A Russian sociologist is "shocked by the level of support" for the Ukraine war.
For a political change he sees black.
Moscow – The attitude of his compatriots to Russia's attack on Ukraine shocks and frustrates Lev Gudkov.
"I expected a much sharper and more negative public reaction to the declaration of war," the sociologist told the Polish magazine
Novaya Polsha
in an interview.
Russian society is even "more degenerate, subservient and passive" than he himself believed.
The sociologist heads the Levada Center based in Moscow - the only public opinion research institute in Russia that is independent of the state.
Here he conducts a monthly survey of the mood of the Russian population regarding the Ukraine war.
Since it began in February 2022, "the picture has been pretty much the same: the level of support for the war is 70 to 75 percent." Only a small part of around ten to twelve percent of the people in Russia are firmly opposed to Vladimir's regime Putin and against the war.
Russia: Opinion on Ukraine war shockingly positive
Results of opinion polls inside Russia are partially dismissed due to the repressive regime.
People are afraid to tell the truth and the polls give the wrong picture, so the assumption.
But Gudkow sees the situation differently – and far more pessimistically: the number of those who are against the war is actually “vanishingly small”.
He considers not acknowledging this reality to be “ostrich politics” and “the worst form of intellectual cowardice”.
You have to have the courage to see reality and understand what to do next, he said.
That people would not tell the truth in opinion polls out of fear was "nonsense".
In fact, they also make very critical statements, even if they were recorded.
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Russian sociologist Lev Gudkov is "shocked by the level of support" for the Ukraine war in his country.
(archive image)
© Imago/Horst Galuschka
Rather, the problem is the state of Russian society: "The main characteristics are a mixture of apathy, opportunism, great cynicism - and the expectation that the war will be over - and life will go on as before," says Gudkov.
In principle one could speak of an "amoral state of society".
"An inability to look at yourself soberly and to resist a repressive regime."
Russia in the Ukraine War: Losses have no effect on approval
According to sociologist Gudkov, there are simple reasons why the enormous losses suffered by the Russian armed forces cannot change the widespread support for the Ukraine war within Russia.
The sheer lack of official information on the number of dead and wounded is to blame.
The Russian Ministry of Defense published the number of casualties “only two or three times”.
And as is well known, this is still “greatly underestimated”.
"This topic is subject to total censorship," said Gudkow.
And information that comes about relatives and friends of the fallen remains diffuse.
"There is no complete picture of the extent of the victims and losses," reports the sociologist.
To do this, you have to use foreign sources – but there is a lot of mistrust about them.
In addition, more than 20,000 websites are blocked by the censorship.
It is possible to find them via detours.
But then fines and arrests threatened.
"So the effect of the losses is not very high."
"I'm constantly being reprimanded for my pessimism," Gudkov told
Novaya Polsha
.
But it was based on the data collected.
A "feeling of impending war defeat" is already spreading in the country.
And the defeat in the war will be a "hard blow" that will undermine the legitimacy of the regime and especially of Putin.
However, he does not expect radical changes in Russian society.
Putin: Russia's defeat in the Ukraine war will be the end
In the political landscape of Russia there is neither a significant opposition nor a suitable successor due to Putin's repressive regime.
After Putin's departure, there will probably be a bitter struggle for power among Russia's elite.
"But that doesn't mean that the prospect of democracy is opening up," Gudkov said.
He draws a sober conclusion: “We Russian sociologists are in a certain sense pathologists of a failed or dead democracy.
(…) The only thing left for us is to make a diagnosis and find out what caused the patient to die.”
The 76-year-old is also pessimistic about the continuation of his institute: "As soon as we start to show a drop in approval ratings for Putin, we will be eaten and eliminated - but at the moment it seems to be in the interest of the authorities that even the opposition Levada center shows unanimous support for the war and for Putin.” (na)