Photos do not drag votes
Patricia Bullrich approached Daniel Scioli and told him: "I'm going to need you when I'm president."
Scioli responded: "I'm going to need you too when I'm president."
This crossing, verified when it rained turnips and melons over the Harvest Festival,
illustrates the strength and weakness of the gestural in politics.
Patricia managed to align local radicalism and the rest of the country around her candidacy.
A cut that left Cambiemos halfway out - Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, Gerardo Morales, Elisa Carrió, Mario Negri and Martín Lousteau were not in that photo - if one more was missing, there was no room, Macedonio would say that it was also Fernández.
Scioli distinguished himself from the big heads of the ruling party who went to Mendoza - Sergio Massa, Wado de Pedro, to mention only the presidential candidates of the cabinet
: he was the only one received in the government house by Governor Rodolfo Suárez.
A recognition that the other ministers did not achieve,
tied to the grudges of Alberto Fernández with Mendoza,
from which the ambassador seems to detach himself.
The bid is for the ring of the candidacies
The gestures of the leaders are a main ingredient in the campaigns.
But they lead to confusion for those who believe that the photos drag the electorate.
If it were only a matter of taking photos, he would be solving everything – Macri knows it, who has plenty of prestigious photos, but they are not enough to get him out of halftime.
The images do not affect the decision of the voters, who already know what they like, and what they do not.
They have decided in advance who they will vote for.
They are gestures that have the leaders themselves as their clientele, and serve them to dispute their space on stage.
There is no photo that modifies the voting intention of the 30/32% that Peronism has in any election.
Nor is there a photo that modifies the adherence above 40% that Juntos por el Cambio has in the seven largest districts of Argentina.
Signals like the ones provided by the Mendoza Harvest only fuel a bid for the ring of nominations.
The votes are already where they are and nothing is going to move them.
Families at odds: Harvest vs. Carrió's birthday
Bullrich put together a radical arch - who doesn't know if he is macrista or just anti-larretista.
He kept the testimony of one of the internal families of the opposition.
In front of him is the arch identified with Larreta-Morales, who celebrated Elisa Carrió's birthday last December
at her house in Capilla del Señor.
Anyone who wants to make history urgently should look at those two photos and see where the opposition's internal bid is cut off.
The difference is that at Carrió's party there was laughter and songs, she danced to “Muchachos” and Larreta took a karaoke exam.
The Mendoza photo was grim as Mendoza are
.
There are, of course, some family members floating on the edge.
Lousteau was not in either of those two photos.
Rodrigo de Loredo does not have enough big eyes to see where to stop: he belongs to a national space-the loustosism that is a partner of Larreta-that plays against him in Córdoba.
In his province he goes against Luis Juez, challenged by the macrismo.
But don't be fooled;
They are all windows to sweep votes within the same space, which will not be divided in the ballot box.
They will win or lose all together.
Macri manipulates the inmate of others
This week Morales wants to bring together the leaders that make up the national board of Together for Change.
The agenda is as uncertain as the date it will take place.
But it includes a decantation of this game of gestures, where Macri appears as a
remote manipulator
of the internal radicals:
he pushes Bullrich's wiggle with Cornejo, flatters Facundo Manes with food and caresses
- he told him that he is the best candidate of his party for president, a way of telling him that he would like him as vice president in a PRO formula –
and De Loredo, whom he invites to dinner as if they were co-religionists.
It is
not
to distance himself from the same Morales whom he snubs today
.
Reviewing the Mendoza scenario implies auditing the format that Morales has printed for his leadership at the UCR, which is contaminated with his triple role as president of the National Committee, governor and candidate.
This moonlighting results in a division of the party block in the Chamber of Deputies and a certain distance from the two leaders of the block of Congress: Mario Negri and Luis Naidenoff (aligned today with Gustavo Valdés).
Negri often repeats that "to be together, you have to build together".
Radicalism has already gone through this fraying before.
In 2003 they played Moreau vs.
Terragno for the candidacy, and Leopoldo plunged the party into the worst of defeats (2.35% of the vote).
In 2007 Julio Cobos was Cristina's deputy and Morales de Lavagna's deputy.
To be a leader, it is not enough to be a boss
The opposition of Together for Change has to adjust the details of its strategy.
One of them is the construction of leaderships that rise above the contradiction in their strengths.
Leader is the one who contains his contradiction.
Whoever doesn't, is head of his faction.
Nothing else.
It's the difference between being a general and being a colonel.
Macri tries to contain his contradiction in the PRO, but he can only balance by saying that he is not a candidate.
This allows him to flirt with Manes and Larreta at the same time.
He needs to do it with Morales, who also lacks the decision to pick up the phone and meet with Macri in Los Abrojos, not in Pepino, to see if we understand each other.
In Cambiemos something like this can only be done by Carrió, who is above those grudges,
and uses the paralyzing finger very selectively.
Larreta tries, but Bullrich doesn't want anything to do with him and files him off when he can.
The risk of this fiddling is that the internal bid enters into a zero-sum emery, which would imply that Cambiemos candidates campaign saying that the governments of Jujuy or CABA (Morales and Larreta) are part of the unbearable Argentina that Macri or Patricia want change.
Be careful, that is already being said by the ruling party candidates and it is the flag of Christianity.
Scioli wants to get votes from the management
Scioli takes advantage of gestures, a trade for which he is an unbeatable stylist.
He campaigns while holding public office, something difficult today in an officialism that finds it difficult to show management.
He receives governors from all parties and ties his fate to his success as ambassador to Brazil.
He uses the same method as Massa-trying to get the management to be invoiced in votes-but he does better than the minister.
Sergio cannot contain the disorder of the indicators.
