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When and how could the war in Ukraine come to an end? Five possible scenarios for an outcome

2023-02-24T14:38:49.496Z


Here are five possible scenarios for the end of Russia's war in Ukraine one year after its start. How and under what conditions could Russia use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine? 2:20 (CNN Spanish) -- Two questions continue to capture the attention of the entire world at this time, one year after the start of the first fighting. When will the war in Ukraine end and how will the biggest war conflict Europe has seen since World War II conclude? Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, af


How and under what conditions could Russia use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine?

2:20

(CNN Spanish) --

Two questions continue to capture the attention of the entire world at this time, one year after the start of the first fighting.

When will the war in Ukraine end and how will the biggest war conflict Europe has seen since World War II conclude?

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, after months of escalation and troop buildup on the border as President Vladimir Putin blamed NATO — and Ukraine's willingness to join the alliance — for the crisis and escalated his warlike tone. in every speech.

  • Why did Russia attack and invade Ukraine?

    What are the reasons and origin of the conflict?

In the middle there is a long and tense history between Russia and Ukraine - a former Soviet republic and formerly controlled by the Russian Empire - especially after Moscow annexed the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea in 2014 and supported the rebels who rose up in the region. from Donbas.

Here are five possible scenarios, according to reports and expert opinions, for the end of a conflict that has left thousands dead and millions of refugees.

1. Total victory for Russia

At the beginning of the invasion, Russia advanced from the north, east and south and in the direction of the main cities of Ukraine.

Although it was unable to capture any and the speed of the attack has slowed due to stiff Ukrainian resistance and a series of successful counteroffensives by Kyiv, Russia maintains a clear military superiority over Ukraine in terms of troops and equipment, and has turned its focus to Donbas. , in the east, after withdrawing in the north and partially in the south.

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Ukraine, for its part, has been receiving military aid from the West, which in turn has launched a battery of sanctions against Russia that will make it more difficult for it to conduct the war.

This first scenario refers to the collapse of the Ukrainian resistance and a total victory, at the military level, of Russia, leading to a change of government or the partition of Ukraine.

All of Moscow's objectives would thus be fulfilled: consolidation of the annexation of Crimea, recognition of the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, disarmament of the Ukrainian army, and the end of Ukraine's initiatives to join NATO and the European Union. .

Subsequently, an empowered Russia may advance security negotiations with NATO or threaten the Baltic countries and Poland—formerly under USSR influence and now in NATO—or even Finland and Sweden that had remained neutral. , and recently, as a result of the war, they turned around and submitted their applications to join the Atlantic Alliance.

Ukrainians describe what it's like to live in Russia's peephole 3:42

Meanwhile, Russian-occupied Ukraine could still descend into insurgent chaos.

This scenario, which seemed very likely at the beginning of the conflict, seems increasingly distant due to the increasing participation of the United States and NATO -an investment that is as much political as defensive-, the demonstrated unity and capacity of the Ukrainians and the recent setbacks on the Russian front, which has reduced its ambitions and is now concentrating on Donbas.

2. Total victory for Ukraine

Ukrainians have shown unity and a willingness to fight, and President Volodymyr Zelensky even refused to leave the capital Kyiv when it was threatened by Russian forces at the start of the war.

The slowdown in Russia's advance on all fronts and its retreat even before the Ukrainian counteroffensives, and Moscow's appeals for international volunteers—added to a second mobilization—seem to show exhaustion in Russian troops, while Western arms shipments to Ukraine --which will now include tanks-- are intensifying and the effects of the sanctions, although less than expected, are felt more strongly in the Russian population.

Tense moments during the coverage of the Russian invasion in Ukraine 8:19

"The Russian economy will probably not survive under the perpetual weight of current and future sanctions," former US ambassadors Dennis Ross and Norman Eisen said in an opinion piece on CNN.

Although the Russian economy is still alive, it remains to be seen how much it will be able to support in the medium term.

In this scenario, the Russian military effort collapses, Ukraine mounts more counterattacks through which it recovers part or all of the lost territory, both in Crimea and in Donbas, and the situation leads to a peace agreement by which Russia, defeated He withdraws his troops and his claims on the country.

The consequences in Russia could be catastrophic, affecting Putin's continuity in government or leading the leader to increase internal repression and isolation of the country.

Although over time the lifting of sanctions would be negotiated, bringing relief to the population.

But despite some recent tactical defeats for Russia, this scenario remains unlikely for three big reasons.

Russia's nuclear arsenal remains a defining power attribute and a last deterrent card that would prevent total collapse (not a minor defeat or negotiated exit), while Russia's conventional military power remains far superior to Ukraine's (more Beyond the value and expertise of the Ukrainian troops, they depend on NATO support that cannot be infinite).

Finally, the Russian economy has proven to be much more resilient to sanctions than initially expected.

3. Negotiated exit

At the start of the war, delegations from Ukraine and Russia held several rounds of talks in an attempt to reach a peace agreement, with both sides stating early in the process that some progress had been made.

Later, they were discontinued, but the scope of a peace agreement continues to be an outcome sought by the international community.

In the context of those initial negotiations, Zelensky said on March 16 that the Russian delegation was becoming "more realistic" in its position.

