Renaud Large is a communicator and expert associated with the Jean-Jaures Foundation. He is the author of
The clash of species - man against animal until when?
(Aube editions, November 2022).
THE
FIGARO.
- Very present during the debates on pensions, the former presidential candidate has tensed his allies of Nupes.
Implicitly, is it the future of LFI in the bosom or not of Jean-Luc Mélenchon which is at stake?
Renaud LARGE. -
Despite the tension of his partners, it seems that Jean-Luc Mélenchon has established a little more authority over his political family.
This may seem counter-intuitive.
Nevertheless, left-wing opposition to the project was unanimous and strong in popular support.
The pension reform could therefore have seen the emergence of other charismatic figures on the left, rather than that of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
It was not the case.
He extinguished all his internal competitors during the sequence: François Ruffin, Clémentine Autain, Alexis Corbière… In the midst of the chaos, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is aware of remaining the point of reference.
Winning is often making your opponents fail.
At the cost of a few scrapes with his allies, he continues to control his political apparatus.
Nupes seems torn over the strategy to adopt on article 7 of the pension bill, which provides for the postponement of the legal retirement age to 64 years. How to interpret it?
Two strategies face each other to defeat the government reform project.
One, carried by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, aims to weaken the project constitutionally by preventing its vote;
the other, embodied by the rest of the Nupes and the unions, believes that Article 7 is in the minority on the benches of the Bourbon palace, in particular with the support of certain right-wing deputies.
Each strategy has its own coherence.
The final outcome of the bill will weigh on the line of future electoral deadlines and the political magisterium that will embody it.
The confidence rating of unions has risen five points in one year, a first since 2019.
Renaud Large
By preventing last week in the Assembly the examination – and even more so the vote – of Article 7, Jean-Luc Mélenchon prides himself on having thwarted the plans of the Head of State.
“Macron wanted to be able to oppose the legitimacy of the Assembly to that of the social movement with a favorable vote from the National Assembly.
Total failure
,” he wrote on his blog.
For his part, Philippe Martinez denounced on BFMTV the desire
"sometimes on the benches of the National Assembly, and particularly of La France insoumise, to appropriate the social movement to relegate the unions to the background"
.
Why do the unions seem to refuse submission to the rebellious?
As constitutional expert Benjamin Morel explains, the legislative vehicle for pension reform is possibly fragile from a constitutional point of view.
By preventing the vote, Mélenchon wishes to increase the possibilities of constitutional censure against provisions introduced without the approval of the national representation.
He prefers this strategic option to the strength of parliamentary alignment with the union bloc.
The reference to the Charter of Amiens - which has imposed for a little over a century the separation between trade union and political activities - is not the most explanatory point.
Coordination between the trade union and political sphere already exists, as will no doubt be the case again when the bill is read in the Senate.
In the National Assembly,
Can we see in this a desire on the part of trade unions to regain control in a context of the decline of intermediary bodies?
Apart from the debate on pensions, the inflationary context tends to re-legitimize the unions in wage negotiations.
Thus, in the tenth wave of the “French fractures” survey published at the end of 2022, in particular by the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, the confidence rating of the unions rose by five points in one year, a first since 2019. It is light since only 38% of French people trust unions.
It would therefore be possible, in the long term, for a large leftist formation to emerge, uniting all of its main currents.
Renaud Large
Nevertheless, one can think that, for the French, the unions allow to weigh more in the structuring of work.
On the strength of this quivering support, the trade unions wanted to strengthen their positions during the public discussion on pensions.
A too visible submission to the political sphere would not have helped this reconquest of intermediary bodies.
In the long term, can we imagine the emergence of a large formation of the radical left which could overlap parties, trade unions, NGOs?
Despite their profound differences, the leftist formations tend to come together.
It would therefore be possible, in the long term, for a large leftist formation to emerge, uniting all of its main currents.
François Ruffin, for example, is a link between the different parties.
As for the NGOs and trade unions, it seems complex to formally incorporate them into this movement, otherwise they will lose their power of prescription and their share of voice in the public debate.
They could, if need be, be satellited and act in conjunction with the political sphere, on the model of the former PCF “partners” of the 1950s and 1970s.
However, this scenario is impossible as long as Jean-Luc Mélenchon will be there.
Despite his denials, it seems possible that he will be a candidate for the presidential election of 2027. Emmanuel Macron not being able to stand again, the rebellious leader can imagine qualifying in the second round and winning against Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella.
So there's little reason for him not to try his luck.
Despite everything, Mélenchon is also a point of tension and rejection for part of the PS and EELV.
With regard to the last congress of the PS, it is difficult to see the first secretary Olivier Faure initiating a project of unification of the Nupes by having his former opponent, Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol, critic of this left alliance, in the direction.
