New bloc confrontation: Lavrov dreams of anti-Western alliances – but do the partners want them too?

The Kremlin boasted that “two dozen” countries want to align themselves with Russia.

How realistic is expanding an anti-western alliance?

Moscow – Actually, the vote was clear.

Last week, 141 states called for a peace solution in the Ukraine war and a Russian troop withdrawal in the UN resolution.

Seven countries, including Russia, voted against the text and 32 abstained.

Despite all this, Russia by no means sees itself as isolated internationally.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov openly dreams of a new, strong alliance.

Under Russia's leadership against the West.

"Two dozen" countries would already apply for it in Moscow.

But how concrete is all this?

Is Russia creating a counterweight to NATO?

Or is there mostly hot air behind the announcements?

Lavrov dreams of new partners: interested parties "dramatically increased"

Russia is already active in two international alliances.

The BRICS countries are primarily concerned with economic cooperation.

The two (de facto) nuclear powers India and China are also on board.

Both also cooperate with Russia in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), in which several former Soviet states are also active.

The group of eight states, led by China and Russia, have made security and cooperation their priority and want to create an alternative to what they see as a Western-dominated world order.

If Lavrov has his way, both state alliances could grow in the future.

The Russian news agency Tass quoted him as saying that the number of countries wanting to join BRICS and SCO has “increased dramatically”.

• BRICS countries

  : Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa

• SCO

  : China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan

According to Lavrov, these countries should have an interest in a Russia alliance

Lavrov stressed that these are countries that "play a really important role in their regions."

Specifically, the Putin minister named Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Argentina, Mexico and "a number of African countries" and said: "The list of names alone shows that the attempts [of the West] to isolate our country have failed.” But are these countries really on Russia's side?

First of all, all of the states named by Lavrov voted against Russia in the UN resolution.

Only the usual partners Belarus, Eritrea, Mali, Nicaragua, North Korea and Syria voted for Russia.

Overall, Lavrov's candidates are making a few moves towards Moscow.

President Lopez Obrador criticized

NATO's Ukraine policy.

The war would serve the self-interests of the great powers.

planned

closer cooperation with Russia

However, President Alberto Fernandez then condemned the invasion and offered Volodymyr Zelenskyy assistance in peacemaking in the summer.

Indonesia,

on the other hand, is divided.

The fourth largest country in the world by population depends on fertilizers produced in Ukraine and Russia, as well as agricultural products such as wheat, and is feeling the effects of the war.

"The lives of hundreds of millions, even billions of people have been affected," Indonesian President Joko Widodo said during a visit to Moscow last year.

He had previously traveled to Kiev, which observers took as subtle support for Ukraine.

However, at the G20 summit, Indonesia resisted Western public pressure to disinvite Russia.

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Shaking hands with the warring parties: Indonesia's President Joko Widodo visiting Moscow and Kiev.

© Itar-Tass/Ukrinform/Imago (montage)

Egypt's new course towards Russia - including "intensive military cooperation"

Egypt

is the largest wheat importer after Indonesia, and Africans are also heavily dependent on Russia in other areas.

The Science and Politics Foundation explains: “Above all, Cairo has developed intensive military cooperation with Moscow in recent years.

Between 2014 and 2020 alone, Russian armaments worth more than 3.2 billion US dollars were imported.” Egyptian foreign policy has finally changed under the new President Sisi.

"This reorientation ended the country's strong ties to the West, which shaped the 30-year Mubarak era."

So why did Egypt vote against Russia several times at the United Nations?

"The vote can be explained by the economic dependencies on the West," writes the SWP.

"The highly indebted country needs a new agreement with the IMF and for this the support of the Europeans and the USA." The Kremlin could count on other countries voting against Russia out of self-interest - but actually open to cooperation.

Several African states abstained from the most recent UN vote, such as the BRICS state of South Africa and Mali, where Russia is militarily active.

In recent years, Russia has increasingly sought to connect with African countries.

The CDU/CSU parliamentary group is already recognizing "increasing Russian support for often autocratic regimes in Africa" ​​and wants to deal with the topic on Friday (March 3) in the Bundestag.

Oil-rich partners: Russian relations with the Gulf

Like other Gulf states,

the

and

In the Ukraine war, they quickly get caught between the fronts.

It is about security policy and economic interests.

Both countries live off their oil reserves.

Perhaps that's why they act rather cautiously, for example when the UAE abstains in the Security Council.

Relations with Russia within OPEC should not be jeopardized.

According to the SWP scientists, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are aware of their security and military dependency.

“But they will continue to exercise restraint until Washington makes concessions.

But even then their interest in the best possible relations with Russia will not wane.”

Anti-Nato exhibition at the Moscow Museum of Russian Contemporary History

Anti-Nato exhibition at the Moscow Museum of Russian Contemporary History

Expert on Russia-Turkey Relations: Membership "Not Exactly Realistic"

That leaves

, whose mention in Lavrov's list is particularly explosive.

After all, the country is a member of NATO.

Turkey acted as a mediator in the Ukraine war.

Among other things, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan negotiated the grain agreement.

The country is significant only geographically in the Black Sea region and maintains close ties with Ukraine and Russia.

However, Turkish Russia expert Kerim Has considers Turkey's membership of the SCO or BRICS to be unlikely.

"That's not exactly serious and realistic, at least for the moment," explains the expert

Turkey's NATO membership is "from a technical point of view the most important hurdle" before joining the SCO.

Even if the opposition triumphs against Erdogan in Turkey's 2023 elections, a concrete step towards membership is unlikely, according to Has.

After all, Turkey's membership of the SCO would directly affect not only the country itself, but also the environment, Turkey's hinterland, and regional and transatlantic relations.

Therefore, the Russia expert emphasizes that he does not believe that neither Erdogan nor the opposition could or would take this "important and critical step".

Even with BRICS, Has does not expect Turkey to become a member, at least under the current circumstances.

He justifies this primarily with the precarious economy of the country.

BRICS is not directly an international organization in the sense of the SCO, but merely a kind of platform with a focus on economic cooperation.

"Turkey would probably want BRICS membership, especially in these difficult economic conditions," he explains.

The expert believes that Russia would also welcome this.

However: According to Has, there is no improvement in sight for the Turkish economy in the short term, which would put additional strain on the BRICS countries instead of relieving them if the country were to join the group.

Therefore, the probability is low that the BRICS countries other than Russia would view Turkey's accession positively.

"I think the ball is in BRICS's hands," Has emphasized to our editors.

All in all, Russia's boastful tones about new partners only seem theoretical at first.