The Ukrainian military is apparently planning a withdrawal from the embattled city of Bakhmut.
Experts disagree about the consequences for the course of the war.
Donetsk – For several weeks, a bitter battle has been raging in the Ukraine war for the city of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast.
The city had over 70,000 inhabitants before the start of the war.
There are now just under 6,000 civilians left in the badly damaged city.
Russian soldiers and Wagner mercenaries besiege the city from the east and north.
The Ukrainian defenders have so far held Bakhmut, which was designated a “fortress”.
But that could change in the coming days.
Because Kiev is apparently preparing to withdraw.
The military consequences of this measure are unclear.
Ukraine war: Bakhmut before the fall?
Kyiv is apparently preparing to withdraw
The current situation in the city is devastating.
Over the weekend, the head of the Wagner mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin, reported the capture of several small settlements northeast of Bakhmut.
In the past few weeks, the Russian armed forces had tried, with heavy losses, to cut off the supply lines of the Ukrainian troops.
Apparently with success.
The main supply lines to Kramatorsk and Konstantinovka are under Russian control or have been destroyed.
The only remaining route - west to Chasiv Yar - is also within range of Russian artillery.
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Ukrainian soldiers patrol the embattled town of Bakhmut.
© Evgeniy Maloletka/dpa
As a result, a change in communication strategy has already been observed in Ukrainian politics over the past few days.
In the past, President Zelenskyy said that nobody would give up Bakhmut.
The common narrative is now: the city will be defended, but not at any price.
Kiev could therefore already prepare a final withdrawal from the city in order to prevent a complete encirclement by the Russian soldiers.
Wagner boss Prigoschin sees "bitter resistance" in Bakhmut - doubts about withdrawal
Ironically, Wagner boss Prigozhin doubts the reports about an impending withdrawal of the Ukrainian troops.
On Wednesday he stated that Ukrainian troops would even strengthen their positions.
“The armed forces of Ukraine in Artemivsk (the Russian name for Bakhmut,
editor's note
) are building up additional reserves and are trying with all their might to hold the city.
Tens of thousands of soldiers of the Ukrainian army are putting up fierce resistance, the bloodshed of the fighting is increasing every day," the Russian news agency Ria Novosti quoted Putin's Koch as saying.
Last week, Prigozhin publicly complained to the Kremlin that his Wagner mercenaries were being denied the ammunition they needed to achieve success in the region.
The losses suffered so far in the Battle of Bakhmut are immense.
The Wagner mercenaries alone are said to have lost around 30,000 recruited convicts.
This information cannot currently be independently verified.
For military expert Masala, capturing Bakhmut would be more than a symbolic victory
The impact that a Ukrainian withdrawal from the city would have on the course of the war still seems unclear.
Undoubtedly, the capture of Bakhmut would have symbolic value for the Russian armed forces.
After taking the cities of Sievjerodonetsk and Lysychansk last summer, Vladimir Putin's army failed to gain territory.
It was only in January that the Kremlin was able to report another military success with the capture of the small town of Soledar in the north-east of Bakhmut.
The taking of Bakhmut after months of fighting could definitely be exploited by Moscow for war propaganda in the media.
But would it also have a military meaning?
At least that's what the military expert Carlo Masala fears about ntv.
"If Bakhmut falls, then the Russian troops can easily advance about 80 kilometers behind them because there is open terrain and would then have occupied a large part of the Donbas."
Ukrainian experts: Bakhmut's fall would not affect the course of the war
However, the Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov comes to a different conclusion.
He told the AP news agency that a withdrawal from Bakhmut would have no impact on the course of the war.
He based his assessment primarily on the terrain to the west of the city.
The Ukrainian defenders had already set up a position on an elevated position in the town of Chasiv Yar, 15 kilometers away, to which the soldiers from Bakhmut could retreat.
The city itself no longer has any strategic value due to the heavy destruction.
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General Viktor Nazarov, military adviser to the Ukrainian army, also stressed Bakhmut's minor tactical importance.
For Kiev it is much more about defending against any offensive efforts by the Russian army.
“Why are the Russians attacking in Bakhmut?
Because there are no other promising places for them.
Why is it important for Ukraine to defend Bakhmut?
Because it's our country," Nasarov explained in an interview with Der
Spiegel
.
(fd)
List of rubrics: © Evgeniy Maloletka/dpa