Prospects for the 2023 Two Sessions｜Li Keqiang's last government work report

At the upcoming two sessions of China, the current Premier Li Keqiang will hand over the post to Prime Minister-designate Li Qiang, and will make the last government work report during his tenure, marking the official end of his ten-year term.

Prospects for the 2023 Two Sessions｜The personnel market has been determined. How to change the "Party and State Institutional Reform Plan"?

How Li Keqiang's last government work report will unfold is undoubtedly an important window for the outside world to observe China's economy.

On February 3 and February 6, Li Keqiang presided over the eighth plenary meeting of the State Council and a symposium for people from all walks of life and grassroots representatives to solicit opinions and suggestions from all parties on the government work report.

According to the usual practice, the annual government work report will summarize the past year, make a general deployment of the work for the next year, and set specific economic and social development goals.

And it coincides with the year when the government changes, it still needs to be placed in a five-year or ten-year time period to make an overall assessment.

At the meeting for soliciting opinions, Li Keqiang made a general summary and general explanation of the past year, past five years, and past ten years. This is roughly the general tone of this government work report.

On May 18, 2022, Li Keqiang hosted a symposium on stabilizing growth, stabilizing market players and ensuring employment in Yunnan.

(Screenshot of news broadcast)

Regarding the past year, Li Keqiang said that "in the face of an extremely complex and severe international and domestic environment", "our country has made new and difficult achievements in development", "through hard work, the economic market has been stabilized, and more than 1,200 new urban jobs have been created throughout the year. The surveyed urban unemployment rate dropped to 5.5% by the end of the year, the consumer price increase was only 2%, the import and export of goods increased by 7.7%, the international balance of payments was basically balanced, and the economic operation remained within a reasonable range.”

For the past five years, Li Keqiang said, "Extremely unusual and extraordinary", "Economic strength has reached a new level, the GDP has grown by an average of 5.2% per year, more than 12.7 million new urban jobs have been created each year, new industries and new The new business model is developing rapidly, and people's living standards are constantly improving. We implement the new development concept, effectively respond to risks and challenges, strengthen range-based regulation, targeted regulation, and targeted regulation, and continue to do a good job in "six stability" and "six guarantees". Innovate macro policies The implementation method is to grasp the scale of fiscal deficit according to the time and situation, implement large-scale tax cuts, tax refunds and fee reductions based on the needs of enterprises, merchants, etc., rationally use monetary aggregates and structural tools, and increase financial support for the real economy to stabilize the market. The main body is to stabilize employment and protect people's livelihood. In this process, the deficit scale has not continued to increase significantly, and currency has not been issued excessively, which has created macro conditions for price stability. Unswervingly promote reform and opening up, deepen the streamlining of administration, decentralization, combination of decentralization and management, and optimization of services Reforms will further stimulate market vitality and social creativity.”

It is worth mentioning that at the symposium with people from all walks of life and grassroots representatives, when Li Keqiang summarized the past five years, he also mentioned the impact of the epidemic in the past three years, saying frankly that "three of them were affected by the epidemic." The government work report was launched in detail.

From August 16 to 17, 2022, Li Keqiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, visited Shenzhen.

This is the afternoon of the 16th. Li Keqiang communicated cordially with the staff during his inspection in Yantian Port.

(Xinhua News Agency)

For the past ten years, Li Keqiang said, "Looking at the ten-year long-term cycle, the economy has achieved an average annual growth rate of 6.2%, achieving medium-to-high growth, the annual increase in consumer prices has not exceeded 3%, and the number of enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households has increased from more than 50 million. To more than 160 million households." In addition, Li Keqiang also reiterated the "two unwavering" and the urgency of stimulating market vitality and social creativity.

In addition, at the two meetings, Li Keqiang not only laid out achievements, but also talked about hidden worries.

At the plenary meeting of the State Council, he said, "At present, the external environment is more uncertain, the tasks of stabilizing domestic growth and employment are arduous, some structural contradictions have emerged, and development still faces many difficulties and challenges." At the forum of people from all walks of life and grassroots representatives On the topic, he said, “We are soberly aware that the current enterprises, especially the consumer service industry, small, medium and micro enterprises, and individual industrial and commercial households are facing more difficulties, and insufficient aggregate demand is still the main contradiction. .”

On February 23, Li Keqiang inspected the Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance. He basically continued the above tone. At the same time, he affirmed the work of the Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, and repeatedly emphasized the importance of "reform".

"The National Development and Reform Commission is responsible for development and reform. Development is the top priority, and reform is the fundamental driving force. We must continue to be the doers of development and the attackers of reform." Regarding the upcoming government work report, Li Keqiang said frankly, "Summary work based on facts , scientifically arrange key tasks, and accept supervision by the people in accordance with the law.”

In terms of "seeking truth from facts and summarizing work", in the past 2022, China's economy grew by only 3% for the whole year, far below the official target of 5.5%. Overshadowed by the narrative; in terms of "scientifically arranging key tasks", with the intensive convening of the local two sessions, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) in China have successively announced their economic growth targets for 2023. From the perspective of GDP targets for 2023, the values ​​​​of the 31 provinces The range is between 4% and 9.5%, among which the highest is in Hainan Province (about 9.5%), the lowest is in Tianjin (about 4%), and most of the other provinces are concentrated in the range of 5% to 6.5%, with 6% being the majority.

After three years of the impact of the epidemic, after the release of the epidemic prevention policy, the provinces have continued to work hard on the economy. However, how to scientifically arrange economic growth targets and how to provide a source of fresh water to stabilize confidence and expectations is still a difficult problem.

After the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control, China's economy has recovered significantly.

The picture shows the promotional poster of "Man Jianghong", the box office champion of the 2023 Mainland Spring Festival movie.

(Visual China)

On the one hand, the government intends to boost the economy by restoring and expanding consumption, on the other hand, it is the reluctance and fear of consumption caused by the low expectations at the public level.

The People's Bank of China released the latest financial data for January 2023. Renminbi deposits increased by 6.87 trillion yuan in that month, of which household deposits increased by 6.2 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period in history, and an increase of 790 billion yuan year-on-year.

The People's Bank of China's "Questionnaire Survey Report on Urban Depositors in the Fourth Quarter of 2022" shows that residents' enthusiasm for savings is high. In the fourth quarter of 2022, residents who tend to "save more" accounted for 61.8%, which is the highest since statistics were available.

At the two sessions in 2022, when asked how to evaluate the current government at the last press conference, Li Keqiang said frankly, "The government's work has the approval of the people, and there are gaps and deficiencies that are not what they expected. We are aware of these. "Since the current government, the international situation has been complicated and changeable, and domestic conflicts and difficulties have piled up. Speaking of the biggest challenge, it is the new crown epidemic and its severe impact on the economy. She took refuge, did not avoid danger, and tried her best."

For Li Keqiang, who is about to leave office, the last government work report during his tenure is obviously also a report of "recognition", "gap" and "deficiency", and "doing our best".

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