One year after the invasion of Ukraine: can we talk about world war?
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(CNN Spanish) --
When Russia's invasion of Ukraine began a year ago, one of the great fears was that the conflict would spread and cause a Third World War.
What situation are we in?
Battles in Ukraine, but with weapons from abroad
Following the Russian invasion of its territory on February 24, 2022, Ukraine is fighting the aggressor with US-supplied Javelin anti-tank missile launchers.
It will shortly do so with German-made Leopard 2 tanks delivered by this country, as well as others such as Poland, Canada and Spain.
And it also uses Bayraktar drones from Turkey, Caesar long-range howitzers from France and m270 rocket launchers from the UK.
A Leopard 2 A4 tank on display at the Świętoszów tank training center in Świętoszów, Poland.
(Credit: Bartek Sadowski/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
For its part, Russia uses Iranian kamikaze drones and Belarus allows it to station troops on its border with Ukraine.
In fact, at the beginning of the invasion, a part of the Russian troops left there.
In addition, US intelligence, according to reports made public in November, accuses North Korea of secretly sending artillery shells to the Russian army.
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In other words, the Russian aggression against Ukraine has mobilized allies from both countries to help the contenders, but the conflict is contained within the borders of that republic, which at one time was part of the now extinct Soviet Union.
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The US position
Then there is the NATO military alliance, which brings together much of Europe and is helping Ukraine with arms, logistics, training, intelligence and surveillance in its fight against the invaders.
And to this is added the European Union, which sanctions Russia and gives abundant economic aid to Ukraine.
However, despite all this international military, diplomatic and economic aid in such an important armed conflict, there is no talk of a World War as such.
In March 2022, just three weeks after the start of the Russian invasion, the president of the United States, Joe Biden, assured that he would defend NATO but that his country would not fight a third world war in Ukraine.
"We will defend every inch of NATO territory with the full power of the US galvanized by NATO. We will not fight a war against Russia in the Ukraine. The conflict between NATO and Russia is World War III, and it is something that we strive to prevent it," he said then.
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Are we closer to a Third World War?
However, a retired US Army colonel believes that World War III has already begun, although for the moment it is confined within the borders of Ukraine.
"It's not just us, there's NATO, there's the European Union, Belarus, China, Iran, North Korea, so yes it's a World War being contained on Ukraine's borders," retired Col. Jon Sweet told CNN.
The war is going to be long, as NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg has stated.
"We need to be prepared for a long road that can last, many, many, many, many years, and at the same time we should be prepared for the unforeseen, and that is why we must invest in our deterrence and defense," he said on February 12 in Brussels.
Ukrainian servicemen receive US-supplied FGM-148 Javelins anti-tank missiles at the Kyiv airport on February 11, 2022. (Sergei Supinsky/AFP/Getty Images)
And the longer the war lasts, the more chance there is for miscalculation, for military setbacks that could lead to drastic measures like Russia's feared use of limited nuclear weapons or global geopolitics outside of Ukraine playing into the conflict and it expands beyond its current borders.
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Future perspectives
"Unfortunately, the progressive Western stockpiling of weapons and supplies of military supplies and supplies to Ukraine, and China's increasingly defiant attitude toward the United States over Taiwan and the spy balloon scandal, have been as elements that are constituting the perfect storm. And without being pessimistic or fatalistic or a bird of bad omen, everything indicates that a situation is brewing that the conflict in Ukraine may escalate, cross the borders of Western Europe and could generate a confrontation already called world war," retired colonel Luis Alberto Villamarín, an expert in geopolitics, told CNN.
And it is very possible that an eventual Third World War outside the borders of Ukraine has nothing to do with the images we have of the two previous great wars.
But sometimes it's better not to imagine.
war in ukraine