Crimea could become a sticking point in the Ukraine war: Volodymyr Zelenskyj leaves no doubt about Ukraine's goal - but the USA are evading and an expert warns.
Kiev/Munich - Can the year 2023 bring an end to the Ukraine war - or rather a further escalation?
Europe looks to the coming developments with concern.
Crimea could play a key role here: the area annexed by Russia in 2014 is increasingly coming into focus.
Not only because Ukraine celebrated the unofficial anniversary of the Russian invasion on Sunday (February 26).
President Volodymyr Zelenskyj named Crimea as a possible key to peace - and received backing from the USA and the NATO state Czech Republic.
However, in an interview with
Merkur.de
on Friday (February 24), an expert warned of a “residual risk” of nuclear power if Kiev wanted to retake the area militarily.
Ukraine war: Zelenskyj wants to "restore peace" with the capture of Crimea
“Russian aggression against Crimea began nine years ago.
With the return of Crimea, we will restore peace," Zelenskyi said
on Telegram, according to a
Ukrainska Pravda report.
"We will return the Ukrainian flag to every corner of Ukraine," he said.
There is no question that Ukraine also has this intention with regard to Crimea.
Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy Melnyk only confirmed this on Friday in an interview with the German broadcaster n-tv.
Most recently, radio stations in Crimea had apparently even been hacked, as reported by
fr.de
, among others .
A Ukrainian official announced: "We are coming to them."
Crimea taken by Ukraine: Contradictory signals from the USA – adviser dodges on TV
Kiev can count on verbal support.
"Crimea is part of Ukraine," US State Department spokesman Ned Price said on Sunday.
"Nine years ago, Russia invaded Ukraine and occupied Crimea - a clear violation of international law and Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity." Action - demanded the withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukraine.
The annexation of Crimea and other areas by Russia is illegal.
However, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan left open a US response in an emergency.
Ukraine is defining the conditions for victory, he reportedly said on NBC's Meet the Press.
He avoided an inquiry about Crimea.
The "critical question" is currently conquests "in the south and east", for which Ukraine must be given the "necessary tools".
The "Crimea question" will only arise for some time.
Crimea as a sticking point for a nuclear strike "residual risk"?
Political scientist warns
However, it is unclear how Russia would react to the implementation of this request.
The conflict researcher Nicole Deitelhoff recently explained in the ZDF talk “Maybrit Illner” that the situation in Crimea is difficult – partly because of a pro-Russian population.
At the same time, Zelenskyy would “politically simply not survive” if the area were ceded.
She pointed out that Russia had been threatening for months without any recognizable consequences - but also admitted that one could only "speculate" from the West about the state of the Russian military.
The political scientist Gerhard Mangott at Merkur.de
saw
Putin in the same situation as Zelenskyy when it came to Crimea.
"Taking back Crimea would mean Putin's downfall and he is determined to prevent that," he said.
"Should Crimea be endangered, I would not rule out that Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons."
Mangott emphasized that Vladimir Putin had recently used a formulation from the Russian nuclear doctrine in his state of the nation speech: "Russia's state existence" could be endangered.
Russia has already officially added the annexed areas to its territory - although experts unanimously classified this as a violation of international law.
Crimea and the Ukraine war: Czech Republic sees support for reconquest train
So how would the West react if Ukraine actually attempted to invade Crimea?
Apparently, the new Czech President Petr Pavel does not anticipate any opposition to such a request.
"I don't think Western countries are discussing an option to reduce support because Ukraine wants to liberate Crimea," he told Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne, according to a translation of Ukrainska
Pravda
.
"On the contrary," added the head of state of the NATO country.
"All leaders use the same arguments, which means they support Ukraine in liberating its entire territory." At the Munich Security Conference, however, former NATO General Pavel also warned against setting overly strict goals for an end to the war.
Russia's defeat could "occur under different scenarios," some of which the West should avoid, he was quoted as saying by Czech radio.
In spring 2014, Russia took control of the Crimean Peninsula, which belongs to Ukraine.
The first armed clashes between supporters of the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian demonstrators finally led to military intervention by Russia.
A controlled referendum on incorporation into the Russian Federation finally led to Moscow's annexation of Crimea in March.
In 2020, Zelenskyi declared February 26 the day of resistance against the Russian occupation of Crimea.
In 2014, before the Russian annexation, the last major pro-Ukrainian demonstration took place in front of the regional parliament on this day, and several people lost their lives.
(
fn with material from dpa
)