On February 24th, the anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine War, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs released the document "China's Position on the Political Solution to the Ukraine Crisis", and various circles responded to it differently.
The first is Ukraine, one of the belligerents, whose internal reaction has been mixed.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that Ukraine at least does not agree with the document’s opposition to unilateral sanctions; Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak also said that any peace plan must include the return of Russian troops. Withdrew to the 1991 border, but the Chinese document did not mention it; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pointed out that it is a good thing that China started talking about Ukraine, but how to act is the key point, and he also hopes to cooperate with the Chinese state Meeting with President Xi Jinping.
Another belligerent, Russia, has been positive.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said it welcomes China's proposed peace plan, and Russia and Ukraine can achieve their goals through politics and dialogue, but it also means that Ukraine needs to recognize the "new territorial reality" in its territory.
"We attach great importance to the sincere desire of our Chinese friends to contribute to the peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian conflict," said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.
Belarus also welcomed it. President Alexander Lukashenko said that today's world problems cannot be solved without China. If China's position on the Russia-Ukraine issue is not heard, there will be serious consequences.
Belarusian President Lukashenko (left) meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) on the outskirts of Moscow on February 17, 2023 (Reuters)
The overall position of the West is closer to that of Ukraine.
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell (Josep Borrell) said, "This is not a peace plan, but a position document. China has brought together all the positions it has expressed since the war"; German Chancellor Olaf Scholz Scholz met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on February 25, and also discussed the position paper issued by China. Scholz said that "some things are clearly correct" in it, such as warning again against the use of nuclear weapons, but the document is in He appears to be missing a clear line where Russia must withdraw its troops.
U.S. President Joe Biden criticized that if China's plan is followed, no one will benefit except Russia, and it is unreasonable for China to propose a negotiated solution to a war that is completely unfair to Ukraine; Secretary of State Blinken (Antony Blinken) also said, "China has always wanted to have its own cake and eat it: trying to publicly present itself as neutral and seeking peace on the one hand, while promoting Russia's false claims about this war on the other hand."
To sum up, China's political stance paper on Ukraine has attracted varying degrees of positive and negative comments. Compared with Russia's positive response, both the West and Ukraine have doubts.
However, judging from the international political context in which the document was born, China's aspiration is not only to call for peace, but also to resist the political offensive of the United States and preserve Sino-Russian and Sino-European relations.
Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang attended the Lanting Forum themed "Global Security Initiative: China's Solution to Security Dilemma" in Beijing on February 21.
He said that China urges the countries concerned to immediately stop fueling the flames, stop blaming China, and stop clamoring for "Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow."
(Reuters)
Is the position paper a 'peace package'?
Some analysts believe that the "China's Position on the Political Solution to the Ukraine Crisis" document is a "peace plan" proposed by China, which means that China will officially sit on the negotiating table and enter the mediation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
This statement may be in line with China's purpose of calling for peace, but it may not be in line with reality.
First of all, in the author's opinion, the 12-point statement made by China conveys the common position of the majority of "neutral countries" in the world, rather than a detailed plan for ending the war and arranging the post-war order. It is quite far from the so-called "peace plan". distant.
Take the "Ukraine-Russia Peace" plan proposed by American billionaire Elon Musk in October 2022 as an example. Its contents include the following four points in total: First, a referendum will be held in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian region, and the U.N. monitoring; second, to recognize Russia's sovereignty over the Crimean peninsula; third, to ensure water supply to Crimea; and fourth, to grant Ukraine neutral status.
Regardless of the purpose of Musk's move, the above-mentioned plan at least proposes solutions to key issues such as Russia's occupation of land, whether Ukraine will join NATO, and the ownership of Crimea.
The United Nations Security Council held a public meeting on Ukraine on February 24, 2023. After speaking, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba asked the participants to observe a minute of silence for the victims of the Russo-Ukrainian war, but was interrupted by Russia's permanent representative to the United Nations, Nebenzia, because He believes there should also be a moment of silence for those killed since 2014.
The picture shows that on February 24, 2023, Nebenja interrupted the silence with a pen.
(Reuters)
On the other hand, China’s 12-point position barely touches on Russia’s land occupation and the ownership of Crimea. Only the first point is “respect for the sovereignty of all countries.” But its content is basically a repetition of the basic principles of the UN Charter and international law, emphasizing the sovereignty of all countries, Independence and territorial integrity should be effectively guaranteed. Countries are equal regardless of size, strength, or wealth. There should be no double standards in international law. As for whether Ukraine should join NATO, it is reflected in the second point of "abandoning the Cold War mentality," but the content is the same. Vague, emphasizing that the security of one country cannot be at the expense of the security of other countries, and regional security cannot be guaranteed by strengthening or even expanding military blocs.
