After a year of war in Ukraine, political scientist Gerhard Mangott sees no prospect of an end - and under certain conditions the risk of a Russian use of nuclear weapons.
Moscow/Kiev - One year ago today, the world woke up with a shock: Russia had invaded Ukraine in the night and bombed the country.
People fled to air raid shelters, there were first deaths.
Since then, Russia's warmongering in Ukraine has not stopped, with a terrible result: countless dead, homeless and refugees, destroyed cities and villages, a bombed-out infrastructure.
How will the Ukraine war continue after this first year?
Will the conflict escalate further?
Will Russian President Vladimir Putin ever resort to nuclear weapons?
Or is there a peaceful solution?
Political scientist Prof. Dr.
Interview with Gerhard Mangott from the University of Innsbruck.
Mr. Mangott, Putin gave a lengthy state of the nation address on Tuesday ahead of the anniversary of the Ukraine war.
What message did you notice?
I found it remarkable that Putin said that the West wanted to turn the local conflict in Ukraine into an international conflict and was thereby “endangering the existence of the Russian state”.
This is exactly the formulation that is also found in the Russian doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons.
This is one of the conditions under which Russia can use nuclear weapons in a conventional war.
Does this mean that Putin will soon resort to tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war?
Well, it wasn't the first time the Kremlin had threatened nuclear weapons.
But I found it remarkable that Putin used exactly the wording from the nuclear doctrine.
I think Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons, but possible.
There is a risk of that, I think, especially in the case of Ukrainian attacks on the Crimean peninsula.
Retaking Crimea would mean Putin's fall, and he is determined to prevent that.
If Crimea is at risk, I wouldn't rule out Putin using tactical nuclear weapons.
Putin's nuclear threats just a bluff?
"The residual risk is too high"
If this danger exists, what are the consequences for the West?
There are basically two camps in the West.
One camp thinks Putin's threat of nuclear weapons is nothing but a bluff and he's only doing it to incite fear.
Despite such threats, Ukraine must be armed in such a way that it can also recapture Crimea.
This would probably result in Putin's fall, which is the secondary goal, so to speak.
The other camp thinks nuclear threats might be a bluff, but we can't take chances if it's not.
Because the residual risk if Putin does follow his words with action is too high.
Therefore, one should not enable Ukraine to reconquer Crimea.
Do you belong to one of these two camps?
I tend towards the second camp.
So do you think there are red lines in supporting Ukraine?
In my opinion, it is important that we always combine the question of which weapons we want to supply Ukraine with the question of what we want to enable Ukraine to do militarily with them.
There are states that say it needs to be restored to how it was on February 23, 2022, and there are states that want to restore it to how it was before Russia occupied Crimea in 2014.
How is the Ukraine war going?
"Putin believes in a long war and even hopes for it"
The Ukraine war has now lasted exactly a year.
How do you think things will continue?
There is very likely to be a major Russian offensive soon, mainly in Donetsk province.
There, Ukraine still controls over 40 percent of the territory.
In the Luhansk region, too, Russia will want to recapture the areas that Ukraine has been able to win back for itself in the meantime.
The conquest of the Donbass is a declared goal of Russia in the Ukraine war, so from Putin's point of view these areas must be won in any case.
No one can say exactly when the Russian offensive will hit full force, probably within the next few weeks.
A Ukrainian counter-offensive is not to be expected as long as Ukraine does not have a large number of Western main battle tanks.
In his State of the Union address, Putin did not say exactly what his goals in the Ukraine war are.
No, but he said we will consistently pursue our goals step by step.
This suggests that Putin believes in, and even hopes for, an ongoing, long war.
The hope on the Russian side is that if the war lasts a year or more, the West will push Ukraine into peace negotiations and that Western support will wane.
Or that there will at least be a split in the West.
Namely to the Eastern European and Nordic countries on the one hand, which continue to demand support, and Germany and France on the other.
There is domestic pressure that support for Ukraine is waning and there is a call for negotiations.
A Year of Ukraine War: The Origins of the Conflict with Russia
A Year of Ukraine War: The Origins of the Conflict with Russia
Solution in the Ukraine war?
"Negotiations currently not an option"
How do you rate the chance for peace negotiations?
There is currently no room for negotiation.
When people ask for it, you have to tell them that it's not currently an option.
That would only be the case when both sides are militarily exhausted and forced to negotiate.
This is currently not the case for either the Russian or the Ukrainian side.
Interview: Stephanie Munk
Also interesting:
One year of war in Ukraine - how is the mood in Putin's Russia?