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The First Anniversary of the Russo-Ukraine War︱Poland’s role is important. How does Biden want to create a post-war situation?

2023-02-24T05:14:57.367Z


On the eve of the first anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine War, in the early morning of February 19, US President Joe Biden secretly flew to Poland, and then took a 10-hour train from the Polish-Ukrainian border into Ukraine, experiencing nearly 6 hours of lightning


On the eve of the first anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine War, in the early hours of February 19, US President Joe Biden secretly flew to Poland, and then took a 10-hour train from the Polish-Ukrainian border into Ukraine. On the 20th, he returned to Warsaw and started his visit to Poland.

During his stay in Poland, Biden first met with Polish President Andrzej Duda (Andrzej Duda) on the 21st and delivered a speech facing the world. On the 22nd, he met with leaders of nine NATO countries in Bucharest, including Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, and a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

In his speech on the 21st, Biden deliberately created an atmosphere in which the United States firmly supports Ukraine in a protracted war.

It begins by noting that "difficult and painful days ahead" as Russia's invasion of Ukraine approaches the one-year mark, but that in any case the United States and its allies "will not waver" in the so-called "global struggle between democracy and autocracy". , the United States will not back down in any way, "the democracies of the world will defend freedom today, tomorrow and forever."

Second, Biden also emphasized the unity of NATO, and repeatedly stated in his speech that although Putin (Vladimir Putin) expects NATO to be divided due to war, NATO is not divided. "We must have security in Europe." NATO " Probably the most important alliance in history" and "stronger than ever".

On the surface, Biden's trip is a trip to "support Ukraine". The visit to Poland is just to take advantage of the location to go to Kiev, but it is not the case.

Judging from the overall itinerary of the United States, the focus of the visit to Ukraine is the media publicity effect of the anniversary of the war, and the announcement of a new wave of small military aid of 500 million U.S. dollars, in fact, has no significant impact on the direction of the war; but the visit to Poland and participation in Bucharest The (Bucharest) Nine-Nation Leaders Summit highlighted the United States’ intention to further integrate NATO’s eastern wing and even lay out the post-war geopolitical structure, in which Poland will play an important role.

On February 20, in Kiev, Ukraine, Biden walked in the corridor of the train.

Biden made a surprise visit to Ukraine. He took a train in Poland and arrived in Kiev after a nearly 10-hour drive.

(Reuters)

Why Poland is acting positively

Since the outbreak of the war, Poland has become the geographical frontline connected to Ukraine. It is not only an important channel for NATO countries to export arms to Ukraine, but also bears the brunt of spillover costs such as refugee flows. In November 2022, a Ukrainian S-300 air defense missile fell into a Polish village. The accident that resulted in the death of two Polish citizens sparked discussions on "whether NATO declared war" at that time, and Poland quickly became the focus of the world.

However, looking at it from another perspective, Poland does not only pay but does not demand.

On May 22, 2022, Duda went to the Verkhovna Rada (National Parliament) of Ukraine to give a speech. At the same time, he brought several major foreign affairs negotiations: Bosnia and Ukraine signed the "Neighborhood Agreement" (Neighborhood Agreement), the establishment of joint border customs control (joint border customs control) and Uzbekistan granting "special legal status" to citizens in Uzbekistan, both of which will help improve the flow of talents and goods between the two countries.

Although the above-mentioned measures have aroused public opinion of "annexing Western Ukraine", in all fairness, even if Poland has this ambition, there are still many practical obstacles to achieve this goal, so it can be regarded as unrealistic before it is said to be true. conspiracy theory.

Compared with the illusory "annexation of Western Ukraine", Poland actually has more specific political and strategic goals.

First of all, Poland hopes to change the negative image of the EU as a "human rights depression" and reduce the space for external constraints.

In October 2015, the right-wing Law and Justice Party won the general election in Poland, marking a major resurgence of conservative political forces. Its political elites often make controversial statements that are not in line with the "political correctness" of the EU, such as "the government has a responsibility to protect Poland. People are protected from epidemics that refugees may bring", "LGBTQ is an ideology that foreign forces infiltrated Poland, and it is more destructive to human beings than communism", which aroused dissatisfaction from the outside world.

In January 2021, Poland introduced the most stringent abortion law in Europe, stipulating that women are only allowed to have abortions under extreme circumstances such as sexual assault and life-threatening. Of course, the EU severely condemned Poland for "violating human rights", "Democratic regression".

U.S. President Joe Biden meets Polish President Andrzej Duda on February 21, 2023 (Reuters)

However, after the outbreak of the war, Poland provided massive assistance to Ukraine and assisted in hosting Ukrainian refugees, successfully gaining the high ground of international morality. They can only turn a blind eye to the ongoing "human rights violations" and "democratic retrogression".

From this point of view, Duda successfully used the black swan of the Russia-Ukraine war to win political maneuvering space for himself.

Second, Poland intends to shape a substantial geographical buffer zone to obtain security conditions.

Since the first color revolution in Ukraine in 2004, Poland’s policy towards Ukraine has centered around the theme of “There is no free Poland without free Ukraine.” To put it more directly, once Ukraine becomes “pro-Russian,” Poland will security will cease to exist.

Therefore, after the outbreak of the war, although Poland did not imagine that Ukraine could win a big victory, it clearly intended to resist the collapse of the Ukrainian pro-American regime. Variables, such as the collapse of the Putin regime, the collapse of the Russian economy and the forced withdrawal of troops, etc.

