Argentina is facing a double crossroads that is getting worse.
The economic crisis is nothing new.
Instead, it is
the liquid state of the coalitions
that have been propping up the political system almost since the great crisis of 2001 was overcome.
By the way, an election year as mysterious as the present is not remembered.
At least since 2003, when Néstor Kirchner was crowned president for the desertion of Carlos Menem in the second round.
That coronation came with just 22% of the vote.
In 2007, the monarchy ceded control to Cristina Fernández, in the face of a collective state of observation.
In 2011 came the overwhelming re-election of the lady, spurred on by more powerful factors than her management.
In 2015 the Cambiemos alternative was consolidated.
In 2019, the epilogue of Mauricio Macri was sung, which was consolidated when Cristina invented the electoral device with Alberto Fernández as a candidate for president.
Observing that route, a conclusion could be reached:
to the decline of the force in the exercise of power, an alternative was always opposed.
Reality now points to a degree of disorganization in the Government and in the Frente de Todos
as never seen after the great crisis of this century.
The problem is that the political expression that could replace the deranged officialism still seems vacant.
Together for Change has not finished consolidating internally.
There are two factors that introduce another brushstroke into the landscape.
The irruption of the libertarian deputy Javier Milei;
a level of deep social weariness that casts a shadow over any future viability.
One of the central problems of that panorama is the role that concerns the leaders of the main forces.
Cristina and Mauricio Macri, despite their political anemia, continue to participate in the game.
With the vice president there is a unique situation: she is, according to the polls, the leader who retains the highest number of votes.
Not enough to win.
Despite this, she draws attention to the political deterioration that has been accompanying her since two moments: the defeat in the 2021 legislatures;
the progress of some of her cases for her corruption, one of which has a 6-year prison sentence in the first instance.
March would come loaded, in this field, with other novelties.
Chamber I of the Criminal Cassation Chamber must decide whether to invalidate the dismissal issued to Cristina and her children in the Los Sauces-Hotesur case and raise the lawsuit to a new oral trial.
The worst case scenario.
The trend in that court would not be auspicious.
But to dwell on the past would perhaps be to ignore the deep political problems that are brewing around the vice president.
The dismemberment produced in the official block of the Senate resembles a boycott within what has been his kingdom these years.
Cristina did what she wanted there.
She was to the point of fictitiously dividing the ruling party to win representatives in the Judicial Council.
She opened up a conflict with the Supreme Court.
She never thought that the blow would leak right there.
Two of the deserters (Edgardo Kueider and Carlos Espínola) belonged to the National and Popular Front linked to the PJ.
The others (Guillermo Snopek and María Cataflamo) to Citizen Unity.
Invented masks to carry out the judicial war.
It would be necessary to notice a couple of other details.
Cataflamo responds to the governor of San Luis, Alberto Rodríguez Saá.
Confronted with his brother Adolfo, who became a Christian.
All the renouncers converged in a group that will be called Federal Unity, under the helm of Alejandra Vigo from Cordoba.
She is the wife of the Peronist governor Juan Schiaretti.
A senator from Santa Fe, Marcelo Lewandowsky, who has an unstable relationship with Governor Omar Perotti, was close to joining.
The crack has, therefore, other depths.
Nor is it a sudden opposition conglomerate.
Simply from senators who distance themselves for their own political needs in a political time that reflects the end of the cycle.
With this new X-ray of the Senate, the ruling party will have 31 members.
For the quorum, 37 are required. The usual help provided by the allies of Misiones, Rio Negro and La Rioja will be insufficient.
Another unexpected difficulty arises for the vice president at the level of the political story.
After her conviction for the Roads case (public work for the benefit of businessman K Lázaro Báez) Cristina formatted an argument around her "proscription" that would prevent her from competing.
The supposed resignation of her was an endorphin that La Cámpora made her own.
Well, from the heart of the official system, that proscriptive thesis has begun to be stoned.
The first rubble was thrown by Aníbal Fernández.
