François Godement is a historian and advisor for Asia at the Institut Montaigne.
THE
FIGARO.
- China unveiled a proposed plan to end the war between Ukraine and Russia on February 24.
This document invites the parties involved to “support Russia and Ukraine to work in the same direction and resume direct dialogue as soon as possible”.
What to remember from this text?
Can we take it seriously?
Francois Godement. -
This plan takes up the main elements of the Chinese position since the start of the invasion.
First, there is talk of the “Ukrainian crisis”.
Neither of war, nor of the role of Russia.
Respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty is not accompanied by any precision.
"Security guarantees"
are
demanded for all - therefore also for Russia.
The only details concern nuclear power: rejection of the use of nuclear weapons and also of attacks against civilian nuclear power stations, rejection of the use of other weapons of mass destruction.
If the rejection of the use of nuclear weapons may indeed seem to be a warning to Russia, it should not be forgotten that China has never specifically mentioned the occupation and the bombing of the Zaporizhia power plant. , and that Chinese propaganda accuses the United States of maintaining chemical and biological weapons laboratories in Ukraine.
On the other hand, German opinion in particular is worried about nuclear power, the Chinese position on this point had been presented as the essential achievement of Chancellor Scholz's trip to Beijing last October.
This point is therefore a form of - limited - reassurance for Europeans.
The rest is a reaffirmation of constant positions, without any concrete application to the current war.
China's peace plan was released a day after Beijing abstained from voting on Thursday night's UN resolution calling on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. What is the Chinese regime looking for? Should we see in this a desire on the part of Beijing to become a central player in the conflict?
China's objective is rather to take a position on ending the conflict, which will please countries that do not support Ukraine.
This position could be the subject of a resolution at the United Nations General Assembly, to counter the resolutions of Western countries.
Only a complete defeat of Russia against Ukraine could be particularly detrimental to China.
Francois Godement
Hoping to give itself the image of a neutral mediator, isn't China just supporting Russia in its invasion of Ukraine?
Stakeholders in the conflict cannot completely overlook the possibility of Chinese mediation, or even a role of messenger, or godfather of Russia if the United States and Europe fulfill this function alongside Ukraine. (see the 1954 Geneva Conference which ended the Indochina War).
If Russia was content to say that this plan was
“interesting”
but that the time had not come, President Zelensky for his part declared that he wanted to meet Xi Jinping.
In addition, Poland asserts that China cannot pose as a mediator, but evokes
“positive”
points .
Kazakhstan also speaks of this plan as “interesting”.
President Macron's trip to Beijing in April must include a Ukrainian component.
However, this does not mean that France supports the Chinese project.
Chancellor Scholz, meanwhile, has acknowledged that
"there should be no illusions about China"
, which will not give up its support for Russia, and Joe Biden affirms that the idea that China would negotiate an end to this war
"is not rational"
.
In summary, the Chinese plan blurs – a little – the cards, and many states want to maintain communication with Beijing.
Between its economic difficulties, linked in particular to its zero Covid policy and its tacit support for Russia, can China “lose everything”?
On the contrary, she thinks again that she can
"win everything"
.
The Covid wave seems to have passed abruptly but quickly.
The first signs of a strong recovery are emerging.
Many countries - led by Germany - find it hard to imagine that sanctions could harm their bilateral trade with China, having already suffered the backlash of sanctions with Russia.
The war in Ukraine does not directly mobilize the American army, but poses problems of stocks, and could constitute an additional difficulty in the event of conflict with China.
Read alsoNicolas Baverez: “China after the “zero Covid””
China is an essential rear base for Putin: energy sales, crucial imports, payment in yuan and not in dollars, diplomatic and propaganda support... Only a complete defeat of Russia against Ukraine could be particularly detrimental to China.
Finally, the difficulties of the Russian troops sent to Ukraine serve as a lesson to the PLA (Editor's note, the National Army of the People's Republic of China), because many of its weapon systems are derived from Russia.
The fact remains that China has financial and industrial resources that cannot be compared to those of Russia.