The news of the deadly attack in Hawara caught the participants of the conference in Aqaba in the middle of the discussion on the steps required to "calm the area".
None of the participants were surprised.
"When, where and what will be the results" - these were the questions that have been floating around since the IDF's operation in Nablus, which marked another step up in security tensions with the Palestinians.
Even before it convened, it could be assumed that Israel would be the main address for pressure from the participants of the conference in Aqaba.
The shooting scene near Hawara, documentation of MDA operations
One could expect that the Palestinians would accuse that the actions of the IDF and the Shin Bet in the cities and in the refugee camps in the Yosh territories increase the motivation for attacks against Israel, expand the circle of terror and crush the "Palestinian Authority" and its mechanisms.
It could be estimated that the Jordanians will accuse that the increase in the number of Jewish visitors to the Mount of Israel and the "provocations" by Israeli officials are stirring up the spirits and have a negative effect on the street in Jordan as well, and that the Egyptians will claim, in addition to this, that the Israeli conduct at the Mount, on the issue of the Mount of Israel, and on the matter of the prisoners - the security forces, playing into the hands of Hamas and the terrorist elements in the Gaza Strip, who are also having difficulty restraining themselves.
The increase in the number of Jewish visitors to Har-Habit has a negative effect on Jordanian Street, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
In this situation, however, it is expected that the American representatives will pursue a conclusion that defines the situation as explosive and dangerous, requiring all parties to exercise restraint and requiring urgent steps to strengthen the "Palestinian Authority" and renew security coordination between it and Israel.
The main concern is that in the name of the desire to pass Ramadan in peace and stop what appears to be the process of disintegration of the Palestinian Authority, pressure will be placed on Israel to moderate its security activities within the territory or to agree to conditions in this regard.
The Israeli position on this matter will affect not only the security preparations in the near future, but also the attitude that will develop in relation to the status of the Palestinian Authority and in relation to the security arrangements that will be formulated in any future settlement between Israel and the Palestinians, hence the necessary caution in this regard.
It can be estimated that Jordanian officials will blame Israel for heating up the situation.
Riots in Bethlehem, photo: AP
Israel's experience in dealing with Palestinian terrorism does not allow it to agree to any conditions or restrictions on its freedom of security action, in all areas of the Palestinian Territories. This is the main condition that allows it to deal effectively with the waves of terrorism crashing towards it.
This freedom of action is what allowed the IDF and the Shin Bet to make about 250 arrests every month, throughout the past year, to prevent terrorist attacks and thwart the many efforts to establish terrorist organizations.
It doesn't take much imagination to understand how things would look like without this activity.
Do not allow terrorism to raise its head
And not only the quantity, but also the quality: the activity of Israel's security forces is focused on the commanders, the terror coordinators, the infrastructure personnel and not only on the operatives in the field.
The investigations that the Shin Bet carries out provide intelligence that allows for in-depth exposure of the organizations and, as a result, a thorough treatment of the entire "value chain" of terrorism: recruits and helpers, money, weapons and means, means of information and propaganda. This activity also leads to prosecution and lengthy prison terms. Elements that do not exist in any other way .
This freedom of action is what allows the IDF and the Shin Bet to make about 250 arrests every month, photo: IDF spokesperson
The continuous and systematic activity of the IDF and the Shin Bet does not allow the elements of terrorism in the Yash to raise their heads and restore their abilities. It puts them under constant tension, which interferes with their conduct and causes them to make mistakes, which are well exploited by Israeli intelligence.
Another effect that is achieved only in such an activity is: deterrence.
The ability to go anywhere at any time and arrest or kill terrorists conveys that nowhere will the perpetrators of terrorism have immunity or shelter from the hand of Israel.
Israel must adhere to the position that its security forces will continue to act wherever a terrorist threat arises, with the intention of thwarting it at its inception.
If the Palestinians go ahead and do it themselves, then there will be no Israeli action anyway.
It would have been more correct to establish such a committee, to monitor the steps to reduce Palestinian incitement and cancel incentives given by the Palestinian Authority for acts of terrorism.
Authority chairman Abu Mazen, photo: AP
As for the idea of establishing a joint committee for the issue of security together with the USA, Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority,
there is reason to fear that such a committee will mainly serve as an arena for blame games ((Blame game) in which the Palestinians are better than us. Such a committee would be a millstone on Israel's neck And you will only burden her activity. We have experienced this in the past and there is no reason to experience this again.
It would have been more correct to establish such a committee, to monitor the steps to reduce Palestinian incitement and cancel incentives given by the Palestinian Authority for acts of terrorism.
Regarding the Temple Mount - it is correct to rest on Israel's commitment to maintain the status quo.
Expanding the discussion on this issue at this time will only increase the street pressures and contradict the desire to reduce tension.
As for the question of the future of the Palestinian Authority, the set of considerations that Israel needs to consider goes beyond the stated reason for convening the summit in Aqaba and requires an in-depth examination of the balance of profit and loss in each of the strategic alternatives.
One way or another, the reality on the ground shows that "the day after Abu Mazen" is already here.
post Scriptum.
The author served as a national security advisor and head of the national security staff between 2017-2021.
Previously, he held senior positions at the top of the Shin Bet. He currently serves as a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) next to Tel Aviv University.
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