Scioli, on the other hand, brings it to Lula with the same Vaseline with which he brought you Bolsonaro and is in charge of going to the Harvest with Brazilian wine buyers, not with wine drinkers
like so many who took advantage of the free drink at the wineries over the weekend.
He did not stay with the rest of the government officials at the barbecue that the Vila group organizes every year.
Better to be above those gestures.
This week he has Vasco de Mendiguren in Brasilia for tasks that he believes are more profitable for his candidate profile.
He believes that he reaps inside and out
He laughed at the crossroads with Bullrich and let time run, the great computer - as he insists in his strategic explanations while in La Ñata he caressed his political apparatus, that is, his cell phone.
He is convinced that he can be competitive in a PASS of the ruling party because, unlike the others noted, from Cristina to Alberto, passing through Massa, Wado or Capitanich-he can garner votes within Peronism and also outside Peronism.
With this differential, he takes advantage of positions that bring him revenue.
Like when he said that in the debate on drug trafficking in Santa Fe "I am to the right of the right."
She garnered support from sectors that he did not expect.
She bets on the same chip as when she was governor and faced the guarantee that Cristina supported from Olivos.
In that bid of his then minister Ricardo Casal and the national head Nilda Garré, she was ejected to the OAS and Casal remained in office.
It happened in 2013. Punitiveness pays off in the metropolitan area, which is why it was the flag of Duhalde, Rico, Patti, Ruckauf and De Narváez, after Vidal and now Bullrich and Scioli.
Week for handsome: Stornelli, Aníbal, Alberto
With this weather begins a week for handsome.
Will prosecutor Carlos Stornelli be so handsome to go to the Political Judgment Commission this Tuesday?
In the weekend there was news that he will not go.
But this Monday there is a meeting of the opposition bench in which it will be reported whether or not he attends the interrogation of the Savonarolas.
He has plenty of leather because he has already faced other "poufs".
Stornelli has the record of being the same prosecutor who in 20 years faced two presidents - Menem in the arms case, and Cristina, who slipped away from the arrest request, like Menem, because she occupies a capacity bench.
Alberto's speech before the Assembly emptied the commission of the little technical rank it had.
A camera ruling on the bench of deputy Roxana Reyes in the Council of the Magistracy, and against the ruling party, removed one of the grounds for the request for trial.
The endorsement of Luis Juez on behalf of the Senate is about to fall - it depends on whether a Chamber or the Court unlocks it, if he admits a per saltum - and if it happens, the music changes.
So much so that this week there may already be a meeting of Parliamentary Work in the Council, which has not met since the new integration in November.
The organism will be able to choose vice-president and holders of the commissions, so that a new stage of its busy history begins.
Frivolities: super interesting or re?
Aníbal Fernández is also exposed to a handsome test on Thursday.
He is summoned to the Chamber Security Commission
.
In the last session of Deputies, which occurred before the Rosario outbreak - the threat against Messi's family -, the ruling party admitted the minister's appearance.
But now the debate has another color.
Aníbal has a tough skin and whether he goes or not will depend on whether or not the government agrees with the debate.
Until now, the ruling party responds with few resources to the state of insecurity in Rosario, which has not started now but has not helped to resolve it either.
In
the treatment of security issues there are excesses of frivolity.
The intervention in this bitter debate by ex-minister
Sabina Frederic
is enough as proof .
As if he were sitting after a meal ,
he said "It would be super interesting for Messi to collaborate with a disarmament plan in Rosario.
"
a position that must also be "super interesting" "Re", as the boys say.
Guns don't move crime
If the experiences in other countries that suffered from organized crime and arms proliferation are studied, and especially the experience of Southern Africa, in books such as "Governing Arms: The Southern African Experience", a compilation edited by Virginia Gamba in 2000 and published in Pretoria, lessons learned can be summed up where disarmament alone is not a strategy to eliminate crime.
A weapon is -in itself- a complex system made up of the weapon, its ammunition and the hand that uses it.
All three must be controlled, regulated and contained.
Organized crime is not driven by guns but by profit and the informal economy, which is what gives it power.
According to these experiences, firearms and the illegal proliferation of weapons cannot be controlled unless three things are done simultaneously: the handling (management), the resolution and the prevention of the (mis)use of firearms and of its illegal proliferation.
Only acting in a coordinated manner in the three areas can aspire to lower the level of armed violence in the countries.
It is, as the title of the book says, a matter of good governance.
And the Pope piles them up
Another appointment for handsome.
Alberto Fernández is invited, along with the government leadership, to the mass in Luján for the 15th anniversary of the creation of the Hogares de Cristo.
The then Archbishop Jorge Bergoglio encouraged them to care for young drug victims.
The invitations are borne by Father Pepe under the motto "We have to ensure that at some point the Pope can come to Argentina." He promises to summon 10,000 leaders from all over the country committed to that cause.
On the same day, a group from the ruling party
attempted a riot in Avellaneda to launch Cristina as a candidate.
It is also the 50th anniversary of Cámpora's triumph in 1973. Fernandez prefers to go to Luján, where Cristina is also invited.
It is manna for the Christian-dependent press, which exists in both militancy.
Francisco has let his delegates in Argentina know that the anniversary of the 10th anniversary of the Papacy, which falls on Monday, March 13, does not interest him much.
.
He even seems somewhat disgusted by what is being done and published by third-party initiatives.
He fears that his teaching will be trivialized.
On Sunday the 12th, also in Luján, Archbishops Oscar Ojea (of San Isidro and president of the Episcopal Conference) and Víctor Fernández (of La Plata and Bergoglio's highest reference among the bishops), will hold a concelebration in the basilica.
And the president is invited, but there are already too many invitations.