While the Russian Foreign Minister, Serguei Lavrov, said in an interview with the state channel that there was "some hope of reaching an agreement."

A man walks near the remains of a missile in the eastern Ukrainian city of Lisichansk on May 26.

(Aris Messinis/AFP/Getty Images)

Added to these signs is a change of speech in Zelensky regarding the possibility of joining NATO.

“For years we have been hearing that the door is supposedly open (to NATO membership) but now we are hearing that we cannot enter.

And it is true, and you have to admit it, ”he said in March.

While Lavrov assured at the time that "the status of neutrality is now being seriously discussed together, of course, with security guarantees."

In this scenario, talks resume, perhaps with the support of a mediator (China has offered, although its strong ties to Russia could be a problem), until they become a serious negotiation that achieves a ceasefire agreement based on concessions—many of them very painful and difficult to maintain over time—for both parties.

The agreement would end the war, but would not necessarily bring a solution to the Crimean issue and the Donbas territories raised in 2014, even if Kyiv formally recognizes the situation.

But both sides will be able to claim a partial victory and the international community could then seek to lift sanctions and restore trade relations, although tensions will continue.

TOPSHOT - Refugees from Ukraine walk along the Ukrainian-Romanian border in Siret on March 2, 2022. - Refugees from Ukraine pour into Romania to escape the Russian invasion, and avoid huge traffic jams at the Polish border.

(Photo by Daniel MIHAILESCU / AFP) (Photo by DANIEL MIHAILESCU/AFP via Getty Images)

It is not clear, however, how long it might take for a deal to be reached, if it does happen, or how long it could survive.

Ross and Eisen noted that "if Russia does not achieve a decisive victory in the war, Ukraine could come to the negotiating table with greater advantages."

In fact, the Kremlin has recently said that the negotiations were frozen because of Ukraine.

"Negotiations are frozen by the decision of the Ukrainian side," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in a regular conference call.

4. Uncontrolled escalation

In this scenario, perhaps the least likely, Russia's military failure in its attempt to take control of all of Ukraine is consolidated, but Putin rejects any withdrawal and decides to escalate the conflict, probably by threatening to use its nuclear arsenal —as he already did. at the beginning of the conflict, one of the most powerful in the world.

Vice Foreign Minister of Ukraine: Latin America matters to us 4:21

Indeed, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN in March that the Biden administration is "concerned about the possibility of escalation" regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin's nuclear posture, although he noted that "we have not seen anything that would force us to change our nuclear posture at this time."

"We're watching this very closely, and obviously the risk of escalation with a nuclear power is serious, and it's a different type of conflict than other conflicts the American people have seen over the years," he added.

An escalation could involve the use of tactical nuclear weapons—lower-power warheads designed for use in the context of conventional conflict—against Ukrainian military and logistical targets, and is therefore perhaps an unlikely scenario.

But it could also lead to the threat of using strategic nuclear weapons against NATO members, whom Putin already views as enemies because of their military aid to Ukraine.

The consequences of an escalation of this level could be unimaginable for the planet, but it is to be expected that initially the tensions will turn on the former Soviet states —now within NATO— and that China will be forced to take a more active role.

This was the turning point for Biden to visit Kyiv 5:07

5. Stagnation

In this scenario, Russia's advance stalls on all fronts—as now seems to have happened in Donbas—but the invading troops fortify their positions and hold on to conquered territory.

Meanwhile, reinforcements and resources continue to arrive in Ukraine, such as the recent announcement of the shipment of Leopard 2, Challenger 2 and Abrams tanks.

The Ukrainians, meanwhile, achieve a defense that Russia cannot penetrate, but have difficulty going on the offensive and retaking their occupied territory.

Aid from the West is maintained, but NATO doses its participation to avoid further escalation.

The conflict, in this way and due to the failure of the peace talks, decreases in intensity and becomes a war of positions and artillery, similar to the one that since 2014 has faced the separatists in Donbas and the Ukrainian government, which it could last for years.

Meanwhile, living conditions in Russia worsen due to sanctions, and the country begins to look for possible alternatives that could bring it closer to China and India.

Also the population of Ukraine - whose economy fell by 30.4% in 2022 due to the war, according to Reuters - suffers harsh living conditions added to the bombing of its infrastructure, and the country needs more help from the West to maintain itself.

Russia could still win this long conflict, having more people and resources to face the wait than Ukraine, though its goals may be more moderate due to the stalemate.

The recent conquest of Mariupol, after a long siege, could make sense in this context, since it would end up connecting Crimea by land —annexed in 2014— and the territory of Russia, a resounding geopolitical achievement but falling short of Moscow's initial objectives. .

At the same time, a long war in Europe could then generate destabilizing effects throughout the region, similar to the dissolution of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, or the wars in Iraq, Syria and Yemen in the Middle East.

With information from Stephen Collinson, Ivana Kottasová, Olga Voitovich, Paul P. Murphy, Antonia Mortensen, Clare Foran, Niamh Kennedy, and Jeevan Ravindran

Editor's Note:

This article was originally published in March 2022 and updated in February 2023.

War in UkraineInstaNewsRussian News

Source: cnnespanol

All news articles on 2023-02-24

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