It is not the first time it has happened, but it does not stop attracting attention.
A
new survey
commissioned by Together for Change ends up in the top positions with leaders of other forces.
In this case, the evaluation was made in the
province of Buenos Aires , and
Cristina Kirchner and Javier Milei
led
the
presidential PASO
.
The poll is from
Nueva Comunicación
, the consultant of
César Mansilla
, a businessman from Santa Fe linked for years to politics and business, and who in recent years has also had his space in the media because he created (and registered in AFA) a team of football, Real Pilar.
Between February 4 and 14, the survey (which would already be in the hands of Larretismo) included
2,070 face-to-face interviews
in the Buenos Aires district.
The results were presented with +/- 2.35% margin of error.
The
data on the methodology is not minor
: it is presumed that online surveys favor the toughest candidates and that with face-to-face, a public that is further removed from politics is reached and may prefer more moderate applicants.
Hypothesis.
The presidential STEP
The table on the presidential primary (key because the Province represents close to 40% of the national electorate) was formed from this statement:
"Although you have not yet decided, if the elections for president of Argentina were today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?
.
The most voted, as anticipated at the start of the note, were Cristina and Milei. The vice president (who until now argues that she will not appear due to a supposed "proscription") reaches 26.6% against 16.6% of the libertarian economist.
The last Buenos Aires survey of Nueva Comunicación: measured presidential STEP.
Next comes
Larreta with 16%
, which takes a slight advantage over her main internal rival,
Patricia Bullrich
, who obtains
13.2%
.
The double-digit lot is completed
by Sergio Massa with 11%
.
In the total for space for the presidential election, the
Frente de Todos
totaled
37.6%
and
Juntos por el Cambio
31.1% (
1.9%
of
Facundo Manes
was added
).
The libertarians only have 16.6% of Milei and the Left Front,
3.7%
of
Myriam Bregman
.
Non-K Peronism remains at the margins of 2.1 points (
1.2% for Juan Schiaretti and 0.9% for Juan Manuel Urtubey
).
4% of "others" closed, 3.5% of "white" and 1.4% of "undecided".
The fight for governor
In addition to the national bid, the study delves into the dispute for Buenos Aires governor.
And there two facts are confirmed: Axel Kicillof is the most elected here and Diego Santilli prevails in the Juntos por el Cambio inmate.
The first measurement in this sense is
by space
and the advantage that the Front of All achieves is small, if compared to the one it took in 2019. Although it must also be remembered that it comes from losing in 2021.
The last Buenos Aires survey of Nueva Comunicación: measured for governor by space.
According to
Nueva Comunicación
, for governor the Frente de Todos leads with 32%, against 28.8% of Together for Change and 12% of the libertarians.
Two key issues: the governorship is defined by a vote, but since it is attached to the presidential election, it tends to pull the national leg of the ballot.
In the STEP scenarios,
three variants
are evaluated , modifying the offer of Together for Change and Frente de Todos.
In all cases, the ruling party wins
, but by rather short differences, which means that the ending is still open and uncertain.
The last Buenos Aires survey of Nueva Comunicación: measured STEP for governor.
In the
first table
, the
Frente de Todos
reached
33.9%
,
Kicillof
23%
,
Martín Insaurralde 5.6%
and
Daniel Scioli 5.3%
;
against
29.9% of Together for Change
, with
17.7% for Santilli
,
6.8% for Cristian Ritondo
,
3.1% for Néstor Grindetti
,
1.7% for Maximiliano Abad
and
0.6% for Joaquín de the Tower
.
The last Buenos Aires survey of Nueva Comunicación: measured STEP for governor.
In the
second table
, the
ruling party remains at 34%
(just one tenth more than Kicillof and Insaurralde and Scioli repeat) and
Together for Change goes to 29.5%
(22.1% Santilli and 7.4% Ritondo).
The last Buenos Aires survey of Nueva Comunicación: measured STEP for governor.
And in the
third table
, similar to a general election, with one candidate by force,
the governor leads with 29.2% against 26.9% for Santilli.
In the three hypotheses, third is the generic "a candidate for Milei".
look also
Alert in Front of All: a survey puts it 12 points below Together for Change for PASO
New survey for head of government: raises Fernán Quirós and burns the intern in Together for Change
