Without Cristina Kirchner on the board of options, a
new electoral poll
measured internal
PASO for the presidential election
.
And it left
very striking results
.
Which is it?
A flat tie in the Front of All, a wide difference within Together for Change and very high numbers for Javier Milei.
The study that
Clarín
accessed this Sunday is from Opinaia, a pioneering consultancy in online measurements and which has the City Government among its current clients.
In addition to the national scenario, the report included a Buenos Aires section, which this newspaper advanced, and put Martín Lousteau as the most voted.
The survey included a survey of
2,000 cases throughout the country
, interviewed between February 5 and 7, with +/- 2.2% margin of error.
floors and ceilings
The first cut that shows the electoral chapter is of floors and ceilings of the main forces.
And there, in the middle of the well-worn debate on the crack,
the first alert for polarization appears
: the best numbers are not shown by the ruling party or Together for Change, but by Milei's libertarians.
The economist's space has a floor/safe vote of 21%, a ceiling of 58% when 37 points of probable vote are added, and a rejection/I would never vote for him of 42%.
The latest national survey of Opinaia.
He measured electoral floors and ceilings for the presidential election.
It is followed by JxC, with 16% floor, 54% ceiling and 46% rejection. The FdT closes, with 14%, 35% and 65%
respectively.
The three spaces have fairly stable numbers since October 2022, when the series starts.
hot internal
The following table is the most interesting and the one that leaves the most readings.
Measure the
internal STEP of the main spaces
, running to Cristina Kirchner from the offer.
The impact within the governing coalition is very interesting and would support the hypothesis advanced by Clarín and shown by other studies: support for the vice president remains within the force and is distributed among several candidates.
The latest national survey of Opinaia.
He measured STEP stage for the presidential election.
In Opinaia numbers, it is a total of 24% that is divided between Alberto Fernández (6%), Sergio Massa (6%), Axel Kicillof (5%), Máximo Kirchner (3%), Daniel Scioli (2%) and Wado de Pedro (2%)
.
The latest national survey of Opinaia.
How the PASO scenario for the presidential election evolved.
The alarm in
Together for Change
appears from the outset in the total:
it fell four points in one month
and today it reaches 27%.
And then the difference that Patricia Bullrich takes from Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
is striking : 12% to 6%
.
They complete María Eugenia Vidal (4%), Facundo Manes (3%) and Gerardo Morales (2%).
Where
everything is celebrated is in the libertarian world
: as the only candidate, Milei tied the six of the Frente de Todos.
She gets 24%
, which in parallel doubles who is nominally the second most voted (Bullrich, with 12%).
Close, with marginal numbers, the
non-K Peronists Juan Schiaretti (3%) and Juan Manuel Urtubey (1%)
, and the representatives of the
Left Front Nicolás del Caño (2%) and Myriam Bregman (1%)
.
Plus 18% undecided.