Polarization takes Mexico

The electoral reform of Andrés Manuel López Obrador captures all eyes in Mexico.

There is no other issue that is more divisive or controversial.

The package of changes promoted by the president, which entered into force this week, limits the powers and cuts a good part of the operational structure of the National Electoral Institute (INE), the entity in charge of organizing the voting.

The president's followers maintain that it is a lapidary advance to bury a "golden bureaucracy" and start a "real democracy", after decades of simulation.

Sectors critical of power affirm that the new measures are a setback and that they put the fragile democracy of the Latin American country at risk.

There are even those who accuse the arrival of a "dictatorship", while the other side accuses them of "traitors" and "corrupt".

Both sides have taken to the streets to flex their muscles in recent weeks, packing the Zócalo in Mexico City, Mexico's most iconic square.

At stake are the rules of the game for the 2024 presidential vote, but also the forces that compete to become the next government.

Everything, in an environment of increasing polarization.

Without half measures or space for dialogue.

The dance of polarization

The rejection of the electoral reform triggered last weekend the largest opposition mobilization in the five years that López Obrador has been in power.

The demonstration summoned a heterogeneous mosaic.

There were the citizens concerned about the democratic health of the country, the historical figures who fought for political alternation and the moderate academics who demand counterweights to the presidential hegemony.

But there were also recalcitrant critics who fear "turning into Venezuela or Cuba", some old caciques who suddenly emerged as defenders of democracy and many leaders of an opposition in crisis, who saw a unique opportunity to capitalize on discontent and gain support in the race for the presidency.

López Obrador lumped everyone into the same bag and dismissed the protests as a desperate attempt by his rivals to delegitimize him.

"They don't care about democracy," he settled this week in one of his morning press conferences.

Reluctant to criticize, the president launched himself against those who called the demonstration, calling them hypocrites, neoliberals and drug traffickers.

“Fake,” “white-collar criminal,” “cynical,” he said Monday, after making a list of the best-known participants in the demonstration and projecting their photos on screens.

On Tuesday, López Obrador complained about the media coverage of "the march of the corrupt" by international media and "other mercenaries in the media."

“It is a sign of pride for us to face these people with that retrograde, authoritarian and

, ”he commented on Wednesday.

“We have the most expensive elections in the world,” he said Thursday.

"They are, really, very cretins," he settled on Friday about his adversaries.

López Obrador presented in his press conference the day after the opposition march a list of conveners that included congressmen, businessmen and intellectuals. Sáshenka Gutiérrez (EFE)

As in Spain and many other countries, the coordinates of the current political debate revolve around large black boxes such as populism, disinformation campaigns and the promotion of issues such as gender equality and the defense of minority rights.

The particularity of Mexico is that the opposition is headless.

It does not have clear leadership that can compete with Morena, the movement and political party in power.

Opposite is an omnipresent president in all public affairs and with broad popular support, especially among bases that have felt permanently marginalized by the powerful, the architects of the "old regime."

The approval of López Obrador exceeds 60% in the polls.

For this reason, López Obrador is often the first to divide the board between good and bad, heroes and traitors.

During his tenure, the Executive has established itself as the only one that sets the pace and tone of political discussions in the country: all debates are about him and are discussed under his terms.

"In this polarization, the president has everything to win because he has resources that no one else has," says Salvador Camarena, a columnist for this newspaper.

Camarena affirms that López Obrador uses State resources, such as public television, to amplify his message and launch excessive, personalized and unsubstantiated attacks, instead of responding to the questions with arguments.

“The president overwhelms and thus reduces the possibility of plural voices being heard, let alone critics,

But it takes two to dance.

Enrique Gutiérrez, an academic from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, points out that, among all the valid claims, disinformation and manipulation also came together in the march last Sunday, encouraged by characters who sought to take advantage of discontent and genuine concerns. .

"At times, it seemed more like a march against the president than in favor of the INE," says the political scientist.

“Many of these actors have given up being a serious and responsible opposition, with an alternative political project, and have preferred to be linked to that speech against the president,” he adds.

A man during the march in defense of the INE, in Guadalajara (Jalisco), on February 26. Francisco Guasco (EFE)

All this occurs just over a year before the elections, while Morena and her allies control 22 of the 32 states.

In addition to the Presidency, in 2024 nine governorships, the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies are in dispute.

The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) arrives sunk in the worst crisis in its history and mortally wounded by several corruption scandals.

The Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) is fighting to keep its registration.

The National Action Party (PAN), the main opposition force, is still digesting the coup of the sentence against Genaro García Luna, Secretary of Security in the Government of Felipe Calderón (2006-2012), for drug trafficking and organized crime in the United States.

"It is an orphan opposition, without projects and without figures," Gutiérrez sentences.