Of course, judging from the results, with the assistance of NATO, the Ukrainian army did successfully resist the frontline offensive of the Russian army. The "referendum on joining Russia" shows the determination to disintegrate Ukraine.

Today, it is very difficult for Ukraine to completely expel the Russian army, but the Russian army is also unable to take down the entire territory of Ukraine. Regardless of the outcome of the war, a divided Ukraine is basically a foregone conclusion.

Faced with such a complicated situation, Poland must ensure its own security buffer space. If Eastern Ukraine has become an abandoned piece, all it can do is to strengthen its ties with the rest of Ukraine, strengthen its own armed forces, and ensure international peace. Will sit back and watch Russia threaten Poland.

And this consideration coincides with the current layout plan of the United States: strengthening the military presence on the eastern wing of NATO.

US President Biden delivered a speech in Warsaw, Poland on February 21.

(Reuters)

US layout considerations

Looking back on the past, such a plan is not without precedent, but embedded in the NATO eastward expansion agenda, accompanied by the friction between the United States and Russia and gradually becoming stronger.

After the Crimean crisis in 2014, Russia fears prevailed in Eastern European countries, and NATO's military deployment also plans to move eastward.

At the Warsaw Summit in 2016, the member states agreed to establish a frontier presence in the northeast and southeast of the group. This plan was first implemented in 2017. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland thus established four battalion-level multinational combat The group is led by the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany and the United States, but its overall command is vested in Poland-based NATO Northeast Command, which has been fully operational since December 2018.

After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022, NATO expanded the above-mentioned battle groups in March and agreed to build four more multinational battle groups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia.

Such an arrangement will allow as many as eight multinational battle groups to appear on the eastern flank of NATO, directly doubling the number of ground troops.

In June 2022, the NATO Madrid Summit adopted a new resolution to expand the multi-national battle group on the eastern flank from the battalion level to the brigade level "when and where needed", and agreed to establish a new NATO strike force.

For the United States, Ukraine is just one of the pawns in the game against Russia. Its existing value does not have to be realized until it joins NATO. Judging from the degree of its border with Russia, it is enough to show a pro-American and anti-Russian posture Form a strategic containment and provocation against Moscow.

However, after the Crimean crisis in 2014 and the outbreak of the Russo-Ukraine War in 2022, the split of Ukraine will most likely become a foregone conclusion. , It is also destined to be a relatively fragile front line; and even if Russia and Ukraine can cease fire following the North Korean model, small confrontations with constant friction may become the norm.

01 Video: Understanding the One-Year Russo-Ukraine War in Five Minutes

On February 20, 2023, US President Joe Biden made his first whirlwind visit to Ukraine since the start of the war.

During his visit, he announced a new $500 million military aid package and met with Zelensky.

The picture shows two people walking outside St. Michael's Golden-Domed Monastery on February 20.

The air defense siren sounded once when Biden left, but in the end there was no bombing or missile attack.

(Reuters)

Under such circumstances, NATO’s eastern wing must have another military center of gravity, which is sufficient to consolidate the front wing other than Ukraine, and at the same time act as a military backing for Ukraine. Considering the existing military size and bilateral mutual trust with the United States, Poland is obviously the most important good choice.

First, Poland has been a major military power on the eastern flank since joining NATO in 1999, both because of the deployment strength required by its strategic location and because of its economic growth, which will facilitate the rapid modernization and expansion of the Polish armed forces .

According to the 2023 global military strength rankings released by the well-known military website "Global Firepower" (Global Firepower, referred to as GFP), the Polish military ranks 20th in the world in combat power, which is among the best among small countries.

Second, Poland's political stance is quite trusted by the United States.

Before the outbreak of the Russo-Ukraine War, Western public opinion ridiculed Poland for suffering from "Russiaphobia" and "Yalta Syndrome" (worries that the West would sacrifice Poland in order to reach a consensus with Russia), which shows that its anti-Russian tendency is natural; According to a 2022 poll conducted by the You Research Center, as many as 91% of Poles have a favorable opinion of the United States, which is higher than the range of 65%-75% in previous years. In addition, 82% of Poles expressed their belief that Biden will do the right thing in world affairs. thing.

In short, the pro-American stance is equally unquestionable.

Since the outbreak of the war in 2022, the United States has sent a large number of troops to Poland. At present, about 11,000 U.S. troops are rotating in Poland, breaking the previous record.

According to US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Biden’s visit will focus on discussing military deployment plans with Poland. % increased to 4%, the highest among NATO member states.

The Russo-Ukraine war will end one day, but with Sweden and Finland applying to join the treaty, Poland's military role has risen, and NATO's encirclement of Russia still exists and continues to strengthen.

In the final analysis, the ultimate goal of the United States is still to form strategic oppression against Russia, so it does not spare the smoke and blood and tears of Ukraine, but wants to take advantage of the situation to create a new East Wing structure.

Russia may be able to use this war to dismember Ukraine, but it may usher in a more complex and treacherous security pattern after the war.

Which country will Biden visit first before visiting Poland?

Ukraine.

What is the focus of the talks between Biden and Poland this time?

Increase the deployment of US troops in Poland and extend the schedule.

Famous Russian scholar: Russia-Ukraine war ceasefire is still waiting for a condition|Experts have something to say about the first anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war︱War is not a black and white choiceExperts warn Taiwan to be careful not to use guns and misfires When?

Biden makes a surprise visit to Ukraine and pushes a new $500 million military aid plan, including rockets and anti-tank weapons Kiev Biden's flash visit to Kiev "Secret Journey": Traveling from Poland by train to fellow journalists to keep secret

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2023-02-24

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