US has monitored China-Russia relationship since 2022, says official 1:52
(CNN)
The United States has intelligence that the Chinese government is considering providing Russia with drones and munitions for use in the war in Ukraine, three sources familiar with the intelligence told CNN.
Now, it appears that Beijing has not made a final decision yet, the sources clarified, but negotiations between Russia and China on the price and scope of the equipment are ongoing.
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Since it invaded Ukraine a year ago, Russia has repeatedly requested drones and ammunition from China, the sources familiar with the intelligence said.
And the Beijing leadership has been actively debating over the past few months whether or not to send the deadly aid, the sources added.
US intelligence officials have been collecting information over the past few weeks, however it suggests that China is now leaning more towards providing the equipment.
Last week, the United States and its allies began publicly warning about possible Chinese military support for Russia, in an effort to discourage Beijing from continuing along that line and crossing a point of no return in terms of being considered a pariah in the world stage, US officials said.
US officials did not describe in detail what intelligence Washington has that points to the recent change in China's stance, but there is enough concern among senior officials to actively share that information with allies and partners over the past week.
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The National Security Council and the State Department declined to comment on the matter.
CNN also requested comment from the Chinese and Russian embassies in Washington.
Asked Friday about the possible sale of lethal equipment to Russia, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told a daily briefing that "China has always taken a prudent and responsible approach to military exports and does not provide for any arms sales to areas of conflict or belligerents."
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The supply of drones and ammunition -- which would likely be for small arms like handguns rather than larger artillery, according to the sources -- would represent a significant increase in Beijing's support for Moscow, which to date has been largely limited. Chinese companies that provide Russian forces with non-lethal equipment such as helmets, body armor and satellite imagery.
It would also provide a potentially significant boost to Russia's capabilities at a critical time.
Russian fighters are running so low on ammunition that Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, on Wednesday published photos of several dozen dead men belonging to the group, publicly blaming their deaths on the Russian Defense Ministry's inability to supply them with enough ammunition.
The German publication
Der Spiegel
was the first to report that China could provide attack drones to Russia.
"The concern we have now is based on the information we have collected that they are considering providing lethal support, and we have made it very clear to them that this would cause a serious problem for us and our relationship," Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned. last weekend.
Blinken's Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, responded to the US accusations earlier this week, saying China's position on Ukraine "can simply be expressed as promoting peace talks."
"China will continue to stand firm on the side of dialogue and peace, and play a constructive role in easing the situation," he said.
China also proposed a "peace plan" for the Ukraine war on Friday that US officials remain highly skeptical of.
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Russia has bought hundreds of weapons-capable drones from Iran in recent months, but is rapidly burning them with repeated strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian areas.
To date, Beijing has been hesitant to provide lethal equipment that could be traced back to China due to the risk of international pushback.
And Beijing still wants the provision of any equipment to Russia to be denyable and ideally not attributable, the sources said.
That is why much of the non-lethal support Russia's Army has received from Beijing to date has been small and delivered through Chinese companies.
As previously reported by CNN, the Biden administration has directly confronted China over that military assistance to determine how complicit the central government has been.
But the lines between public and private entities in China are blurred, the sources said, and US intelligence suggests Beijing has been using the companies for plausible deniability.
The United States has also begun to see "disturbing trend lines" in China's support for the Russian military, officials said.
Wang visited Russia this week and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow in the coming months.
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