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Russo-Ukraine War|Half a year of bloody battle and the fall of the "Bahmut Fortress" is imminent?

2023-03-03T10:59:39.181Z


The salt-mining city of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast has been the only place where Russian-Ukrainian frontlines have engaged in intense firefights for most of the past six months. Russian personnel have said that in


The salt-mining city of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast has been the only place where Russian-Ukrainian frontlines have engaged in intense firefights for most of the past six months.

Russian personnel once said that it may take a week to capture a house here.

Russia and Ukraine also suffered heavy losses here.

Today, the Russian army's advancing step by step and the outflanking from the north to the south have roughly decided the victory. It is reported that the city of Bachmut is full of fire and bombardment. Humanitarian rescuers can no longer enter the center of the city. The traffic supply channel has fallen into a fierce bombardment.

The fall is only a matter of time, and the only option for Ukraine seems to be an "orderly retreat" to avoid a "chaotic rout".

Is Bachmut worth the bloodbath?

Bachmut had a pre-war population of 70,000, but today there are less than 5,000 left.

According to an American who came here to teach English in 2010, he was invited by the mayor who has been in power since the collapse of the Soviet Union to participate in activities with officials of the Ministry of Education and gave a speech in Russian when he arrived here. The mayor also described him as a A "very special teacher".

This shows the marginality of this small city in geopolitics.

Bakhmut, which has been without water and electricity for a long time, has been empty.

(Reuters)

Strategically, analysts generally believe that Bachmut is of little value.

Although it is the place where many traffic arteries pass, in the west of Donetsk Oblast, which the Russian army has not yet captured, there are still a bunch of small towns and highlands that can be defended after Bakhmut-for example, according to reports, The army is now deploying its defenses in Chasiv Yar, a small town of 10,000 people on a hill about 15 kilometers west of Bakhmut.

And further to the west is the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk (Slovyansk-Kramatorsk) twin cities, which have been consolidated and tightly defended since 2014.

Whether it is the military opinion of the West, Ukraine, or Russia, there are voices against the bloody battle between Russia and Ukraine that may lose as many as 100 people every day.

Some believe that after the frontline stalled in July last year, the retreat of Kharkiv Oblast in September, and the withdrawal of the southern city of Kherson in November, Putin desperately needed victory and therefore focused his firepower on Bakhmut. .

Another opinion pointed out that the main attack on Bachmut was the Wagner Group, whose leader, Yvegeny Prigozhin, the "Putin cook" did his best in order to use his "military exploits" to win his position in Russia. political influence.

But in any case, if Putin's long-term goal is to annex Donbass, which has legally become Russian territory, attacking Bahmur is ultimately unavoidable.

The situation map around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

(screenshot of liveuamap)

The Ukrainian side is said to have been pressured by the U.S. many times, asking it to retreat from Bakhmut and preserve its strength for future counterattacks.

However, the long-term Russian attack has turned Bakhmut into a symbol of Ukrainian resistance.

"Balmut is still there" became a rallying cry for Ukrainians.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky even used the word "fortress" to describe Bakhmut. When he visited the United States last December, he even sent the Ukrainian flag with the signatures of Bakhmut's frontline soldiers to the U.S. Congress.

For some people, defending Bachmut with life is just a symbol without much real meaning.

However, other military analysts believe that defending Bakhmut can contain Russian forces and consume Russian personnel. As Napoleon said, "When your enemy is making mistakes, never hinder him."

But do not admit it or not, under the slow advance of the Russian army, Presidential Adviser Rodnyansky (Alexander Rodnyansky) recently stated that if the cost of defense outweighs the benefits, the Ukrainian army will strategically abandon Bach Mutter, "We will not sacrifice in vain." Although there are reports that Ukraine is sending more personnel to Bakhmut, some analysts believe that this is just an action to prepare for an "orderly retreat".

On December 21, 2022, in Washington, USA, Zelensky presented the Ukrainian flag to Pelosi and US Vice President Kamala Harris.

The flag is from the Bakhmut garrison and bears the signatures of front-line soldiers.

(Reuters)

Although Bachmut is now a deserted ruin, its eventual defeat would be Russia's biggest victory since last July.

However, unlike last May, when people speculated that Putin would declare a victorious ceasefire after capturing the Sea of ​​Azov port city of Mariupol, now Ukraine's Lugansk, Donetsk, Zappo The four states of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson have been "publicly thrown into Russia". Putin's only visible political choice is to continue fighting.

The victory of the Russian army did not change the stalemate

On the entire front line from north to south, the Russian army at this moment undoubtedly regained the initiative.

Although the large-scale offensive launched by the Russian army on Vuhledar (Vuhledar) in the southwest of Donetsk Oblast at the turn of January and February suffered a disastrous defeat. It is said that over a thousand people were lost in two days and nearly 130 tanks were lost in total. However, in its counteroffensive in Luhansk Oblast to the west of Kharkiv Oblast, as well as the siege of Bakhmut this time, the Russian army has demonstrated the endurance of aid and advancement.

The current battle has the shadow of the early days of the Donbass Battle from April to June last year: Although the Russian army advanced slowly, the Ukrainian army could not stop this progress.

But how long will this style of play last?

Long-term combat is also an endless loss for both sides.

The war of attrition is also a bet with an unknown future: for Ukraine, in terms of the country's population, it is more expensive than the consumption of personnel, and it must not be as good as Russia. The financial and military support of Europe and the United States offset the population disadvantage to a certain extent; for Russia, various analyzes have shown that Russia has also experienced a shortage of ammunition, especially precision missiles for long-range attacks. The number of missile attacks has been greatly reduced in the past 20 years. Even though the Putin government has been urging military production recently, it is still a question of whether it can make up for the consumption on the battlefield under the limitations of Western sanctions.

