In 30 years, half the snow and more heat: this is how climate change will affect skiing in the Pyrenees

Part of the magic of the Pyrenees lies in that beautiful white mantle that covers its mountains for several months of the year.

That iconic postcard led to the establishment of some 50 ski resorts there —most of them arrived decades ago—, which take advantage of that snow to make their slopes available to skiers throughout the winter and part of the spring.

However, in a context of climate change, the outlook is worrisome for the coming decades.

According to the projections of the Pyrenean Climate Change Observatory (OPCC) —a scientific cooperation entity between Spain, France and Andorra belonging to the public consortium of the Pyrenees Work Community (CTP)—, in 2050 there will be a thickness of snow a 50 % lower than the current one at elevations of 1,800 to 2,200 meters, a strip that is occupied by most of the stations.

And this taking into account an intermediate greenhouse gas scenario (RCP 4.5) in which emissions would peak around 2040 and then gradually decrease (according to the IPCC classification, the UN group of experts on climate change ).

If the scenario were the most pessimistic (without reduction of emissions),

Two skiers at the French resort of Font-Romeu/Bolquere Pyrenees, last January.

CHARLY TRIBALLEAU (AFP)

Although the effect of global warming on the reduction of average annual rainfall is uncertain, it is scientifically incontestable that if emissions continue, temperatures will increase, and in the Pyrenees they will do so more sharply (an aspect shared by scientists from the IPCC, OPCC , Pyrenean Institute of Ecology and Foundation for Climate Research).

According to the OPCC, this will result in part of the precipitation going from falling as snow to falling as rain, while the first snowfalls will arrive later and the thaw will occur earlier.

An example is the predicted reduction in snow cover (the volume of snow available at a location).

"In our projections, we compare the thickness of the snow cover with the average for the period 1981-2010," explains Juan Terrádez, climate researcher at the OPCC.

"This means that if in a season the average snow cover in the three decades since 1981 has been 50 centimeters, with this scenario it would become 25 centimeters."

Carlos Ara, a ski expert, points out that the winter sports season in this massif starts at the beginning of December and ends at the end of March or beginning of April: "The December long weekend usually has the problem that sometimes it hasn't snowed still, but it is something that has been happening for many years.

Some resorts try to make up for it with artificial snow cannons, but cold and humidity are needed for them to work.

If they have these conditions, snow is created to make a base that covers the mountain so that when there is a snowfall it does not fall on dry ground, but on a snow base, and that helps it stay better and does not melt quickly. ”.

However, artificial snow alone cannot maintain a station: "It would be very complicated," Ara says.

It is necessary to combine it with copious snowfalls whose volume is then distributed over the slopes.

But climate projections call for a large reduction even in the peak season months.

Dominic Royé, climatologist at the Foundation for Climate Research (FIC), points out that the Pyrenees are one of the "most sensitive" areas to climate change: "The increase in temperatures is greater in mountainous areas, they are more vulnerable places, Just like the poles.

That will translate into a loss of ice and snow cover.”

The OPCC data shows the forecast for a rise in temperatures, which is very worrying, especially in terms of the minimum temperatures: above zero degrees, snow and ice melt and it is very difficult to maintain them.

According to this organization, at an altitude of 2,100 meters, the projection is that in 2050 there will be 1.41°C more in a moderate emissions scenario (RCP 4.5);

if we talk about the pessimistic scenario, the rise would reach almost 2°C.

Jesús Revuelto, a researcher at the Pyrenean Institute of Ecology (IPE-CSIC), points out that forecasts of precipitation trends in climate scenarios have great uncertainty, but not those of temperatures: "It is very difficult to say if it is going to rain more or less , but there will be a categorical thermal increase.

For this reason, it can be expected that the melting of the snow cover will take place earlier, and it will no longer occur in April or May, but in a few years it may be earlier, in February or March”.

In his opinion, “it is likely that in 20 or 30 years there will be more frequent winters with little snow accumulation, and some years with cold episodes and more snowfall.

Although the snow will remain at the highest levels and will not disappear from the mountains in the Iberian Peninsula, it will be reduced”.

Marc Lemús, a researcher at Andorra Recerca + Innovació and the University of Santiago de Compostela, has published a study (for the congress of the Spanish Association of Climatology) in which he shows, through satellite images, that the snow cover of the massif will decrease: “In a critical scenario, with the same emissions, this reduction will be more noticeable.

And it will be more pronounced on the southern slope, highly influenced by climate variability.

In fact, there are already stations like Port del Compte or Vall de Nuria [both in Catalonia] that live off one or two episodes of heavy rainfall a year”.

In addition, “when the temperature rises, the snow cover will begin at higher levels.

The ones that will be able to better withstand these changes are the stations in the north of Andorra, and those on the north face of the Pyrenees”.

This trend is affecting the higher Alps as well — the recent decline in snow cover in the Alps is unprecedented in the last six centuries, says a January paper in Nature — and has led a group of

from competition to sign a letter to demand that measures be taken in the face of the climate emergency after verifying that this season there has been a lack of snow and some tournaments have had to be suspended.

“Hotter means less conditions for snowfall.

So in 30 years the number of days available for skiing in the Pyrenees will be greatly reduced”, summarizes the climatologist Dominic Royé.

However, several Pyrenean ski resorts continue to expand the slopes, or have plans to do so in the future.

Cerler, in Aragon, has just grown 23 kilometers in the Castanesa valley, while Astún and Formigal, also from Aragon, are planning an eight-kilometre cable car to connect (paid for in large part with European public money).

Baqueira (Catalonia) opened a new slope in D'ossau with the modernization of a ski lift, and Bohí Taull (also Catalan) has added two more.

In Andorra, Grand Valira has added the track in Pont-Grau, and the Pal Arinsal station is planning a future expansion.

In France, Peyragudes has a new chairlift that raises the slopes to 2,368 meters;

Saint-Lary now has two new ski lifts, but they have replaced five old ones, with which 38 pylons (poles) have been removed, in an action that they frame in the climate adaptation of the station.

With these forecasts, what is the outlook for skiing in the area in three decades?

“For us the key is to invest in a good network of produced snow.

Our resorts have an average of 66% of the domain covered with cultivated snow”, replies a spokeswoman for the Andorran resorts.

The new guns do not need a temperature below zero to do so, but can work even with 1 or 2 degrees positive.

However, the cold is essential for the snow to be maintained;

if the minimum temperatures increase, this will not be enough.

The French resort of La Pierre Saint-Martin had to close its slopes due to lack of snow at the beginning of January.

GAIZKA IROZ (AFP)

A spokesman for the Pyrenees Agency, a public entity that brings together 39 French resorts (skiing and other sports), points out that the

"are preparing for the four seasons": "if in the future it does not snow in November , the lifts could be adapted for descents by mountain bike, in addition to being adapted for other activities such as trekking routes, hiking, descent in

[all-terrain]... The Luchon Superbagnères station reactivated the bicycles in October and November, and Artouste has the train on the route of the lakes”.

However, ski expert Carlos Ara is skeptical of these uses: "All the resorts talk about diversifying their activities, but their fundamental business is the sale of ski passes [passes] for skiing on the slopes."

According to the Pyrenees Agency, "as long as it is cold in the mountains, there are two or three good snowfalls a year and snow can be made at temperatures below 1ºC or 2ºC, we will continue skiing".

None of the Spanish stations consulted have responded to this newspaper's questionnaire.

You can follow CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT on

has participated in the preparation of this report

.

Subscribe to continue reading

Read without limits

Keep reading

I'm already a subscriber