According to a Munich political scientist, Vladimir Putin could use nuclear weapons.
The Ukraine war has already produced two unpleasant developments.
Munich – Vladimir Putin crossed various red lines in the Ukraine war.
Not just with the invasion order a little over a year ago.
The Kremlin chief's rage for destruction seems to know no bounds.
The Ukrainians and their allies are not the only ones wondering how far the powerful man in Moscow would go - especially if he saw his skins swimming away more and more due to the disappointments and setbacks.
Convinced pacifists are not the only ones warning of the final escalation stage – the use of nuclear weapons.
Would Putin also cross this last red line if he thought his war aim was no longer within reach?
Frank Sauer sees a real danger and is surprised at people who dismiss the threats from Russia as pure saber-rattling.
Political scientist on the Ukraine war: "Use of nuclear weapons is within the realm of possibility"
“There is an odd faction of people who claim that Putin's threats are all guaranteed to be bluffs.
That's just dubious," warns the political scientist at the University of the German Armed Forces in Munich in an interview with Die
Welt
.
He is certain: “The use of nuclear weapons is within the realm of possibility.
You have to accept that.”
In the same breath, “it is also extremely important to emphasize that the risk was never acute and is still not acute.
So there is currently no reason for sleepless nights and panic, you don't have to start building nuclear bunkers." According to Sauer, however, the topic of nuclear attacks could be discussed more intensively again, "if Ukraine goes on the offensive and hopefully manages to close more areas to free".
The military intelligence service HUR has already announced a large-scale attack on the occupied and annexed territories in the spring.
Video: Putin cannot ignore NATO nuclear weapons
Putin and the atomic bomb: "He is the sole ruling actor, determines plans and actions"
However, in view of the various attempts to interpret Putin's state of the nation speech, the expert on international politics and security points out that the Kremlin ruler does not seem to feel bound by Russia's nuclear doctrine: "Putin doesn't get up in the morning, just take a look the rulebooks and designs its policy accordingly.
Putin is the sole actor, he determines plans and actions, not doctrine.
And we see every day that standards, rules and laws don't matter to him.” Keyword: red lines.
The Ukraine war has already changed the view of nuclear weapons.
"In this war, Russia is no longer using nuclear weapons just as a reinsurance policy, as a state's last life insurance policy, but also as cover for an imperialist-motivated war of aggression," Sauer makes clear.
This worries the expert: "If this proves to be a tried and tested method, if Putin is successful with it, then other states could possibly want to copy this model in the future." The result: "Owning nuclear weapons would then be even more attractive."
Sauer sees the following as the second problem: "The role of nuclear weapons for the entire Russian military deployment will continue to increase in the future."
In addition, their potential is not as great as expected by the leaders.
"It is therefore to be feared that Russia will rely even more on nuclear weapons in the future to secure its military weight."
Nuclear danger in the Ukraine war: "Putin waits a long time and then makes wrong decisions"
Sauer's brief and painless conclusion to the omnipresent horror is: "We happen to live in the nuclear age, in an age of constant fear of total annihilation."
This is particularly the case in Ukraine.
But also applies to Germany and the other allies.
"If Putin is to be forced to the negotiating table, then he must be defeated militarily and fear for Crimea," explains Sauer. "The crux of the matter is that if the pressure on Crimea increases, the nuclear risk also increases."
This is also related to Putin's apparently not very developed sense of warfare.
The Russian President has “proven to be someone who waits a long time and then makes wrong decisions.
He could have ended the war in September and sold what he had achieved in Russia as a victory.
Instead, he upped the ante.”
This also makes the danger of nuclear war all the more present.
"So if the nuclear question should come to a head again, then a lot of tact will be required politically in the West," Sauer expects.
(mg)
