An expert on the Russian elite reports an alleged change in mood in Moscow.
Should Vladimir Putin fear for his power?
The journalist has an objection.
Munich/Moscow - More than 145,000 Russian soldiers are said to have been killed or wounded in the Ukraine war.
This was reported by the Ukrainian media project
The Kyiv Independent
on February 23, 2023 shortly before the anniversary, citing the General Staff in Kiev.
Current numbers on alleged (or actual) losses, on the other hand, have not been available from Russia for a long time.
Russia: Is support for Vladimir Putin crumbling in the Moscow elite?
Nevertheless, mothers, wives, children, fathers, brothers, neighbors and friends are waiting, sometimes in vain, for the mostly male soldiers to return.
Just one example: In the ZDF documentary “Russia and the Great Silence”, a priest from the city of Yaroslavl on the Volga says that he “had to read the last mass to the dead.
There were quite a few.
They were military.
(...) Well, quite a lot of people died”.
And yet the population is not defending itself against the costly war, known in Russia as a special operation?
What would resistance look like?
By holding Russian President Vladimir Putin accountable and deposing him?
According to a British journalist, support for Putin within the Moscow elite is crumbling.
In the video: Compact - The most important news about the Russia-Ukraine war
“I have many good contacts from my time in Russia.
Some of them continue to speak to me, mostly through encrypted messengers.
They're civil servants, diplomatic circles, bankers, billionaires," Catherine Belton told the
Mirror
.
With the book "Putin's Net" she has written the most well-founded report on the inner workings of the Kremlin to date.
The investigative journalist first reported from Moscow in 1998 and now writes for the
Washington Post
.
Coup against Vladimir Putin?
"Some of his allies are not happy"
"Some of his close allies are not happy with the current situation.
Igor Sechin, the president of Rosneft, or Sergei Chemezov, who heads the state-owned armaments conglomerate and with whom Putin has been friends since his days in Dresden, see their economic empires under pressure because of the sanctions," she explains: "But I'm afraid they don't have the courage to protest against the war.”
In addition, most Russians are depressed, “but too scared to do anything.
You can see how harshly protesters are being cracked down on: You can be sentenced to 15 years in prison just for calling the war a war.
If there is a revolt, it will come from the elite,” Belton said. “My informants are currently talking about Putin in a way I have never heard before.”
Ukraine war: "The Moscow elite talks about Putin's possible replacement, about possible successors"
Because: The Ukraine war have "nullified their decades of work, their wealth, their influence," she tells Der
Spiegel
: "My sources see with horror that Russia has lost its soft power." She told of her sources: "The Muscovites Elite talks about Putin's possible replacement, about possible successors."
September was a turning point, “when Putin was forced to break his promise and announce partial mobilization.
Since then, he has no longer been untouchable," she said. "My informants are increasingly saying that historically Russia is a country of coups." However, the Moscow elite would probably only dare to overthrow "if Russia suffers serious military losses," she analyzed She: "As long as there is a chance that Putin will win the war, no one will take action against him."
Possible end of Putin's power: through military defeat plus uprising of the elites?
Other experts, on the other hand, believe that the fighting will end if Putin is defeated in the war.
"The Russian attack on Ukraine was the biggest strategic mistake I've witnessed in my life," said the well-known American political scientist Francis Fukuyama (Standford University) to the news portal t-online : "Ukraine can defeat Russia, I
have
it I have no doubt.
Putin's defeat is only a matter of time.” Not only Fukuyama believes that Ukraine can even reconquer Crimea, which was annexed in 2014.
The Moscow elite is talking about Putin's possible replacement, about possible successors.
Catherine Belton, British investigative journalist
Former US General Ben Hodges believes Ukraine can bring about a military victory to overthrow Putin this summer.
He said so in an interview with Peter Salmaev, director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative, and Ukrainian military blogger Taras Berezovets.
"If they conquer Crimea, and I think they can do that this summer, then everything will fall," said the former commander-in-chief of the US land forces for Europe.
Hodges: Crimea is the key.
Ukraine War: Will Russia Even Lose Crimea?
The Ukrainian Minister of the Interior, Ihor Klymenko, recently stated exactly this goal.
"We have already begun to form units aimed at liberating our territories and reaching internationally recognized borders," the American news magazine
Newsweek
quoted Klymenko as saying.
A reference to Crimea, which the West continues to regard as Ukrainian territory.
+
Goal of the Ukrainian army?
The Crimea on the Black Sea, which is also used by Russia for tourism.
© IMAGO/Konstantin Mihalchevskiy
A mixture of military defeat and uprising of the elites as the end of Putin's power?
The Kremlin is in fact deeply divided, said US Russia expert Mark N. Katz in an interview with the
Kyiv Post
.
The George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government professor believes a coup against Putin is possible.
One indication is the open criticism of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozchin towards the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Coup against Vladimir Putin in Moscow?
Kremlin connoisseur warns
However, journalist Belton warned: "The country has 143 million inhabitants - Ukraine only around 40 million.
In terms of sheer quantity, Putin will win.
No matter how bad his army is.
Putin seems willing to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of men.
He expects a long war."
(pm)