The Minister of the Interior explained that Cristina has no impediment to stand for election.
Kirchnerism presumes that such audacity would have had the presidential consent.
The discord that unleashed the interference put in check the "operative outcry" that the camporismo had been concocting. With the blessing of the vice president, he imagined a great demonstration for March 24. Another anniversary of the 1976 coup. An irruption of
Estela Carlotto was enough so that everything would collapse in a minute.
The Grandmother of the Plaza de Mayo, judiciously, explained that it did not seem right to mix the tragedy of the disappeared with matters of politics. The alleged "proscription", to be literal.
Kirchnerism had to go back wrapped in confusion
.
He could not put at risk the patrimony of that unfortunate date of which he knew how to seize.
Linked to the defense of human rights.
The only banners that remain before his faithful.
The adjustment of the economy destroys the rest.
This improvised adjustment denotes another reality: the structural and conceptual weakness of the organization (La Cámpora) that the Kirchner couple imagined as a tool for a generational transfer.
This verification better frames Alberto's behavior.
The president, political bearer of a four of cups, is dedicated to challenging Kirchnerism with his re-election project.
He not only ignored the warnings that were made to him at the indigent political table.
He did an extravagant
staging from Antarctica
to confirm that he is still in the fight.
"He will only get off if he has two assurances: that there is a better candidate than him and that STEPs are carried out with several competitors," explained one of the two officials who is attached to him.
The Kirchnerists believe they discover other evils behind Alberto.
Daniel Scioli returned to the fore with his sharp pastor's tone.
“I am the same as always, with more faith and hope than ever.
Count me in.
I am counting on you, ”he said in a letter that he posted on the networks.
Nothing that doesn't look like a pitch.
The question is whether it was an individual impulse or something coordinated to dissuade Kirchnerism from the possibility of a single formula.
The recent calendar has a record.
Scioli traveled with Alberto to Misiones on February 17 to inaugurate the expansion of a Biochemistry and Pharmacy module at the University of Misiones.
Curious activity for an ambassador in Brazil.
In that journey they had a dialogue alone that only the two of them know.
Scioli's first public subsequent gesture was the virtual launch of it.
This was even interpreted in a note in the newspaper O Globo, from São Paulo.
Together for Change does not seem to take account of the fraying of the Frente de Todos
.
Its leaders have different diagnoses, which makes us think about the course they would take if they became a government.
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta launched his campaign with the script of burying the crack.
Patricia Bullrich did the same but encouraged to promote polarization.
If one wins or the other wins in the STEP, will they then be able to retain the wealth of their adversary in the general?
This question extends to districts in which the disputes persist: Mendoza, Córdoba, Santa Fe, no less.
The bullfighting reached such a point that the former Security Minister questioned the City for not using Tasers.
Aníbal officiated at Samoré
and said that the weapons may be at the disposal of the Buenos Aires authorities.
Rodríguez Larreta manages a dilemma.
He is the figure with the best image nationwide.
But he fails to massively transform that weighting into votes.
It is the same phenomenon reported by the consultancies ARESCO and Isonomía.
Contrary to what happens with Cristina: she has a good, very limited image but translates it into votes.
Another factor that helps little in Together for Change, especially in PRO, is
Macri's ghostly behavior.
She appears and disappears.
The day of the brawl between Larreta and Bullrich, she emerged with María Eugenia Vidal.
She postponed an act of presentation of her book to travel to Rome for a FIFA occupation.
It will be another 10 days of absence.
The opposition will thus remain entangled in its own fights and the impotence to be noticed in a paralyzed institutional life.
He only has the struggle with Kirchnerism left in the Impeachment Committee of the Supreme Court in Deputies.
The ruling party had the collaboration of two judges, Alejo Ramos Padilla and Sebastián Ramos, who without the obligation of having to do so personally attended to testify.
The K bet escalated with the summons to prosecutor Carlos Stornelli, who has immunity to appear.
The game just continues.