By Courtney Kube, Carol E. Lee, Andrea Mitchell, Kristen Welker and Leila Sackur -
NBC News
Intelligence information suggests that China is considering sending artillery and ammunition to Russia, according to three US officials familiar with the matter.
They did not say what specific evidence they had to support this claim, which was also confirmed to NBC News by a former US official and a Western official briefed on the matter, and originally reported by the Wall Street Journal.
NBC News has contacted China's Foreign Ministry for comment on this report, which comes after China unveiled a 12-point peace plan on Friday, the anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
He asked both countries to agree to a gradual de-escalation, keep nuclear facilities safe, establish humanitarian corridors and avoid attacks on the civilian population.
Earlier this month, China responded strongly to US accusations that it may be providing non-lethal military assistance to Russia, telling the US government to stay out of its relationship with the Russian government.
“It could be a significant event” if China decided to provide Russia with weapons, Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Institute for Foreign Policy Research, a Philadelphia-based think tank, said on Twitter.
He added that "the availability of artillery ammunition that Ukraine and Russia have is arguably the most important variable that could influence the course of the war."
[A year of war in Ukraine: women recount hell from within]
But Keir Giles, a Russia expert and senior consulting fellow at London-based think tank Chatham House, told NBC News by phone Sunday that "previous assessments and predictions that Russia is imminently running out of a given type of ammunition has not turned out to be the case in real life.”
"The availability of artillery ammunition for Ukraine and Russia is possibly the most important variable that could influence the course of the war," warns an expert. MARKO DJURICA / REUTERS
He added that if Russia was turning to alternative suppliers "beyond the drones it has received from Iran" then it was "an indication that they are depleting their availability of post-Cold War weapons and munitions at a rate they consider unsustainable."
From the Chinese perspective, it is important that Russia not be defeated, according to Michael A. Horowitz, a geopolitical and security analyst and head of intelligence at consultancy Le Beck.
China, he said, "had already been providing Russia with significant support, whether in the form of increased oil imports, dual-use components, microchips imported from Western countries, and satellite imagery."
He added that if China only provides small arms ammunition to Russia, that may not register in Europe, which along with the United States is one of its main trading partners.
“But if they provide anything more than that, including artillery shells that are widely used in Ukraine or drones,
Europe will feel pressured to respond
,” she said.
Despite the trail of destruction, death and displacement, in Ukraine they trust that they can win the war against Russia
Feb 24, 202302:02
“China would not necessarily be unhappy with a diminished Russia that would have to increasingly align itself with the Chinese government.
But avoiding a Russian defeat is in Beijing's interest,” she said.
The goal was “to make sure Russia doesn't lose and to force a negotiated deal,” he said, adding that this is why China launched the peace plan.
After China revealed those proposals, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Friday that he wanted to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, to discuss Beijing's proposals to end the conflict.
[At what point is the war in Ukraine and what goals does Putin have a year later?]
"China historically respects our territorial integrity and therefore should do everything possible to get Russia to leave the territory of Ukraine," he told a news conference, adding that he believed a meeting with Xi would "benefit our countries and security in the world”.
He did not say whether a meeting with the Chinese leader had been arranged or give any indication when it might take place, but insisted his main goal was to make sure China had not supplied Russia with weapons.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin holds talks with China's President Xi Jinping via video link from Moscow, Russia, December 30, 2022.SPUTNIK/via REUTERS
President Joe Biden and European leaders were skeptical of China's peace proposals.
Describing the idea as "just not rational," Biden told ABC News on Friday that he "hadn't seen anything in the plan that indicated there's anything that would be beneficial to anyone other than Russia."
[The horrifying balance in figures of a year of war in Ukraine]
Speaking at a press conference in Estonia on Friday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also said that China "did not have much credibility because they have not been able to condemn the illegal invasion of Ukraine."
At the same press conference, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said European leaders would discuss Chinese principles for peace "in the context that China has already taken a side."