Plan B

“Plan B” is the short name for electoral reform.

Since the second half of last year, López Obrador pushed for a constitutional reform on the INE, which required a two-thirds majority in both Chambers.

The opposition formed a bloc in Congress and struck down the project last December.

Given the lack of consensus, the president resigned himself to following an alternative route to change only secondary laws, for which he only required a simple majority, which he counted on.

Anchored in the popularity of the president, the reform has majority support.

Two out of three people approve of a change, according to an Enkoll survey for EL PAÍS published last November.

Regardless of technicalities and debates, the argument of many is simple: it is a sign that the Government "is doing its job" and "that something is being done to improve what is there," explained Heidi Osuna, the director of the pollster.

Roberto Heycher is sworn in as the new executive secretary of the INE before Lorenzo Córdova, president of the organization, this Friday. RAQUEL CUNHA (REUTERS)

The motivations happen for political and personal reasons.

López Obrador's animosity towards the electoral referee goes back almost two decades.

The president blamed the INE for his defeat in the 2006 elections against Calderón for an alleged “electoral fraud” and affirmed that he has been harmed by the Institute's resolutions.

Since he came to power in December 2018, López Obrador imposed an austerity discourse, despite criticism that the operation of various areas of the Public Administration was compromised.

In the case of the electoral referee, the Executive ordered budget cuts each year and targeted the president of the body, Lorenzo Córdova, who is about to finish his term next April.

I have nothing to say to the president.

The cuts of the new reform represent a saving of 5,000 million pesos (about 260 million euros) in 2023, according to the calculation of the Executive.

But his detractors say that cheap will be expensive.

“It is a setback because it structurally weakens the INE under the pretext that it is going to save money, which, by the way, is not clear,” says María Marván, former councilor of the organization.

“It's a deeply destructive law,” she adds.

The INE warns that having fewer resources will compromise fundamental tasks to give certainty to the elections, such as the control of political parties, the calculation of the quick count of votes and the training of citizens to be polling station officials.

Eight out of ten positions in the professional career service and 300 district boards, which are responsible for preparing and organizing elections, will be eliminated.

And the electoral calendar is also reduced: there will be less time for internal candidate selection processes, as well as for challenges and controversies between political forces.

“It is a primarily administrative modification that creates many questions about how the INE will work, but that has nothing to do with the arrival of a dictatorship,” says Gutiérrez.

The political scientist does highlight some points, such as guaranteeing the right to vote for the population in prison or beginning to test electronic voting.

Objects used by the protesters deposited in a trash can after the march on February 26. Rodrigo Oropeza

Fireproof

The debate on the electoral reform goes through the past and the future of democracy in the country.

The guarantor of the elections in Mexico is the product of decades of political and social struggle.

Before, the Government itself was in charge of organizing the elections, which made it possible for the PRI, the state party in the 20th century, to govern uninterruptedly for more than 70 years.

Marván warns of a risk of reopening the door to the Executive to hold votes.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, for example, would be in charge of keeping the register of Mexicans residing abroad, but also of counting the votes, says the former counselor about the changes in the reform.

"Democracy was a conquest, we were not used to it and for that very reason it is treasured," says Marván.

In many sectors, fears about the ghosts of the past have revived.

The idea of ​​a weakened referee is traumatic for many citizens, who have championed the slogan of "the INE does not touch".

Actually, the INE has been touched many times.

Almost all the presidents of the “democratic era” have sought changes in the way public offices are chosen.

The last electoral reform was a constitutional amendment in 2014, part of the consensus formed by the PRI, the PRD and the PAN in the so-called Pact for Mexico.

So, Morena did not exist as a political party and it is an argument of many that a valid arrangement is needed.

Panoramic view of the capital's Zócalo during the concentration in favor of the INE on February 26. Rodrigo Oropeza

Marván, however, assures that this time is different.

Because consensus was not sought among the political forces.

Because a president had never adopted the tone of López Obrador against the body or against the Judiciary, that he will be in charge of resolving various points that may be unconstitutional.

Because the historical trend is for the opposition to seek more equitable rules of competition, not for the majority bloc to impose itself to close the door on its rivals.

"The last electoral reform that was made to benefit whoever was in power was in 1946, the setback is that big," says the jurist.

The tension around “Plan B”, which obscures discussions about adjustments that cannot be postponed in the political system, occurs in the midst of the race for the longest succession in the recent history of Mexico: two years before the appointment to the polls, knows that four high-profile politicians from Morena want the presidential chair.

Some opposition politicians, far behind in the polls, have also raised their hands.

Ultimately, the litmus test of the impact of the reform, if it survives the examination of the Judiciary, will be the 2024 elections. It will be the first count of the damage, of everything that Mexico lost or won at the polls.

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