Ukraine needs shells, and weapons manufacturers want money. Enter the EU.

BRUSSELS - Ukraine is so desperate for ammunition that it fires far fewer artillery shells than it otherwise would, according to its defense minister.

But it is still spending more shells than the West can produce or supply, and making more shells is expensive.

Ukrainian soldiers firing a howitzer in Donbas.

Russia is also facing ammunition shortages.

Photo .Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

For arms manufacturers to increase production and build new factories, they need

with guaranteed money, and those factories can take two or three years or more to come online.

Hoping to resolve these issues, European Union defense ministers will meet in Stockholm on Wednesday to discuss proposals to use

to order and purchase up to one million shells for Ukraine, at an estimated cost of

This is an approach that the President of the European Commission,

, compares with the one used by Europe to obtain vaccines at an early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic:

pool resources to offer more money up front and encourage manufacturers "to invest now in new production lines" of the "standardized products that Ukraine desperately needs."

With that idea in mind, Estonian Prime Minister

, with the support of van der Leyen and EU foreign policy officer

, made her ambitious proposal to buy up to one million shells for Ukraine.

Ukrainian soldiers in the Donbas region last month.

The United States is trying to increase its production of shells to make up for deficits caused by the war and build up reserves.

Photo Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

In addition, Borrell has proposed spending

in the coming months to help reimburse countries that donate artillery ammunition to Ukraine, while also pushing Member States to place new joint orders to replenish

, that are running out precariously.

Jens Stoltenberg

, NATO Secretary General, has told its member countries not to worry too much about reducing their own reserves for now, despite NATO's formal requirements, as they could replenish them later.

But it warned last month that "the lead time for large-calibre ammunition has increased from

. "

Initially, Ukraine's challenge was to find enough Soviet-era ammunition to satisfy its antiquated stockpile.

But European countries have recently been sending modern Western weapons to Ukraine.

These require a projectile of a

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, arguing that his efforts to contain ongoing Russian attacks in Donbass are being hampered by a lack of ammunition, told his EU counterparts in a recent letter obtained by The Financial Times

, at a minimum, Kiev needed

artillery shells a month.

He also claimed that his forces were only firing about

, a fifth of the shells they would normally use.

But a senior European official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said the 12 companies in 10 EU countries that make such artillery shells can only produce 650,000 a year, and that includes other types of

. that are in short supply, such as the 120mm shells needed for the German Leopard 2 tanks and the 105mm shells needed for the older Leopard 1 tanks.

The United States has already sent about 1 million 155mm artillery shells from its stockpiles to Ukraine and is partly replenishing them with purchases from South Korea, which refuses to sell directly to Ukraine.

But the United States also does not make many 155mm shells and tries to increase its production.

It is increasing its output from about 14,400 shells a month to 20,000 this spring, with plans to make 90,000 shells a month by 2025.

 Needs

All of those numbers pale in comparison to Ukraine's needs, not to mention the number of projectiles Russia fires at Ukraine, estimated at

though sometimes doubling, according to Borrell.

Russia

is also facing ammunition shortages, and its ammunition factories are working at full steam.

But it has also reduced the number of projectiles it fires.

Last summer, in the Donbas region, the Russians were firing 40,000 to 50,000 artillery shells a day, while the Ukrainians were firing 6,000 to 7,000 a day.

Ukraine also needs ammunition for its fleet of Soviet-era T-72 tanks, which Western companies do not make.

François Heisbourg, a French defense analyst, praised the idea of ​​the joint purchase but warned that even if the money does come through, Ukraine or its Western suppliers might not

they need soon enough.

"It's not coming fast enough, but it's coming," Heisbourg said.

"It's not a question of resources or money. The 1,000 million euros are not the problem, it's getting those factories up and running, and that takes time."

Christian Mölling, director of the Center for Security and Defense at the German Council on Foreign Relations, is also concerned that the EU bureaucracy, despite the shared urgency, could slow down the process.

It would be much better and faster, he said, to give the Ukrainians the money and tell them to order the ammunition they need directly, instead of going through Brussels.

"The EU should do what it does best, give money, and not get involved in the bureaucracy of ammunition procurement," he said.

By now, the Ukrainians already know what they need and what works best with each weapon, Mölling said.

Ammunition is not the only problem, given the need for spare parts, maintenance and trained personnel, the same requirements that will follow the supply of complicated Western tanks to Ukraine.

"It has to be an

," he said.

The European Union and member states could also help, he suggested, by removing political restrictions that complicate the situation, such as export licenses for arms shipments to Ukraine, which are intended to prevent weapons from falling into the wrong hands, and weather regulations. and of another type on the production of ammunition.

It could push bankers to invest in arms factories, which some banks are boycotting under pressure from shareholders, some of whom do not want to profit from arms.

And NATO could relax certification regulations on the use of certain projectiles for certain weapons.

For example, he said, it is against German law to fire uncertified shells from German howitzers.

These regulations are intended for safety, but can also benefit manufacturers who produce projectiles to sell for weapons they also make, similar to printer cartridges for specific printers.

Camille Grand, former NATO assistant secretary general for defense investment, said NATO estimated that 80% of 155mm shells could be fired from

, despite restrictive certifications.

Increasing production by 50% would be easy, he said, with more work shifts, although there are sometimes supply issues for key ingredients.

But increasing production by 300% would require huge investments in new plants.

The supply of ammunition, especially 155mm shells, "is the most urgent issue," Borrell told EU foreign ministers late last month.

"If we fail in that, the outcome of the war is in jeopardy."

c.2023 The New York Times Company

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