A good part of the
internship between Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich
is settled in the world of statistics.
Or what the world of statistics is supposed to say.
And a
new survey
commissioned with that underlying context ended with a (half) surprise: they ordered electoral floors and ceilings to be measured and
the leader with the most "secure vote" was Cristina Kirchner.
The study is from the consulting firm
Solmoirago
, which has been measuring radicalism leaders for years and has also joined the group of firms that
conduct surveys for the City Government
.
Clarín
agreed to the study through a Buenos Aires source from the PRO.
This is a survey of
2,200 cases throughout the country
, between February 10 and 16, with +/- 2.09% margin of error.
Before entering the electoral terrain, the report shows the image measurements.
And highlight these main data:
The head of Government Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, during an interview with Clarín.
In a poll he leads in image and electoral ceiling.
In a safe vote he is more relegated.
PHOTO Fernando de la Orden.
- "
Rodríguez Larreta is the national leader with the best positive image
(52.1% and a differential of +11.6). In second place is Patricia Bullrich (51.7%, with a differential of +9.4%)" .
- "The
leaders with the greatest negative image are Máximo Kirchner
(70.3% with a differential of -49.6%), Alberto Fernández (68.5% with a differential of -39.2%) and Cristina Kirchner (65.1% with a differential of -33%)".
- "Within the opposition,
Macri presents the greatest negative image
(53.4% with a differential of -10%), followed by Milei (47.8% with a differential of -10.9%), Bullrich (42, 2%) and the radicals Morales (41% with a differential of -12.8%) and Facundo Manes (38% with a differential of -1.8%)".
Floors, ceilings and voting for space
The chapter
"Voting intention"
begins with the measurement of what is known as
"electoral floors and ceilings"
.
What is the safe vote of each candidate and how far can it go.
In the first area is where Cristina today seems unbeatable.
And where Larreta's main rival, Patricia Bullrich, also becomes strong.
The head of government, on the other hand, ends up as the one with the greatest potential.
Regarding the safe vote, the vice president leads with 22.7%. She is followed, very closely, by Axel Kicillof with 22.5%.
This data is what explains why many Kirchnerists want the governor to fight for the presidency in case the head of the space gets off.
The last national survey of Solmoirago.
He measured electoral floors and ceilings.
The last national survey of Solmoirago.
He measured electoral floors and ceilings.
Then Bullrich appears, with 20.4%
.
These numbers position the three leaders with good chances for an eventual internship, since they have very consolidated support.
Mauricio Macri also
stands out in this category, with 19.2%
.
But when the measurement is extended to the ceiling (sure vote + probable vote) Larreta leads there, with 45.8% (11.9% + 34%).
They are followed by the holder of the PRO, with 40.1%;
Macri with 39.8% and Cristina with 38.4%.
Fifth, strikingly, is Mario Negri, head of the radical bloc of Deputies, with 35.1%.
The last national survey of Solmoirago.
He measured voting intention by space.
Solmoirago
then adds two more electoral measurements.
First, it shows
the fight for space
and, as in the rest of the voting intention surveys, this podium is given:
First Together for Change (29.9%), the Frente de Todos (26.6%) and the libertarians ( 14.2%)
.
He closes the Left Front (2.5%) and "doesn't know" (26.9%).
The last national survey of Solmoirago.
He measured the internship of Together for Change.
Lastly, he joins the
Juntos por el Cambio internship
and, surprisingly, although it has a lower floor,
Larreta is listed above
Bullrich, Macri and Facundo Manes: 29% (of those who stated they voted for that space) against 21, 3%, 12.5% and 5.5% respectively (they complete "other" with 13.4% and "don't know" with 18.3%).
