The first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is celebrated with all the actors in the war making war preparations.
Under current conditions, none of the protagonists of this new European tragedy would think of planning peace.
Two opposing offensives
are underway .
An immediate one from the Russians promoted by Vladimir Putin himself, who more than two months ago ordered that the occupation of the Donbas region in the east, the richest in Ukraine and on the border with Russia, should be completed by March, which contains the two small pro-Russian republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, already incorporated into the mother country “forever”.
The Russians are on the offensive to occupy the city of Bakhmut, in an ongoing series of
bloody battles
.
But so far it has managed to occupy only half of the Donbas region.
The conquest of the region would allow the Russian president to claim the victory that he has not achieved so far in his year of invasion, in which
he erred almost all strategic calculations
and must get out of the quagmire.
Fire in an apartment building after a Russian attack near Bakhmut, in the Donetsk region, on Tuesday.
Photo: EFE
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The Ukrainian offensive
The other offensive is that of the Ukrainians, scheduled for April, conditioned by the arrival of new weapons promised by the US, the 27 European countries, Canada and Australia, which with ultra-modern tanks and armored vehicles, new missile and anti-missile systems, special helicopters and other wits, should favor a fatal turnaround for the Russians.
This offensive is due to its characteristics
a great enigma
.
The effort to get the indispensable new weapons to Ukraine and ensure a complex training of the local military and technicians, plus the arrival of waves of ammunition to sustain the battlefields, stop the Russian advances and advance, supposes almost a miracle of efficiency. and coordination.
The Ukrainians have shown that they are capable of doing this.
The allies' plans are
very ambitious
.
Apparently the spring offensive, as they call it, would not be concentrated in the east, in the Donbas, but would aim to attack the Russians in the true heart of their strategic device, which is defined by a single name:
Crimea
.
The Russians recaptured Crimea in 2014, laying the groundwork for today's war.
It was a great move by Vladimir Putin.
The peninsula that houses the great Russian naval base of Sevastopol, which ensures control of the Black Sea, belonged to Ukraine, which had proclaimed itself independent after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.
A damaged hospital after a Russian bombing raid in Mariupol, in a 2022 image. Photo: AP
It was vital for Russia's ambitions to become a superpower to recover it, and they did so by postponing a war that Putin's excessive ambition revived a year ago with the invasion.
The risk of a devastating escalation
Targeting Crimea in the biggest offensive of the war means challenging Russia openly.
War preparations dominate these days leading up to the anniversary, next Friday, February 24, 2022. If they are successful,
the war will heat up
and Putin will put new threats on the table that he will react by firing
atomic charges with
hypersonic missiles
. reduced power but devastating impact that will put the world closer than ever to a Third World War.
Today there are winds in that direction.
NATO and the US insist that they are not at war with Russia, but reality is inexorably denying these statements.
The Atlantic military alliance is in charge of urgently collecting the new weapons essential to sustain the Ukrainians.
And the new phase brings Russia face to face with the US and its partners in the Atlantic military alliance.
To save Ukraine from defeat against Russia, it is necessary to provide it with
a gigantic technological leap in weapons
that require intense training of thousands of soldiers and that even includes fighters and bombers.
It is enough to cite the magnitude of the effort to understand how it inevitably forces such a risky military scale between the West and Russia.
The presence in Kiev this Monday and in Poland this Tuesday of US President John Biden is
another concrete step by the US to get involved in the war
.
Poland is the NATO country that is rearming the most and that most sponsors the hard line against the Russians.
In addition, Biden was scheduled to meet in the Polish capital with the group of former members of the communist-era Warsaw Pact, which form the core of the defense of the eastern flank of the Atlantic alliance against the Russians.
German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz said: "We must prepare for a long conflict."
Nobody denied it.
Dangerous games
The problem is that the war is clearly
deepening and spreading.
Russia has sent a dozen warships to the Mediterranean and other ships equipped with nuclear weapons to the Baltic Sea.
Russian planes probe NATO defenses in depth.
The most recent incident forced the fighters of three or four NATO countries that monitor the skies over Poland and Romania to be put on alert and flown.
These games are dangerous because any spark can cause a serious military crisis.
The Russians know this but are interested in impressing the Europeans and adding to the already consistent number of citizens who in polls say it is better not to send any more military aid to Ukraine so as not to provoke the atomic wrath of the Russians.
The scenario is one of
general rearmament
.
All European countries are expanding their war budgets and are beginning to openly face civil and military mobilization programs to strengthen their defenses.
Europe is paying a high economic price for the conflict, but there is no way to back down.
Sweden and Finland have asked to join NATO, dealing a major strategic blow to Russia.
Staunch neutrals for decades, the invasion of Ukraine convinced them that only under the nuclear umbrella of the Atlantic alliance are they protected from Russian threats.
The strategic damage suffered by the Russians through their own fault is enormous, because if Sweden and Finland join NATO they will turn the Baltic Sea into a lake of the Atlantic alliance.
So far the Russians have reacted by sending atomic missile ships on patrol, which they haven't done for thirty years.
In any case, the great step of Sweden and Finland reinforces the reality of armed peace that is winning over Europe, filling it with nerves.
Western strategists stress that Russia is reserving
a crucial weapon
in the war that it can draw at any moment: aviation.
Until now, in the large Russian base of Tarangog, neighboring the Donbas, and in the other military airports that support the first line in Ukrainian territory, there is no greater concentration of combat aircraft.
Russian aviation has been shown to be almost absent.
There are those who attribute it to deficiencies in the preparation of pilots and precision bombs.
It is believed that there is another factor and it is the will of the Kremlin to keep the most modern weapons in reserve for an eventual escalation of the war.
It is estimated that the Russians could have 1,500 fighters and bombers to use in a massive offensive.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned: "We know they have a strong capability in this sector and the Ukrainian air defense is not enough."
Ukraine's aviation has suffered heavy losses and both President Zelenski and the Ukrainian military chiefs are urging the allies to
demand the urgent dispatch of combat aircraft.
At the recent meeting between Zelensky and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in London, the issue was on the table.
The English promised to act immediately but warned of difficulties.
It is necessary to choose the models and send the planes to Ukraine.
Military training
The most complex chapter is that of training.
It makes it necessary to send a consistent number of instructors to handle the material.
The pilots will be trained in British territory, but the presence of English soldiers in Ukraine is also necessary.
Time is pressing but it is estimated that at least six months is the period necessary to get the first aircraft flying with the Ukrainian flag and pilots.
The United States appears reluctant to supply planes because of the risk that attacks involving Russian territory could lead to a rapid escalation of the war.
Outside of the British, France, Canada, Germany and other countries that could supply air force have so far failed to respond to urgent Ukrainian requests.
Russians don't sleep.
In February, Russian fighter air raids with remote-guided missiles were recorded against targets identified as ammunition depots in strategic locations.
The Russians have increased the launch from planes of Krypton missiles that detect Ukrainian radars and follow the impulses until they are destroyed.
Until the new weapons arrive, Russian bombers will have the advantage, in the impending offensive, of punishing the Ukrainians in the Donbas and other regions from high altitudes.
Rome, correspondent
BC
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