Turkey, in the crosshairs of NATO 3:05
(CNN) --
When Sweden and Finland declared their intention to join NATO last May, many saw it as a prick in the eye for Russia and evidence of a shift in European thinking.
Historically, both countries had pledged not to align with NATO as a way to avoid provoking Moscow.
The invasion of Ukraine changed that.
Both Finland and Sweden — along with the vast majority of NATO allies — would like to see the countries formally join the alliance at a NATO summit on July 11.
However, one major hurdle stands in the way of this becoming a reality: Turkey has yet to give the plan its formal and official blessing.
Turkey is not the only nation blocking the move: Hungary has also not ratified the accession of the Nordic countries, further muddying the waters.
However, at the moment, the priority is considered to be putting Turkey aside.
NATO formally begins the process of ratifying the membership of Sweden and Finland in the alliance
Unfortunately for the pro-NATO camp, Western officials are increasingly pessimistic that Turkey will cave.
Officially, the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, opposes the membership of Sweden and Finland for what he says are security reasons.
Turkey claims that both countries, but particularly Sweden, host militants of the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a designated terror group in Turkey, Sweden, the United States and Europe.
Erdogan says that he would like these individuals to be extradited;
Sweden has made it clear that this will not happen.
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NATO diplomats are divided on whether they believe Turkey will relent before the July summit.
At the center of both schools of thought is this year's Turkish election, perceived as the biggest political threat Erdogan has faced in years.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will meet the Swedish and Finnish foreign ministers in July 2023. A NATO diplomat told CNN that Finland is likely to secede from Sweden and opt only for the membership.
(Credit: Yves Herman/Reuters)
“The image he has created of a strong man who gets results for the Turkish people has been shattered,” explains Gonul Tol, of the Middle East Institute's Turkey program.
“There is a lot of anti-Western and anti-Kurdish sentiment in Turkey at the moment.
This is a good theme for him to bang his drum on and a dramatic U-turn would only make him seem weaker.”
Tol believes there are other reasons why Erdogan does not want to upset Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"Russia has been an economic lifeline for Turkey after other nations imposed sanctions over its activities in Syria, its military cooperation with Russia and other hostile activities," Tol explains.
“Without Russian money, Erdogan would not have been able to raise salaries or provide financial support for students.
He now he promises a reconstruction after the earthquake.
So Russia remains an attractive partner for Erdogan."
Like many Western officials, Tol believes that Turkey's claims that Sweden and Finland harbor terrorists provide a perfect cover for Erdogan not to get involved at a politically inconvenient time on the NATO issue.
While nothing may come of planned talks between the three parties this Thursday, a talk is underway about how much political capital Erdogan might have to spend after the election, should he win.
First, the optimists.
This group includes Sweden, Finland, and some of the countries that border Russia or lived under Soviet rule.
They believe that Turkey, which benefits greatly from being part of NATO, will ultimately do what is in its best interests and drop objections.
For this to happen, officials are preparing for Turkey to make more realistic demands than handing over people it considers terrorists, such as lifting sanctions or the US allowing Turkey to buy the fighter jets the country needs with urgency to keep your air force up to date.
ANALYSIS |
Why is Turkey causing problems for Finland and Sweden in their NATO membership processes?
"Go just for the membership"
Ultimately, the optimists believe that there is a compromise that greatly favors NATO.
The alliance, Sweden and Finland have made their case and NATO has an open door policy for any country that wants to join.
Sweden and Finland have more than met the criteria, so not joining makes a mockery of the alliance, an alliance that Turkey benefits from being a member of.
A NATO official told CNN they assumed Erdogan would wait for the summit before relenting so he could enjoy the "praise from all his Western allies."
The much larger group among the officials who spoke to CNN are pessimists.
They think that the chances of Erdogan changing his position before July 11 are slim to none and they are already thinking beyond that summit.
"I think it is increasingly likely that Finland will secede from Sweden and opt only for membership," a NATO diplomat told CNN.
Other alliance members still see a real possibility of both countries being blocked and are considering how best NATO can handle such a scenario.
Multiple NATO officials and diplomats told CNN that the danger here is that Turkey's blockade fuels the Kremlin's narrative that the West and NATO are divided.
The alliance's job at that point will be to make it clear that, even if they are not members, Finland and Sweden are now effectively in step with NATO.
They may not be members, but they are as close partners as it gets, and no longer neutral.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is considered the closest EU leader to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
(Credit: Mikhail Klimentyev/AFP/Sputnik/Getty Images)
Even if Turkey can be played, there is the different, if less complicated, issue of Hungary.
Prime Minister Viktor Orban has indicated publicly that he is not opposed to the Nordic nations coming together, but continues to find ways to stop a decision from being made official.
There are a few reasons why Orban would want to evade the situation.
Finland and Sweden have criticized Hungary for its rule of law record.
He addressed this in a recent interview, asking how "can anyone want to be our ally in a military system while they blatantly spread lies about Hungary?"
Orban is considered the EU leader closest to Putin.
Katalin Cseh, a Hungarian Member of the European Parliament, describes Orban's blocking of the Swedish and Finnish offers as "just another favor to Vladimir Putin."
Cseh believes that Orban, who has been accused of drifting toward autocratic leadership, has "spent more than a decade copying his policies and building a Putinist model," and that any perceived NATO victory over Putin "endangers all his regimen."
Orban may hold out to win concessions from other EU member countries, where Hungary has been accused of breaking all sorts of laws.
The result was the withholding of EU funds and contempt for the bloc.
While NATO and the EU are separate entities, they share many members and it is plausible that bilateral diplomacy could see some give and take between Hungary and its EU counterparts.
ANALYSIS |
Does the West's decision to arm Ukraine with tanks bring NATO closer to a war with Russia?
Yet for all Orban's delays, it is widely assumed that if Turkey can be confronted, Hungary will stop opposing Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Many do not miss the irony that one of the main reasons Putin gave for invading Ukraine was to put an end to what he claimed was NATO expansion.
The fact that his aggression could have pushed a historically non-NATO-aligned country is still seen by most in the West as a major own goal for the Kremlin.
However, until an agreement is reached, the future of the alliance remains somewhat up in the air.
Finland and Sweden effectively chose sides from the start of the Ukraine conflict.
It seems unlikely that they would return to a position of neutrality if the war were to end suddenly.
The risk to NATO and the Western alliance in general arises if they do not join the alliance and the Kremlin can use it for propaganda purposes.
If that happens, even if the war ends suddenly, the narrative of a divided West will continue to be the drum that NATO's opponents can beat.
NATOVladimir Putin
