The threat of Russia's nuclear weapons in Ukraine 2:20
Editor's Note:
Marion Messmer is a Senior Research Fellow in the International Security Program at the Chatham House Center for Studies.
Her focus is on arms control, nuclear weapons policy issues and Russia-NATO relations.
The opinions expressed in this comment are her own.
Read more opinions on CNNEE/Opinion.
(CNN) --
A cursory reference to the possibility of Russia resuming nuclear tests was glossed over in President Vladimir Putin's speech to parliament last week.
In a surprise move, Putin said Russia was ready to resume nuclear weapons tests if the United States conducted one first.
While most of the media attention has focused on Russia suspending its participation in the New START nuclear arms treaty, this announcement was just as significant, with potentially devastating consequences.
It would mean another step towards escalation in Ukraine by demonstrating Russia's intention to use nuclear weapons and could start another, more devastating nuclear arms race.
Neither Russia nor the United States have conducted nuclear weapons tests since the early 1990s;
soon after, they negotiated the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in Geneva, and while both India and Pakistan conducted nuclear tests in 1998, only North Korea has continued to test nuclear warheads since then.
If Russia were to resume testing, other nuclear weapon states could follow.
North Korea would certainly take this as carte blanche for further testing and there would be US concerns about falling behind Russia in developing new nuclear capabilities.
All of this potentially leads to a new arms race dynamic.
The United States has no reason or intention to resume such tests.
But by inserting this into his state of the nation address, Putin appears to be creating a false narrative that the US is working to conduct a nuclear weapons test to justify Russia breaking the CTBT and once again conducting your own tests.
In fact, the Russian state news agency, TASS, reported in early February – days before Putin's speech – that the Novaya Zemlya nuclear test site is ready to resume if necessary.
What are tactical nuclear weapons and what would happen if Russia deployed one?
Putin: Russia cannot ignore NATO's nuclear capability 2:42
Why would Russia want to start conducting nuclear tests again?
First, as a sign of intent to bypass all nuclear agreements, demonstrating their ability and determination, nationally and internationally, to use nuclear weapons.
And secondly, because Russia is developing new nuclear capabilities, and it does not have enough data without new warhead tests.
The reason is not comforting.
A Russian nuclear weapons test would shatter several decades of international agreements and any sense of certainty in nonproliferation efforts.
The CTBT endorses the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by creating a credible premise that states will reduce their nuclear arsenals over time rather than continue to expand.
What would Russian nuclear weapons tests mean for other nuclear weapon states?
It would raise concerns in other nuclear weapon states that Russia may gain valuable information from test data that is currently being lost.
This could lead to more states testing as they modernize their arsenals.
In the United States, some political figures are likely to call for nuclear weapons tests, not wanting to be outdone by Russia or left behind.
A new nuclear arms race would emerge with various competing nuclear powers, amid the few remaining treaty restrictions.
By abandoning the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and expanding their nuclear arsenals, Russia and any other state joining a new series of tests would do serious damage to the NPT.
It is hard to see how it could recover from such a drastic deviation from its central promise, that the five nuclear-weapon states will reduce their reliance on nuclear weapons, resulting in complete and irreversible disarmament.
It would also increase the potential for other states seeking nuclear weapons again.
South Korea has already hinted several times this year that it will invest in a nuclear program if the threat from North Korea does not abate.
A return to a global nuclear arms race may push them to the brink.
Nuclear tests could also be interpreted as a sign of further escalation, demonstrating Russia's determination to use nuclear weapons in war or an escalation of the conflict between Russia and NATO.
It would mean a sea change from Putin's rhetorical threats to a dangerous reality that could easily spiral out of control.
Putin and the suspension of the nuclear weapons treaty 3:27
What could be done if Russia was seen preparing for a nuclear test?
A Russian nuclear weapons test would not come out of nowhere.
Intelligence services could see the preparations ahead of time.
The US and UK have been sharing regular defense intelligence updates since before the invasion of Ukraine, to signal to Russia that its motives are transparent and to help allies coordinate.
They could use this same mechanism to call attention to an upcoming test and try to prevent it.
In such a case, the international community should work together to convince Russia of its seriousness and consistency in the face of a nuclear weapons test.
The response must be to immediately increase sanctions until Russia reverses any preparations for the test.
The European Union should act more quickly on sanctions than it has done before.
Knowing the risks, other states that have so far avoided taking a position might switch and join the transatlantic pressure on Russia.
China India have a key role to play.
So far, they have taken an ambivalent stance on Ukraine, abstaining from UN votes and refusing to ostensibly condemn Russia.
However, they have criticized his nuclear threats.
China has shown that it is not comfortable with such risky nuclear policy and equally does not want Russia or the US to invest in the expansion and development of their arsenals.
Seeing such test preparations, China could threaten to withdraw its political and economic support for Russia, which would deal a serious blow to Putin's military ambitions.
What could be done if Russia tests nuclear weapons?
By conducting a nuclear weapons test, Putin may want to scare Western states out of supporting Ukraine.
However, it is far more likely that NATO member states, worried about escalation, will simply double down on their support.
There are no good options in this scenario: a conventional NATO response could also be an escalation.
A change in nuclear alert levels would send a strong signal to Russia, but could also lead to further escalation.
A new nuclear arms race would look different from that of the Cold War.
It would no longer be largely a race between Russia and the US and would certainly include China, and would have other implications of regional nuclear dynamics.
In the event of a Russian nuclear test, all other nuclear weapon states (with the exception of North Korea, which is unlikely to join) would have to unite against nuclear testing and work to bring Russia back into compliance.
History has several examples where the world came close to a devastating nuclear war and was saved by good fortune.
Relying on good luck is not a great strategy, especially in such a complex and tense situation.
Add in an increasingly isolated Russia, with a president making decisions without potentially moderating input from other top officials, is a scenario for disaster.
Nuclear weapons