A
new survey in the City of Buenos Aires
adds tension to the very tough
internship of Together for Change
for the election of head of Government.
With a central fact:
Fernán Quirós
, one of the many candidates of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta for his succession, rebounded, and the opposition PASO is on fire.
The study that Clarín
analyzes
this Monday is by
Federico González
, a well-known pollster in the world of politics and with ties mainly to Peronism.
In previous elections, for example, he measured for Sergio Massa.
On this occasion, he presented a Buenos Aires survey with
800 interviews
that he did between February 21 and 22, with +/- 3.54% margin of error.
He evaluated
five hypotheses
: intention to vote by space, plus a STEP scenario and three general elections, varying the offer of Together for Change.
The obvious conclusion, looking at the draws, is that JvC is heavily favored to keep the management of the City in their orbit. The doubt that begins to grow is with whom he will do it.
But before entering the electoral field, the poll asks
two questions
about controversies that involve the City.
First
: "Recently, a criminal murdered a policewoman in the Retiro Station, which revived the problem of Tasers, a weapon that allows you to reduce an attacker with electric shocks, but without killing or harming them. In your opinion,
should police forces be allowed to use Tasers?
".
77.3% think so.
Second
: "In 2016 Mauricio Macri granted the City resources for co-participation. In 2020, Alberto Fernández took them away to give them to the Province of Buenos Aires. Then, the Head of Government of Buenos Aires Horacio Rodríguez Larreta denounced the fact before the Supreme Court. Later, the Supreme Court ruled that the Nation return the funds to the City. But, finally, The Nation refused to do so. Regarding this matter, who do you think could be right: The City,
The Nation; or that each one has its own share of reason?
".
47% favor the City, against 23% of the Nation (20.3% say "both" and 9.7% "don't know").
Intention to vote by space and STEP
Regarding the electoral bid, the initial parameter is
per space
.
And there the division is already clear: on the one hand,
Juntos por el Cambio scores comfortably, with 42.4%
;
and then the Frente de Todos (20.5%)
and the
libertarians (19.1%)
fight vote by vote
.
In a third step, also even, come the left (4.2%) and non-K Peronism (3.1%).
They close "blank" with 3.1% and "don't know" with 7.6%.
The second box shows the
internal bid STEP
.
And there, with six applicants,
Together for Change climbs to 51.1%
in the sum.
With two differentiated groups:
- The one above, led by Jorge Macri (PRO), with 17%; versus 14.6% for Martín Lousteau (UCR) and 13.1% for Quirós (PRO). In the January measurement, the numbers were 19.2%, 15.9% and 9.5% respectively.
- The one below, with Roberto García Moritán (United Republicans) with 3.7%;
Soledad Acuña (PRO) with 2.3%;
and Emmanuel Ferrario (PRO) with 0.4%.
Far away, with
18.8% in total
, come the three leaders of the
Frente de Todos
: the deputy
Leandro Santoro (14.4%)
, the minister
Matías Lammens (3.1%)
and the former minister
Elizabeth Gómez Alcorta (1, 3%)
.
Third, alone, is the legislator
Ramiro Marra
, representative of the
libertarians of Javier Milei
in the City.
He gets
14.3%
.
And last ends
Myriam Bregman
, for the
Left Front
, with
2.3%
.
Plus 3.8% "blank" and 9.8% "don't know".
Intention to vote for the general
Then,
Federico González
adds an interesting exercise.
He measures three general election scenarios, varying the Juntos por el Cambio offer, with the trio that would do best in the STEP.
Conclusion?
Any of the three would win
, with fairly similar percentages.
Important: to avoid balloting, in the City you must exceed 50%.
A threshold that in the survey does not achieve any.
On
stage 1
Jorge Macri
appears
, reaching
47.7%
, against 16.9% for Santoro and 16.6% for Marra.
In
stage 2
it is up to
Lousteau
, who adds
46.2%
, against 17.2% for Santoro and 16.3% for Marra.
In
stage 3
, meanwhile, they test
Quirós
, who gets
45%
, against 17% for Santoro and 15.9% for Marra.
look also
Elections 2023: in Together for Change they commissioned a survey and the most voted was Cristina Kirchner
Javier Milei according to Durán Barba, the great Carlos Menem and opposition summits for March 1