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Retreat from Bachmut? What consequences that would have for the war - and for Russia's offensive

2023-03-07T13:32:25.456Z


Russia continues its attacks on the surrounding city of Bakhmut in the Ukraine war. The city belongs to the second line of defense.


Russia continues its attacks on the surrounding city of Bakhmut in the Ukraine war.

The city belongs to the second line of defense.

Bakhmut - What will be the consequences if Ukraine loses Bakhmut?

In any case, Russia is continuing its attacks in the region and the surrounding cities.

On Sunday alone, the Ukrainian armed forces had to fend off almost 100 attacks, the general staff said.

There have also been attacks on the town of Soledar, north-east of Bakhmut.

The Kremlin was able to take Soledar two months ago.

In conquering Wagner, however, the Russian private army had to sacrifice tens of thousands of newly recruited and untrained fighters.

"Today, fighting in Donbass is concentrated in metropolitan areas," Kiev analyst Alexey Kushch told

Al Jazeera

.

In the past few weeks, Moscow has overestimated its capabilities and has tried to advance in five directions along the 1,200-kilometer front line, according to Ukraine's top military expert.

Ukraine's withdrawal from Bakhmut: That would affect the war against Russia

"Your efforts are few and far between," Lt. Gen. Ihor Romanenko, a former deputy chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces General Staff, told

Al Jazeera

.

The Russians would try desperately to capture the cities of Kreminna, 75 kilometers north of Bakhmut, and Wuhledar, 150 kilometers south of it.

However, the Kiev forces only have a few more weeks to hold out as they anticipate the arrival of sophisticated Western weaponry, including the advanced Leopard tanks.

"And after stopping their advance and forming our strategic reserves - taking into account these weapons and trained military units - we can talk about conducting a counteroffensive," Romanenko said.

Pictures of the Ukraine war: great horror and small moments of happiness

Pictures of the Ukraine war: great horror and small moments of happiness

Ukraine War: Withdrawal from Bakhmut would not be a catastrophic decision

However, should Ukraine decide to withdraw its forces from the nearly encircled Bakhmut, it would by no means be a disastrous decision.

The city remains important as the center of the second line of defense of Ukrainian forces in the Donbass, says Nikolai Alexandrovich Mitrokhin, a historian at the German University of Bremen.

"But after the loss of Soledar and the virtual encirclement of Bakhmut from three and a half out of four sides, their importance has decreased significantly," he told

Al Jazeera

.

"So his loss will have little effect on the war," he said.

Russia would have few obstacles to overcome before storming Toretsk

That means, however, that Russian forces will face no serious obstacles before storming Ukraine's third line of defense, the Toretsk conurbation, which stretches nearly 100 kilometers west of Bakhmut.

But at their current pace -- given resistance from Ukrainian forces and spring weather with wet and often rough ground -- the Russians won't be able to lay siege to Chasiv Yar for the next few weeks, Mitrokhin said.

However, they will hardly reach the outskirts of Kostyantynivka and Kramatorsk, two strategic cities just 27 kilometers and 55 kilometers west of Bakhmut, respectively, before mid-May, he said.

+

Ukrainian soldiers from a tank brigade near the Bakhmut front.

(archive photo)

© Adrien Vautier/Imago

It could take Russia a year to storm Ukraine's third line of defense

"And it will take them a year or more to storm the third line of defense" along the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which includes hundreds of heavily fortified installations and a maze of trenches and shelters, he said.

Western military officials are also of the opinion that the withdrawal from Bakhmut will not affect the outcome of the Ukraine war.

"I think it has symbolic value rather than strategic and operational value," US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said Monday.

"The fall of Bakhmut does not necessarily mean that the Russians have turned the tide in this fight." (mse)

List of rubrics: © Adrien Vautier/Imago

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2023-03-07

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