The
ballotage
, it is presumed, will be the last of three steps that will define the next president.
And although the pre-candidates for the initial step, the primaries, are not even confirmed, a
new survey
has already come out to measure the final heads-up.
The firm chose (and faced) four members of the crack:
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta
and
Patricia Bullrich
, in the corner of Together for Change;
versus
Sergio Massa
and
Axel Kicillof
, in the Frente de Todos.
With different percentages and a high level of undecided,
the opponents always prevailed
.
The study that evaluated these scenarios is from
IPD (Innovation, Policy and Development)
, a consultancy created in 2013 and whose clients are leaders and administrations in La Pampa, Misiones and Corrientes.
He also made some specific measurements for the national and Buenos Aires governments.
This survey, in fact, circulates in the Uspallata offices of the City.
There is concern about Bullrich's growth.
Between February 14 and 17, the pollster carried out a national survey of
1,004 cases
with +/- 2.5% margin of error.
And she not only evaluated
four presidential runoff scenarios
.
She also measured
three PASS settings
and
four for the overall
.
In addition to a classic weighting by space, which she ended up like this:
Together for Change: 31%.
Front of All: 27%.
Libertarians: 18%.
Non-K Peronism: 7%.
Left Front: 5%.
Other: 3%.
Don't know/Don't answer: 9%.
The fight for the PASO
IPD
polled
three primary tables, varying the supply of the two poles of the crack.
With and without Cristina Kirchner
in the ruling party.
With and without Elisa Carrió
in the main opposition space.
If the pre-candidates are taken individually, the former president, Larreta, Bullrich and Milei appear very even, in the range of 15 to 18 points
.
Within the internal ones come the nuances.
In
Together for Change
, in all three scenarios,
the head of government narrowly beats the former Minister of Security
: 16% to 15% on two occasions, 18% to 16% on the third.
When Carrió and Manes are added, they add clearly lower supports and are far from the main fight: between 3% and 5%.
In the
Front of All
,
when Cristina is there, there is nothing to give her
: 17% against less than 10% for Massa and Alberto Fernández.
When the vice is replaced by Axel Kicillof, the bid is much more even.
In the total, anyway, the ruling party is always below JxC.
The third in contention is Javier Milei, who in the PASO oscillates between 16% and 18%
.
The rest completes far away: the left, with Nicolás del Caño and Myriam Bregman;
and the non-K Peronism, with Juan Schiaretti and Juan Manuel Urtubey, finish with about 3 points each.
The fight for the general
The
biggest surprises appear in the polls for the first round
, the general election.
Because the supremacy that Juntos por el Cambio shows as space and in the sum of the STEP, and the difference that they in turn take from Milei, are diluted in this instance.
And the conclusion of the study is that almost any of the representatives of these three main spaces could reach the ballot.
Or what is worse: stay outside.
Four hypotheses
are evaluated
, with these results:
Stage 1
: Horacio R. Larreta (JxC) 32%, Javier Milei (Lib) 28% and Axel Kicillof (FdT) 25%.
Stage 2
: Horacio R. Larreta (JxC) 29%, Javier Milei (Lib) 27% and Sergio Massa (FdT) 26%.
Stage 3
: Javier Milei (Lib) 28%, Patricia Bullrich (JxC) 27% and Sergio Massa (FdT) 25%.
Stage 4
: Patricia Bullrich (JxC) 27%, Javier Milei (Lib) 25% and Axel Kicillof (FdT) 25%.
If you take into account the margin of error and the number of undecided, in almost all cases it is a triple technical draw.
The fight for the ballot
About the end comes what was announced at the beginning of the note.
Ballot
measurements
.
For which a particularity is given: there are many indications that this instance will be reached, but also many doubts as to who will do it.
In the IPD
publication
, for example,
Milei is not included
, despite the fact that the libertarian economist appears with chances according to the data for an eventual first round.
In this case, the survey is limited to measuring four hypotheses, with two representatives from Together for Change and two from the Frente de Todos. The opposition always prevails: with these results.
Ballotage 1
: Patricia Bullrich (JxC) 43%, Axel Kicillof (FdT) 31% and DK/Nc 26%.
Run-off 2
: Horacio R. Larreta (JxC) 44%, Axel Kicillof (FdT) 33% and DK/Nc 23%.
Roundup 3
: Horacio R. Larreta (JxC) 42%, Sergio Massa (FdT) 36% and DK/Nc 22%.
Roundup 4
: Patricia Bullrich (JxC) 38%, Sergio Massa (FdT) 36% and DK/Nc 26%.
look too
New survey in the province of Buenos Aires with very hard data for Cristina Kirchner
A new survey measured PASO for the presidential election: without Cristina, very striking results