In all fairness, this expression is the same as the position of many "neutral countries" since the start of the war: they are unwilling to challenge the UN Charter on aggression, so they generally do not recognize Russia's territorial claims in Ukraine, but they do not condemn Russia one-sidedly.
The rest, such as maintaining the safety of nuclear power plants, reducing strategic risks (meaning nuclear crises), ensuring food transportation abroad, and ensuring the stability of industrial and supply chains, etc., are also the focus of "neutral countries", that is, they hope to reduce the impact of war on their people's livelihood and economy.
In addition, of course China has always upheld the stance of persuading peace and promoting talks, but judging from the struggle situation on the battlefield, there is not much room for China to lead the peace talks.
Right now, Russia and Ukraine are on the rise. Even though Ukraine has suffered heavy losses, they are still determined to fight bloody battles. Russia has also mobilized for the first time since World War II and pushed the occupied territories to "publicly surrender to Russia", blocking the way out for negotiations on territorial issues.
Under such circumstances, if the outside world wants to strongly push for a truce, there are only two feasible directions: increasing or reducing military aid, and forcing the weaker side to compromise.
On the first anniversary of the Russo-Ukrainian War, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with the media in Kiev on February 24.
(Reuters)
Taking the Western ceasefire as an example, there are three options to consider: first, increase military aid to Ukraine, or even let NATO directly participate in the war, forcing the Russian army to stop its offensive and negotiate; second, reduce or stop military aid to Ukraine , to force Kiev to make concessions to Russia; third, face up to Russia’s relevant demands, regardless of whether Kiev is invited to participate, and start secret negotiations with Russia on key issues, including whether Ukraine’s “four regions of Russia” will hold an international-supervised self-determination referendum , How to ensure the security of people's livelihood in Crimea in the future, how far Ukraine can actually NATO, etc.
But firstly, China has no basis for military intervention in the Russia-Ukraine war, and secondly, it is unable to bypass the United States and NATO and directly reach an agreement with Russia and Ukraine on the ownership of the four regions, the security of Crimea, and how Ukraine should interact with NATO. The dominant space is naturally not high.
Of course, China can call for peace, promote dialogue, act as a platform, and issue initiatives at the United Nations, but after all, it cannot replace NATO and the United States in providing relevant guarantees and conditions to Russia, and it is difficult to give Ukraine substantial security commitments on its own.
In short, Russia-Ukraine peace talks may be possible without the presence of China, but the participation and acquiescence of Europe and the United States cannot be absent.
On February 18, 2023, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba (Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs) on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.
Preserving Sino-Russian and Sino-European relations under the American offensive
Since the key to the truce does not lie in China, the effect of the 12-point position will not easily evolve into a workable "peace plan", but will be more effective in the field of global public opinion, such as the aforementioned approval and doubts of all parties.
From a practical point of view, sparking discussions is one of the purposes of this document, and China's primary goal is to preserve the space for interaction between China-Russia and China-EU relations under the offensive of "China aiding Russia" shaped by the United States.
Things start at the Munich Security Conference in late February.
On February 18, when U.S. Secretary of State Blinken went to Germany to attend the Muan Security Conference, he suddenly issued a warning to Wang Yi, director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, asking Beijing not to provide war aid to Russia, or it would pay the price; In an interview with the National Broadcasting Corporation (NBC), the United States has learned that Beijing is considering providing weapons and other assistance to Russia, and Washington will soon announce more details.
In the next few days, officials from various U.S. ministries took turns to fight, categorically saying that China was about to assist Russia with "lethal weapons."
However, the groundless public opinion war cannot remain unchanged after all, so the United States "fine-tuned" its rhetoric after many days of operation, saying that although it has not seen signs of China aiding Russia, it is not impossible.
For example, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan pointed out on February 26 that although China has not taken action to provide Russia with lethal weapons, it has not ruled out this option. The huge "price" of aid; William Burns, director of the US Central Intelligence Agency, also pointed out on the 26th that "we have not seen China make a final decision, nor have we seen evidence of actual delivery of lethal equipment", but " We believe that the Chinese leadership is considering providing lethal equipment."
It is conceivable that if there is still no evidence of China's aid to Russia in the end, the United States will turn to promote itself as "deterring success" and "thwarting Beijing's ambitions."
Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission Wang Yi attended the Munich Security Conference in Germany on February 18 (Reuters)
In fact, looking back at the recent Sino-US interaction, the "stray balloon" incident in early February also had the same logic.
After the Chinese scientific research balloon floated into the United States on February 2, the United States began to shape the public opinion front of "China surveillance". to salvage.
US Deputy Secretary of State Sherman (Wendy Sherman) then introduced China's "Balloon Surveillance Program" to 150 diplomats from about 40 embassies. A hearing was held, and Republican Committee Chairman Mike Rogers called the balloon incident a "deliberate show of force by Beijing"; on February 8, Blinken said that "the United States is not the only target of the plan" and that China has balloons on five continents. Violating the sovereignty of countries on five continents, the United States has shared intelligence collected from balloons with dozens of countries; on February 9, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution "condemning China for sending reconnaissance balloons" with 419 votes in favor and 0 votes against ” and “brazenly violated the sovereignty of the United States.”
But the United States also faces challenges.
Because according to US media reports, this is the fifth time that Chinese balloons have flown into US airspace since 2017. There were three times during the Trump (Donald Trump) period, and one time before the Biden administration. They didn't make any big moves to react, so why did they send out fighter planes to shoot them down this time?
Trump even said that he had never heard a briefing on such incidents during his tenure. Sullivan could only make strong arguments for this, saying that after Biden took office, he ordered improved airspace surveillance, which allowed the US military to detect previous intrusions. Our ability to discover things that the Trump administration cannot."
But even so, the "stray balloon" failed to trigger a global anti-China wave in the end. Basically, only Japan reluctantly echoed the United States, saying that Chinese balloons had also floated into Japan's airspace. Sanctions against Chinese companies.
From this point of view, the United States may have missed a single blow and dispatched again, changing the battlefield from balloon monitoring to the Russian-Ukrainian war. There are scruples in interacting with China, and even being forced to participate in the chip war against China. At the same time, it hinders Sino-Russian relations, forcing China to "clear the line" with Russia in order to "prove its innocence", whether it is canceling the trip to Russia, or Reduce Sino-Russian energy cooperation.
Putin received Wang Yi at the Kremlin, and the two sides sat face to face in the closest position to each other, just a few steps away from each other.
(Reuters)
However, even if the intention of the United States is quite obvious, the 12-point position is not purely a propaganda plan that China came up with to counter the criticism of the United States.
Judging from the fact that before Wang Yi’s visit to Russia on February 20, he went to France, Italy, Germany, and met with the Ukrainian foreign minister, it can be seen that buffering the possible political damage caused by the visit to Russia has always been China’s consideration, and the 12-point position should have been long ago The purpose of planning and preparing a political document to be issued on the anniversary of the war is also to hope that the outside world will understand that China has no intention of supporting the war.
But the difference in follow-up development is that the United States suddenly launched a public opinion offensive of "China's aid to Russia", which to a certain extent created a need for Beijing to improve its self-defense. The atmosphere of "heavy document" has attracted the attention of all walks of life.
Judging from the results, the content of the document is of course consistent with China's past position, but the high-profile release of the document has the effect of causing discussions among all walks of life on "whether China is about to intervene in mediation", "whether there is room for China to mediate", "China's framework What is the operability of ", etc., to a certain extent disrupted the direction of public opinion on "China's aid to Russia".
Of course, Ukraine and the West are dissatisfied with China's reluctance to "get tough with Russia." But basically, except for the US's negative response, most of Ukraine and European countries are partially positive about the 12-point position.
From this point of view, if the 12-point position can intensify the war planning differences between the United States to promote talks and the continuation of aid, and even between the United States and Europe, it may be able to play a role in the ceasefire, but it seems that the probability is not high at present.
Looking into the future, China's spring diplomacy will continue to be highlighted.
After Wang Yi, Xi Jinping will visit Russia soon, and French President Emmanuel Macron will visit China in early April. China-Russia and China-EU relations have their own highlights, but as the Russia-Ukraine war continues, the United States will certainly not let it go Opportunity.
On the premise of the stable development of Sino-Russian relations, how to maintain the interaction between China and Europe and resist the offensive of American public opinion will be an important issue for Beijing in the future.
Why does the United States hype China's military aid to Russia?
To affect Sino-EU and Sino-Russian relations.
What is the main purpose of China's 12-point position?
It is hoped that the outside world will understand that China has no intention of supporting the war, and at the same time resist the offensive of American public opinion and preserve Sino-Russian and Sino-European relations.
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