"Today's Ukraine, tomorrow's Taiwan" is an argument that the United States has been throwing out after the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been fermented and disseminated by the media. It intends to compare China with Russia. It believes that Russia invades Ukraine, and China will take back Taiwan by force. China is the same as Russia. Threats and challenges to world security.
The U.S. has calculated very shrewdly. As former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in a public speech, the U.S. spent tens of billions of dollars to put Russia in a mess, which is too cost-effective.
Therefore, some people in the US strategic community want to repeat this game in Asia.
So who will play the role of "Ukraine" in Asia to contain China?
Will Taiwan be the next Ukraine?
Jin Canrong, a scholar of international relations at Renmin University of China, said recently that some people in the U.S. strategic circle are trying to repeat the Russia-Ukraine war in Asia. Because Taiwan is "small" and it is difficult to leverage China, they are also planning to treat Japan as "Asia's Ukraine."
According to Jin Canrong's understanding, Taiwan is not just a card used by the United States to attack China in public opinion, but more likely a card used by the United States to use war to contain China.
And Taiwan's leverage is too small, and Japan is being pulled into the water by the United States.
At a time when Sino-US relations are at an impasse, diplomatic relations between China and Japan are not bad.
The picture shows Kong Xuanyou, the Chinese ambassador to Japan, held a departure reception in Tokyo on February 24. More than 800 people from political and business circles, including former Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda and former secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party Toshihiro Nikai, attended.
(Chinese Embassy in Japan)
The author does not quite agree with this judgment.
Ukraine and Japan cannot be compared.
Japan is a much smarter country than Ukraine and a country with more choices than Ukraine.
Japan is the third largest economy in the world. In dealing with China, Japan once played a leading role in TPP, CPTPP and Indo-Pacific strategy.
Japan is very aware of its own value, as well as its own difficulties and demands.
For Japan, the United States plays multiple roles of military protection, market provision, and political support.
Japan's role to the United States is not only military, it has a place in the high-end chip manufacturing industry and other fields.
Japan and the United States have much more room for bargaining and cooperation than Ukraine.
Even as a last resort, Japan's choice is far greater than that of Ukraine.
In Japan's judgment, it will not be driven by the United States.
How much Japan takes depends on how much pressure the United States exerts on it.
There is a certain amount of room for gaming.
Japan has been using the United States, while Ukraine is simply attached to the United States.
Ukraine is a plywood between the United States and Russia, and Japan itself is an ally of the United States.
China has full psychological expectations for the United States to arm Japan and support Japan.
China will not force Japan to choose sides and lead to deterioration of relations between the two countries.
Japanese Deputy Defense Minister Yasuhide Nakayama stated via video at a think tank symposium in Taiwan in 2021 that the closest point between Japan and Taiwan is only 110 kilometers away.
(Wu Yihua/Duowei News)
Japan is a defeated country in World War II and has no military right to belligerent.
Even if Japan tries its best to lift military restrictions, its power status and China's long-term war are not equal.
What Japan first seeks is normal military power, and its subjective intention of actively seeking to get involved in the war with China is relatively small.
More importantly, Ukraine will be attacked by Russia, but China is not Russia. The territorial dispute between China and Japan is limited to the Diaoyu Islands, and there are very few fuses that will detonate the conflict between China and Japan.
The Diaoyu Islands crisis between China and Japan experienced a very dangerous fermentation around 2012.
At that time, the strength gap between China and Japan was smaller than today, and Japan had greater confidence and strength to attack China.
However, in the face of danger, both China and Japan can handle their differences well, and it is impossible to handle their differences poorly today.
Just increased support from the United States is not enough to be a reason for Japan to act.
China is very clear that its target is not Japan.
In the situation in the Taiwan Strait, Japan is currently eager to try, not because Japan wants to take action, but because the United States' investment and instigation of the regional situation determines that Japan must make a difference before it can make a difference.
Japan takes advantage of the United States' need for Japan to play a role in the Taiwan Strait, and strives to lift the military embargo. This is Japan's manipulation of the United States.
After Japan has lifted its military restrictions and formed its combat power, whether it will take action against China needs further examination.
Japan's current practices and future choices cannot be compared in the same breath.
G20 Foreign Ministers Meeting︱Australian Foreign Minister: I hope China can "do the right thing" in the Russia-Ukraine War | G20 Foreign Ministers Meeting | Host country India issued a chairman's statement: no joint statement on Russia-Uzbekistan disputes | China does not intend to mediate the crisis ?
It is difficult to balance China's position on the Russia-Ukraine issue between being anti-American and pro-Russian
