The First Anniversary of the Russo-Ukraine War｜Who Is Opposing China's Peace Plan?

On the first anniversary of the Russia-Uzbekistan conflict on February 24, China will release a position paper on the political settlement of the Russia-Ukraine war. In addition, according to China’s top diplomat Wang Yi’s recent visits to France, Italy and Russia, China has a peace plan on resolving the Russia-Ukraine issue, and Xi Jinping may make a peace speech on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Whether it is a position paper, a peace plan, or a peace speech, it is basically certain that China will make big moves on the Russia-Ukraine issue.

The purpose of Wang Yi's visit this time is to lay the groundwork for informing all parties in advance.

Regarding China's peace plan, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that Wang Yi shared "key elements of China's peace plan" during their meeting in Germany earlier this week.

He added: "We look forward to receiving the document because, you know, it's not something you can jump to immediately after just hearing it.

Wang Yi (right), member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, meets Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba (left) at request on February 18, 2023, while attending the Munich Security Conference (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China)

Bloomberg reported that Wang Yi's proposal was immediately questioned locally, with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stating that any peace agreement must be conditional on Russia's withdrawal from Ukraine, "a just peace does not mean that the aggressor will get payback.".

Voice of America reported that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken does not believe that Beijing has the qualifications to act as a war mediator, but suspects that Beijing is considering supplying Moscow with lethal weapons.

He warned Wang Yi that there would be serious consequences if Beijing crossed the line.

According to Reuters, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said in a statement that when Sergei Lavrov and Wang Yi met on February 22, they did not discuss China's reported peace proposal on the Ukraine issue. .

"The Chinese side briefed us on their views on the root causes of the crisis in Ukraine and on the way to solve the problem at the political level. No separate plans were talked about."

Wang Yi visited Moscow on February 22 and met with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

(Reuters)

Wang Yi arrived in Moscow on the 21st and held talks with Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council on the same day. On the 22nd, he met with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and was received by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

As Russia's "Business Consulting Daily" said on the 21st, Wang Yi visited Moscow with China's "peace plan" on the Ukrainian crisis, so it has attracted attention from all walks of life.

But why does Zakharova say she doesn't have any separate plans?

A noteworthy detail is that Putin told Wang Yi that he was looking forward to Xi Jinping's visit.

Putin said that he understands that China has a domestic political agenda, but believes that with the resolution of the relevant agenda, the two sides will reach an arrangement for Xi Jinping's visit to Russia through a private meeting.

Putin also emphasized that this will provide additional impetus for the development of Sino-Russian relations.

What does Putin mean by reaching an arrangement for Xi Jinping's visit to Russia in the form of private meetings?

Is Xi Jinping's visit to Russia not an official visit or a state visit, but a private meeting with Putin?

Another detail that cannot be ignored is that Wang Yi’s visits to Russia in the past paved the way for Xi Jinping’s overseas visits. The Chinese press release did not shy away from pointing out that Xi Jinping will visit Russia.

However, the three press releases on Wang Yi’s visit to Russia issued by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not mention Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit to Russia.

The direct participants in the conflict are Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine's response to China's peace plan needs further evaluation. As a weaker party, there is no room for direct acceptance or opposition.

Although Russia welcomes China to play an active role in resolving the Ukrainian crisis, it does not admit that there is a separate peace plan. It is meaningful. Is China’s plan not a separate plan in Russia’s view, but an established plan that Russia has known before, or does it not want to do so at all? Recognize China's plan so that there are variables in Xi Jinping's visit?

The United States has always accused China of being a supporter of Russia and a challenger to the world.

It is obvious that the United States will not support China's plan.

Although European countries have not clearly supported or opposed China's peace plan, the tit-for-tat speeches made by the presidents of the United States and Russia a few hours ago have already shown their attitude towards who is the real master of the situation.

From the current point of view, it is very difficult for China's peace plan to gain support and then be implemented.

If it is foreseeable that it will not be effective, it is worth pondering what the intention of China's peace plan is.

When did Russia invade Ukraine?

On February 24, 2022, the Russian army rushed to Kiev in the name of "special military operations", intending to quickly take the Ukrainian capital.

In the early morning of that day, the Russian army invaded Ukraine in four directions from the east, south, north, and northeast.

What about the war casualties of the Russia-Ukraine war?

According to a new Norwegian estimate, the total casualties of the Russian army are about 180,000, and the Ukrainian army has 100,000 casualties.

Other Western sources mention losses of around 150,000 on each side.

In addition, tens of thousands of civilians were killed or injured by the fighting. The United Nations reported that more than 7,000 civilians were confirmed dead and more than 13,000 were injured.

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