For both parties, it would be a better way out if the war can be stopped by means that are beneficial to them.

However, the "ceasefire on the spot" that the Russian side clearly hopes to reach and the "full withdrawal of Russian troops" that the Ukrainian side keeps repeating are not acceptable conditions for the other side.

In this dilemma, all parties seem to be trying to reverse the situation.

It was reported to be Russian troops on the rooftop of a building in Bakhmut.

(Reuters)

Ukrainian troops attack across the border for the first time?

On March 2, the town of Bryansk Oblast, located on the Russian-Ukrainian border, took place in the town of Bryansk Oblast.

Putin even canceled his scheduled trip to the Caucasus region, and made a televised speech accusing "neo-Nazis" of launching "terrorist attacks"; Alexander Bogomaz, governor of the Buyansk region, accused the incident of dozens of Ukrainian saboteurs, saying they had entered Russia. The border opened fire on a vehicle carrying children, killing two civilians and injuring a child; Russian media also once reported that six people were taken hostage.

Ukraine has denied the allegations, saying it was done within Russia.

However, a group known as the "Russia Volunteer Corps" (Russia Volunteer Corps) has admitted responsibility, claiming to occupy the town where the incident occurred.

The regiment claimed to be composed of Russians and claimed to belong to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, saying the attack was to show the Russians that "hope remains" and that "free Russians can fight the regime with arms in their hands."

Videos online showed that one of the group's members was a white supremacist far-right ex-German who was born in Moscow and moved to Ukraine a few years ago.

It is still difficult to ascertain the facts behind the attack.

However, judging from the fact that an A-50 "Bumblebee" early warning aircraft at an air base in Belarus was attacked by a drone on February 26, and the Belarusian anti-government armed organization BYPOL admitted its responsibility, a certain force really wants to create trouble and change the war. Direction - A few days before the attack, Belarusian President Lukashenko (Alexander Lukashenko) had just stated that unless Ukraine attacked targets in Belarus, it would not send troops to support Putin's war.

Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) holds talks with visiting Belarusian President Lukashenko (left) at the Great Hall of the People on March 1.

(Reuters)

China factor unknown

On the other hand, China has also become an element that may turn the tide of the war from different angles.

Although the "China's Position on the Political Resolution of the Ukraine Crisis" released by China on February 24 is not the specific peace plan that people expected before, it shows that China seems to have a tendency to increase its participation in resolving the war between Russia and Ukraine—especially Putin's earlier After meeting Wang Yi in Moscow, he has repeatedly mentioned Xi Jinping's visit to Russia this spring.

For the United States, dubbing the "Sino-Russian Alliance" is very beneficial to win over European allies to join forces to contain China. Therefore, recently, American officials have continuously reported that China is considering exporting lethal weapons to Russia, and even began to discuss possible countermeasures with the European Union. China sanctions.

The dubious Europeans have also repeatedly warned China that "exporting weapons to Ukraine" will be a red line.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned China not to send weapons to Russia in his speech to the Reichstag on March 2.

Scholz himself and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will visit Washington on March 3 and next week respectively - they are expected to discuss potential sanctions against China with Biden.

But for Europe, China's military aid to Russia is of course a concern. However, after China put forward its position paper on Ukraine, some European leaders obviously believe that China intends to play a more active role in the issue of the Russia-Ukraine war. In their eyes, this opens up a space for "China to put pressure on Russia". Both French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Scholz have recently publicly expressed this desire.

German Chancellor Scholz will visit Washington on March 3.

(Reuters)

It remains to be seen whether China will become a factor in breaking the stalemate in the long-running war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine, but we will know a thing or two from the development of Xi Jinping's visit to Russia in the next few months.

Britain, France and Germany promote peace talks?

Although the United States has always emphasized that it will support Ukraine for a long time, as the 2024 election year approaches, voices from within the Republican Party of the United States, ranging from Trump down to some members of Congress, against aiding Ukraine will enter mainstream media reports. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (Ron DeSantis), who is most likely to challenge Trump in the Republican Party, is not clear about his stance on Ukraine. Europe is already worried that US aid will not last.

The Washington Post reported on February 24 that Britain, France, and Germany believed that strengthening NATO's commitment to military aid to Ukraine would enable Ukraine to defend itself against Russia after the armistice and encourage Ukraine to conduct peace talks with Russia.

The report said that when Zelensky met with Macron and Scholz in Paris earlier, the latter two had told Zelensky to start considering peace talks; the report also quoted French officials as saying that no one believed that Ukraine could regain Ukraine Rimia—the implication is that it is some kind of arrangement to "cede land for peace".

Increasing NATO military aid can be regarded as "killing three birds with one stone".

One is to aid Ukraine in the name of NATO, which makes it more difficult for the United States to withdraw its aid due to the change of government; Launching a counter-offensive with obvious results forced Russia to seek peace talks at a disadvantage; the third was to replace joining NATO with strong military aid, on the one hand to ensure the future security of Ukraine, and on the other hand to appease Russia’s worries about NATO’s eastward expansion. Ukraine handed over some land to Russia in a decent way, so that Russia can also take a step down.

Just like Macron's remarks at the Mu'an meeting that "now is not the time for negotiations", the most ideal development for Europe is that Ukraine succeeds in its counterattack, and Russia is finally forced to return to the negotiating table.

But ideals are of course far from reality.

The fall of Bahmut would not break the deadlock, but the motivations of all parties to seek to do so are already clear.

The first anniversary of the Russo-Ukrainian War|One piece of understanding: Is "NATO's eastward expansion" still a reason for conflicts?

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2023-03-03

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