of the Cold War, the fear of nuclear war also diminished.
As recently as January 2022, the five most important nuclear powers (and permanent members of the UN Security Council) USA, Russia, China, France and Great Britain committed themselves to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
In a jointly released statement, they wrote: "A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought."
But the Russian invasion of Ukraine is already leading to rearmament among the great powers – also with regard to nuclear weapons.
Warheads are being modernized, their total number is likely to increase again soon.
New disarmament treaties seem to be a long way off, especially since they would also have to include China.
But Beijing has so far rejected all attempts of this kind.
German security expert Claudia Major saw Putin's announcement primarily as a long-term problem.
In practice, little will change at first, she told ZDF, after all the Russian Foreign Ministry has announced that it intends to continue to adhere to the upper limit.
After the contract expires in 2026, however, the way is open for a “major rearmament”.
That is "extremely worrying".