Taiwan fears becoming the next Ukraine: "You have to prepare for the worst scenario"

Asian and European faces mix at the rally, a myriad of blue and yellow flags and masks are seen, and a stall offers patches to sew on clothing with the interlocking insignia of Taiwan and Ukraine.

One year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and on this self-governing island, which China considers an inalienable part of its territory and to which the United States helps militarily, many draw parallels between what it is like to live in the shadow of two giants.

“We are like two candles in a very dark room!” proclaims Miao Poya, a Taiwanese politician and activist, a Taipei councilor for the Social Democratic Party, who has just taken the stage.

"With our sacrifices we want to illuminate democracy and freedom in the world!"

The demonstration takes place on Saturday, February 25, coinciding with the course of the first 365 days of a war that has recovered the idea of ​​the great global blocs, and whose echoes resonate in this Asian region.

The congregation is not too large - about 200 people - but the mixture of features, colors, languages ​​and flags has a high symbolic charge.

"What we need is a little help from our friends," continues the Miao policy in its parallelism with Ukraine.

"Give us some fuel so we can keep sacrificing and shine for the whole world."

The event takes place in Freedom Square, one of the best known in Taipei, under the enormous oriental-style door from which, in the background, the commemorative hall of the dictator Chiang Kai-shek can be seen.

Chiang was the leader of the nationalist side who took refuge in 1949 on the island of Formosa (Taiwan) after being defeated by Mao Zedong's communists in the Chinese civil war.

In this territory, the defeated founded their own government, which they called the Republic of China.

Today, the enclave has been transformed into a democracy of 23 million inhabitants, with its own currency and army, but without recognition as a State by the vast majority of the international community.

This unresolved heritage has also made it one of the most volatile points on the planet and the tangible expression of the struggle between the two global superpowers: any spark can blow up decades of diplomatic balances and ambiguities between Washington ― that it has never officially defined whether or not it would defend the island in the event of a conflict, but it does supply it with weapons― and Beijing ―that seeks a peaceful reunification, but reserves the use of force as a “last resort” under “circumstances pressing"

The turbulent triangular relationship intensified during the summer with the visit to Taipei of the then speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi.

The trip angered the Chinese government, which responded with military exercises around Taiwan of an unknown magnitude.

A barrage of missiles flew over the island.

The current speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, has agreed to meet with the president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, in California instead of on the island, to appease the anger of the Chinese authorities, according to the Financial Times

exit box

Tension has been entrenched here for more than seven decades, but the invasion orchestrated by Russian President Vladimir Putin has stirred the earth and caused some on the island to look in the mirror of Ukraine: wars are not a thing of past and, at any time, the story can rewind and bring you back to square one.

A poll published in October found that 83.3% of Taiwanese agreed with the following statement: “The most important lesson that the war in Ukraine has for national defense education is that you must fight to save your own country”, according to what the official Taiwanese news agency CNA published at the time.

In January, a US general claimed in a leaked report that his "gut gut" told him that conflict could happen in the Taiwan Straits as soon as 2025 (the Pentagon denies this is an official position).

“I think the war with China is going to happen,” says Private Lee at the rally.

"It will be maybe in two or three years."

This 35-year-old Taiwanese has attended the meeting dressed in camouflage and with a military cap.

He served four years in the island's army, is a reservist and, according to his account, has spent almost eight months on the Ukrainian front as an expert in drone piloting in an infantry company stationed in the Ukrainian town of Kharkov.

He plans to return.

A handful of Taiwanese have made the same trip with the intention of helping out with the rifle while gaining experience on the battlefield.

One of them died in November.

"The situation between Ukraine and Russia and between China and Taiwan is the same," says soldier Lee, who believes that the island, however, is not prepared in terms of defense: it needs to resemble a NATO army, he believes, working closely with American and Japanese soldiers, more weapons, more training, and learning how to manage different units in different languages.

Next to Private Lee there are two other volunteers who have dropped by the concentration.

Lu Tzu Hao, 34, shows an image of himself in front with a missile launcher on his shoulder.

The conflict in the straits, says Lu, is "likely" because Chinese President Xi Jinping "thinks it is easy to take Taiwan, like Putin."

But Ukraine, he adds, has shown them something: "We are weak, but we can beat a strong country with the support of the rest of the world."

"We have not had war experience in a long time," adds Chuang Yu-wei, 52, another veteran, at his side.

Although he concludes: "If we are prepared, they will not invade us."

After the scuffle over Pelosi's visit, Washington has given a boost to arms sales to Taiwan and has recently decided to increase the number of US military advisers deployed on the island, according to The Wall Street Journal

Taipei, meanwhile, has increased conscription from four months to a year and is also considering increasing the number of troops sent to the United States to train alongside American soldiers.

Beijing, from the other shore, views the evolution with concern.

in recent years

, of supporting separatist forces and of violating the "one China" policy, by which Washington recognizes Beijing as the legitimate government of the country and does not maintains official diplomatic relations with Taiwan (like most countries).

"They are increasing the sale of arms and collaborating in military provocations," denounced a document published by Beijing after Pelosi's trip.

Taiwanese soldiers during exercises at the Taoyuan military base on February 21.

RITCHIE B. TONGO (EFE)

The storm seemed to dissipate in November with the thaw between presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping at the G-20 in Bali.

But the recent crisis of the Chinese balloons flying over the United States has left the seams of some battered relations in the air.

Mao Ning, a spokesman for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, accused Washington of touting the idea of ​​“Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow” and warned Washington of the “serious consequences” of continuing down the same path.

At the demonstration in Taipei, the Ukrainian anthem plays and some citizens of the invaded country cry.

During the minute of silence some distant drums with Asian echoes sneak in.

Then speakers – Taiwanese and Ukrainian – take the stage and denounce the “unprovoked and unjustified large-scale invasion”, “massacres” and “torture”, and an invisible line runs from Taipei to Kiev.

“We are both facing powerful and aggressive neighbors with territorial ambitions”, deepens Peifen Hsieh, director of International Affairs of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which has governed Taiwan since 2016, of a China-skeptic

.

Peifen has just given a speech and now comments on the lessons that she can draw from the conflict in Ukraine: "We do not want any war, but we must prepare for the worst scenario."

“We will not bow to the abuse of an authoritarian regime,” she adds.

Another of the speakers is Yurii Poita, a Ukrainian analyst who is an expert on China and its influence in the post-Soviet space.

After the outbreak of the war he has traveled to Taipei, where he has been awarded a position at the National Defense and Security Research Institute.

From the stage, he thanks Taiwan, the world's leading semiconductor producer, for stopping supplying advanced chips to Russia.

Poita, also a member of the MERICS institute for studies on China, based in Berlin, and the Center for Studies on Conversion and Disarmament of the Army, in Kiev, says that he has held meetings with Taiwanese military commanders.

Officials show interest in Ukraine's asymmetric defense organization and the Western-supplied anti-aircraft missile systems and anti-tank weapons that have turned the fight around (some have already been purchased by Taipei).

Also, she says, they are intrigued by how to harness that unpredictability factor: "Taiwan is interested in how to raise and maintain the morale of the armed forces, one of Ukraine's advantages," she concludes.

"They want to understand why their military doesn't give up, why they fight so fiercely on the battlefield."

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