By Sahil Kapur and Scott Wong —
NBC News
WASHINGTON, DC—
There's an old joke that senators look in the mirror and see a president.
These days, a lot of on-camera mirrors seem to be broken.
The Republicans have an open presidential primary in 2024, and the Senate is packed with hyperambitious and self-assured politicians, many with national followings and barely hidden presidential aspirations.
Yet almost everyone is overlooking a run for the White House next year after former President Donald Trump launched his campaign in November to seek a return to power.
“This cycle is shaping up to be very different from all the cycles since 2000, when it seemed like half the Senate was running for president,” said Alex Conant, who worked for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio in his office in the Senate and then in his 2016 presidential campaign.
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That year, the GOP field was so packed with senators—Rubio, Ted Cruz of Texas, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina—that Conant recalled a candidate forum in New Hampshire where a handful of candidates participated from a study in the Capitol.
None of them have expressed interest in returning this cycle.
Now a new group of Republican senators who are said to have higher aspirations -- Florida's Rick Scott, Missouri's Josh Hawley, Arkansas' Tom Cotton and Iowa's Joni Ernst -- have also been sidelined.
Former President Donald Trump speaks during his visit to East Palestine, Ohio, February 22, where a train derailed nearly a month ago.ALAN FREED/REUTERS
“Every senator has a different reason,” Conant said.
“Many of them are young and have the luxury of waiting.
In 2024, you'll be up against a sitting president and a former president, which has historically been quite a hill to climb.
This is not like 2016 when there was an open White House and an open Republican race,” he said.
Cruz, Hawley and Rick Scott, whose congressional seats are up for grabs in 2024, chose to seek re-election rather than roll the dice on a White House bid.
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“I never said I was going to run for president,” said Hawley, 43, who has been steadily raising his national profile with foreign policy speeches and headline-grabbing legislation.
“I have not visited Iowa or any of those places.
So I look forward to running for re-election” in the Senate, he said.
Rick Scott just said, "I'm running for Senate."
Asked if that means he definitely won't be running for another office in 2024, he replied: "Right."
One exception to this trend is Sen. Tim Scott, Republican of South Carolina, who is inching toward a 2024 presidential bid but has yet to announce a final decision.
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Cruz, who finished second to Trump in the 2016 race, toured the country during the 2022 midterm election cycle, seeking out his fellow Republicans and racking up chips.
But in recent weeks, he has made it clear that he plans to run for another term in the Senate and help his party regain control of the chamber.
“It will be an interesting year.
I suspect it's going to be a wild and complicated race,” Cruz, 52, said when asked about former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley's involvement.
"I hope I can support the Republican candidate."
In 2016, Cruz, Paul and Rubio were freshman senators.
Today all three have fancier titles as ranking members of important committees: Cruz on the Commerce Committee, Paul on the Homeland Security Committee, and Rubio on the Intelligence Committee.
Lindsey Graham, who won a fourth term in 2020, is the top Republican on the Judiciary Committee.
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And the pain of being beaten by Trump that year lingers.
Despite losing re-election in 2020 and inciting the mob that attacked the Capitol on January 6, 2021, Trump retains a passionate following on the right, leads most Republican polls and is building support in Congress.
“President Trump is the undisputed leader of the Republican Party and is in a unique position to defeat Joe Biden, so it makes sense that so many senators would endorse his campaign instead of running themselves,” said the senior campaign adviser for Trump, Jason Miller.
"We look forward to the impressive list of senators endorsing President Trump to grow in the coming weeks and are grateful for your support."
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Republican, during a campaign event, in November 2022, in Hialeah, Florida.
DeSantis is expected to announce his presidential candidacy in 2024.Lynne Sladky / AP
On the Democratic side, senators are also letting 2024 pass. Just four years ago, seven sitting senators ran for president.
They all lost to a former senator and one of them—one of them, Kamala Harris—became their vice president.
With President Joe Biden all but certain to run again, his former rivals in the Senate are backing his re-election.
Republican elites who want a viable alternative to Trump have been looking outside Washington for his protégé, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who many believe will run for president.
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Other big names with access to wealthy donors, such as former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, also appear to be gearing up for a launch.
“Everyone has to have a lane.
For the primaries, if you can't find your lane, you won't be able to find your way to get there.
Because everyone has to separate, but also get a voting bloc,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Oklahoma, who endorsed Trump.
“Their voters are their (Trump) voters, they will stay there.
They are not going to move,” Mullin said.
"So I just don't see where anybody else's path is to get there."
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But not all agree.
In Iowa on Wednesday, Tim Scott gave a preview of what his potential presidential campaign could look like, when he visited Drake University during his “Faith in America” tour to hear from voters and then delivered a keynote address at the Lincoln Dinner Polk County Republican Party.
Tim Scott, the only black Republican in the Senate, described what he called the Democrats' "plan to ruin America": out-of-control spending and inflation, open borders, an opioid epidemic and critical race theory in schools, but he also spoke about his family's inspiring story "from cotton to Congress."
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“I am here because my family chose faith over anger, responsibility over resentment, and patriotism over pity.
My grandfather taught me that he could be bitter or better.
Not both.
My mom said that we could be victims or victors.
She chose to be victorious.
I am living proof that our Founding Fathers were geniuses to celebrate, not cancel,” said Tim Scott at Drake University in Des Moines.
“Indeed, we are the land of opportunity, not a land of oppression.
This is just my American story."
Like Mullin, Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Alabama, has thrown his support behind Trump;
he was expected to play golf with the former president at Mar-a-Lago this week.
The former Auburn University football coach said the way the GOP can develop a deep leadership bench is for younger candidates to apply and gain experience.
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“It's called perseverance.
Before I became a head coach, I was interviewed and interviewed, and finally broke through.
That's how you do it, just by jumping in there," Tuberville said.
But he added that it would be "difficult" for some of his Senate colleagues to run this cycle and be away from their young families, especially with Trump, and possibly DeSantis, dominating the field.
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One senator who knows something about the demands of a presidential campaign is Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, who ran for the White House in 2008 and became the Republican nominee in 2012.
“It is a huge consumption of energy, a financial consumption, but it is a great emotion.
You become more optimistic about the country because you meet people who are not in the news, but who are making lives and driving our economy," Romney said in an interview.
“If you get the chance to run for president, make sure you do it.”
Asked if he had plans to run for president a third time, Romney responded with one word: "No."
