Both U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and Ukrainian President Zelensky have recently "warned" China not to "lethally aid" Russia. Blinken's words are very domineering. He directly used the word "warn" (warning) to threaten China. Said that if it happened, it would face unprecedented serious consequences. Zelensky was relatively tactful and reserved. He expressed his affirmation of China's position since the start of the war, but he also made it clear that he hoped that China would not aid Russia, otherwise "there may be a third world war." ".
So, will China "deadly aid" Russia?
First of all, we need to understand what is "lethal".
"Lethality" not only refers to the performance and lethality of weapons, but also means that China's aid may fundamentally reverse the pattern of war, which will have "lethal" consequences for Ukraine and the West.
The Russian-Ukrainian war has continued to this day, and Russia’s battlefield performance can be said to be very inaccurate. After being beaten by the Ukrainian army, it can only lower the war goal all the way, shrinking to a limited area and relying on the natural danger of the river to stand by and wait for help.
The reasons for this, in addition to the nature of the war, military ideology and command level, are also inseparable from the gap between the two sides in terms of weapons and intelligence acquisition capabilities.
The weapons, equipment and information warfare capabilities of Russia and Ukraine were originally at the same level, and Russia still has a certain degree of advantage. However, the weapons and intelligence assistance from the United States and Europe have greatly improved the combat level of Ukraine, forming a significant generational gap with Russia. Ukraine not only successfully reversed the situation of the war, but also created continuous "bloodletting" pressure on Russia.
According to the Russian military's weapons and information warfare capabilities, it is almost impossible to reverse the situation of the war. No matter how many troops Putin puts on the battlefield, as long as the United States and Europe follow up to increase the level of military assistance, Russia will only be passively beaten.
The first anniversary of the Russia-Uzbekistan War (31): On February 21, 2023, Putin delivered his first State of the Union address since the start of the war, criticizing Western countries led by the United States for instigating conflicts, seeking "unlimited power", and wanting to turn regional conflicts into global confrontations. And announced Russia's suspension of participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the United States and Russia.
The picture shows Putin's State of the Union speech on February 21.
(Reuters)
However, if China provides Russia with battlefield intelligence and some advanced combat weapons, such as drones, long-range fire weapons, tanks, etc., the result may not be certain.
China is a large industrial manufacturing country. Since the Gulf War, it has made rapid progress in information warfare and the above-mentioned military industry. According to the data that Jin Canrong, a professor at the School of International Relations at Renmin University of China, has not been able to verify, China’s military industry has only played at most 15% of its production capacity.
If China starts production at full capacity and continuously provides Russia with weapons and intelligence information support, even if it cannot help Russia win quickly, it will be a "fatal" nightmare for Ukraine, the United States and Europe if it is consumed for a long time.
Secondly, there are two different possibilities for the discussion of "whether or not".
From the perspective of general public interests, China will not "lethally assist" Russia.
Because aid may indeed cause China and the United States and Europe to split from differences and accelerate the world's entry into a new Cold War pattern, which is quite detrimental to China's economic and people's livelihood, technological development, and rise and rejuvenation.
If the consequence of the split is only a split between China and the United States, China will most likely not mind.
However, considering that most countries in Europe and the world are opposed to Russia's war and are determined to punish Russia, and considering that the breakdown of relations with Europe may have a wide and profound impact on China's future and the world structure, China will not do so unless it is absolutely necessary. Take this step.
In fact, since the leaders of China and the United States met in Bali, Indonesia last November, even Sino-US relations have undergone some technical recovery adjustments.
With the end of the epidemic prevention and control and the start of economic efforts, China really needs to use Sino-US relations as a breakthrough to ease certain external factors that are not conducive to development and reopening. Once China makes a directional decision, it generally has a strong Strategic determination will not be easily adjusted. If it were not for the sudden balloon incident, there is a high probability that Blinken has already visited China, and Sino-US relations have been repaired to some extent.
Therefore, from the perspective of general interests, China should not provide "lethal assistance" to Russia.
But what about the non-general interest perspective?
At the beginning of the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea, from the perspective of general interests, most people judged that China would not send troops to North Korea.
At that time, not only were there different opinions within the CCP, but the United States and the Soviet Union also made research and judgments that China would not send troops.
But then China not only sent troops to North Korea, but also almost gambled its entire family fortune and the fate of the country, composing the historical feat of "resisting US aggression and aiding Korea".
The Air Force of the Chinese People's Volunteers participating in the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea.
(Central Military)
Looking back now, Mao Zedong and other decision makers in this war were not troubled by the perspective of general interests, but detached from general interest judgments, and made the decision to send troops from the perspective of the country's long-term interests and strategic considerations.
However, most people at that time, including the United States and the Soviet Union, were trapped by the perspective of general interests and made a wrong judgment that China would not send troops.
So, is there a "non-general interest" perspective that transcends general interests today?
Is it to the point of "deadly aiding" Russia even if it breaks with the entire West?
The research and judgment of these two issues by the top decision-makers of the CCP is not known to the outside world.
But when the United States and Ukraine are "warning" like that, with the pervasive intelligence capabilities of the United States and Russia's national security capabilities full of loopholes, most people still tend to believe that the United States should have stolen something from the corner of the Kremlin.
Whether China will "lethally assist" Russia may soon be revealed, or it may still be a mystery.
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