It's practically official now.
February inflation will be at 6%
.
Marco Lavagna confidentially informed the President and Sergio Massa.
In the last few hours, he sent the first preliminary report from INDEC: meat has risen strongly, the rebranding has advanced in services and the inertia seems unstoppable.
That secret paper needs to include the last days of February.
The trio prays that the index does not exceed -in the end- the ceiling of 6%.
Lavagna has already notified that the INDEC number will be between 5.6% and 6.1%.
And that
March is complicated
.
A JP Morgan report describes it bluntly: "Our scenario calls for
average monthly inflation in the first half of 5.9%
."
The issue is repeated in the Wall Street documents.
Confidential texts from UBS, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse match.
For this reason, these works carried out for its exclusive clients are concentrated in the medium term.
And they aim to figure out
what will happen after the election
.
The Wall Street papers agree on three conclusions.
The majority maintains, as a first measure, that Alberto Fernández reaches the August elections, without the economic bomb exploding beforehand.
In other words, Massa's difficult financial status quo
would be sustained until PASO
.
They also affirm that today's photo ensures a victory for the opposition and a displacement of Kirchnerism.
Although in the case of Argentina doubts persist.
In the influential "Council of the American" in Manhattan they insist that there will be "seeing is believing, there will be no blank check for anyone."
Information about a secret meeting between Argentine economists and a heavyweight from the Treasury
shook New York bankers
.
Michael Kaplan, is Janet Yellen's right-hand man and responsible for Latin America as Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs.
His partner is an Argentine with solid ties in Buenos Aires.
Both organized a dinner at their home to which
they invited at least two former presidents of the Central Bank
, one of them a family acquaintance.
In addition there were other Argentine economists.
The Wall Street version indicates that
Guido Sandleris and Luis Toto Caputo were cheerleaders for the meeting
.
But both deny having been in Kaplan's flirtatious house.
Sandleris categorically says that he did not participate and Caputo overreacts.
"I haven't traveled to the United States in 2 years," he says.
In that meeting he ended up talking about Argentina.
The diagnosis was very critical of Massa's management.
The guests spoke of the need to seek a zero deficit and to impose high reserve accumulation goals.
They affirmed: "This is the only way to get out."
Kaplan saw the propitious field and asked about a future devaluation.
The answer was concrete: "It will be inevitable
. "
Thus, the social meeting became a bomb.
Kaplan -prudent- blanked the meeting in the Treasury and also in the IMF.
From there it was the talk of Washington.
The warnings were in line with the latest Juntos economic document in which it was denounced that Massa is assembling a bomb to explode the next government.
Jorge Argüello transmitted the information to the Casa Rosada.
Alberto wants to use it to -again- accuse Mauricio Macri of trying to sabotage the government.
Macri counterattacks:
"The only thing that economists say is the truth
. "
The former president is teaching in Italy.
This Thursday he gave it to the driving team of the Ferrari automaker.
Mauricio Macri and Facundo Manes.
Before, in Buenos Aires, he had met alone with Facundo Manes.
This warned him that he is not getting off and will be a candidate for president for the UCR.
In other words, that he will compete against Gerardo Morales, Macri's archenemy.
They say in the environment of the former president that at the end of March he would define his political future.
He returns on March 22.
But Mauricio put cold cloths: "We are to win the internal, but we must
prepare a proposal to get out of this disaster
."
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta has a key meeting with an imminent breakfast alone with the US multi.
In addition, there is expectation for the launch on Monday of the Mediterranean Foundation.
There will be Juan Schiaretti and the darling of businessmen, Carlos Melconian.
The new agreement with the IMF
The Kaplan affair was not discussed in the meeting between Kristalina Georgieva and Sergio Massa.
They both knew of its existence, but they did not want to throw gasoline on the fire.
As Clarín exclusively anticipated, in India the change of the agreement and the new reserve accumulation goal were agreed upon.
Sergio Massa with International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the G20 Finance Ministers Summit in India.
The decision implies a political question because it is a question of support from Washington -the White House and the IMF- for Alberto Fernández to reach the elections without the economy exploding.
Without a doubt, it means relief for the BCRA and takes pressure off Massa.
But it does not solve the underlying problem, the lack of foreign currency in the Argentine economy
.
A shortage that promises tension and turbulence in the exchange market.
In Washington they confirm that the agreement will become official next Monday.
Luis Cubbedu's team is working against the clock to make the announcement.
There was still an arduous technical discussion between Cubbedu and Gabriel Rubinstein.
The differences motivated the Argentine mission in Washington to postpone their return to the country for 48 hours.
Kristalina Georgieva came to India with the spike caps.
She censured the intervention and repurchase of bonds that Massa ordered in the market.
The Head of the IMF was categorical:
"The reserves are not for that"
.
Massa covered himself: "We did the same thing that the US Treasury does." Georgieva also talked about inflation. It is red hot and that is why the fiscal and monetary deficit targets are not being changed.
Massa would have advanced another bomb.
The BCRA has the political decision to apply a greater tourniquet and monetary squeeze.
Alberto spoke with Kristalina from Buenos Aires.
The President himself spread the talk to score a success.
He overreacted and said: "I demanded a political response from Georgieva."
Alberto is jealous of Massa and tried to overshadow his achievement in India
.
The competition is unusual and reflects the irresponsibility of the government.
Argentina is on the edge of the precipice and the Casa Rosada plays to the influences.
Alberto also opted for a ruthless offensive against the Supreme Court.
He generated an institutional crisis to cover Cristina's corruption.
This Thursday the country risk rose and the dollar woke up again.
Carlos Rosenkrantz and Horacio Rosatti.
The judges of the Court in Congress where they were attacked by the president in his speech.
Photo: AFP
The Court will not respond.
The judges say that it was an ambush and they even changed their usual locations in the venue to mount the escrache and television show.
Alberto had
the offensive phrases marked in bold
in his speech , to overact his speech when he spoke about the Court.
The President adhered to Cristina's worst speech but could not -even so- ingratiate himself with the Vice who did not try to hide his discomfort.
She does not forgive Alberto for his betrayal of the functional pact
.
She made him President and he, in return, solved her problems in the Courts.
Now Cristina's anger is linked to the election and the "sad role" that the President plays.
The Vice wants changes in the government.
She says that without a swerve in Alberto's management there is no chance to compete in the elections.
Alberto counterattacks, alludes to psychiatry, assures that he is not going to touch anything at the Casa Rosada and ratifies his candidacy.
The question upsets Cristina:
"I want changes and he fools me with his re-election
. "
And cruel concludes: "Playing stupid is what works best for him."
look also
Kirchnerism does not loosen up after the presidential speech and Alberto Fernández stretches his re-election operation
The "Political Harvest" started: Horacio Rodríguez Larreta arrived in Mendoza and opened the parade of presidential candidates