There are few ways that the war in Ukraine will end.
One expert sees Russia's defeat coming in 2023.
He made a surprising prognosis for the country.
Munich – War has been raging in Ukraine for more than a year.
There doesn't seem to be an end in sight any time soon.
NATO is trying to sensitize Kiev to negotiations with Russia, and China has presented a 12-point plan for a political solution to the war.
But the latter in particular is not popular in Ukraine.
Aside from negotiations, defeat is also a way to end the war.
A military expert already sees Russia as a loser.
Military economist makes prognosis on Ukraine war: "Russia already strategically lost"
"It's not a question of if Ukraine will defeat Russia, but when.
Strategically, Russia has already lost the war,” said military economist Marcus Keupp in an interview with the
magazineWB
.
Keupp justifies his statement with the fact that the Russian reserves will soon be used up and Ukraine will continue to be supported by the West.
"Russia's attrition rate is enormous, higher than in World War II," the expert explained.
“Every day Russia loses five tanks and six armored personnel carriers.
It is easy to extrapolate when Russia will run out of material.”
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Russian President Vladimir Putin.
© Gavriil Grigorov/dpa
And when is Russia's defeat supposed to arrive?
"In October of this year, Ukraine will defeat Russia," predicted Keupp.
It is a myth that Russia has infinite reserves.
“In addition, many tank crews were killed.
Driving a tank is easy as pie, but waging tactical warfare with it takes months of training,” he explained.
Soldiers recruited at short notice could not do this.
Russia after the Ukraine war a "developing country" - expert gives prognosis
Western sanctions against Russia are also said to have a positive impact on the course of the war.
According to Keupp, almost all areas of the economy have collapsed.
For example the automotive and aviation industries.
“The Russian fleet consists mainly of Airbus and Boeing aircraft, a quarter of which are grounded and cannibalized for spare parts.
Neither maintenance nor logistics have been possible for months because of the sanctions," said the expert.
The military economist estimates that after the end of the war Russia “will become a developing country”.
The reason for this is said to be a major technological step backwards.
The outlook for future trading partners is no more optimistic.
"Russia will become China's cheap gas station until it's pumped dry and then China throws it in the bin," Keupp said.
In addition, Russia will have to pay for reparations in Ukraine.
The construction of Ukraine is estimated at around 600 billion dollars.
"There will be no peace treaty and Russia will not pay voluntarily."
The expert assumes that in this case the assets will be confiscated abroad.
The future of Russia looks dramatic.
Other experts also assume that Putin's defeat is only a matter of time.
(vk)
List of rubrics: © Gavriil Grigorov/dpa
