Mexico and the United States are facing off in a second trade dispute, over the ban on transgenic corn, increasing uncertainty for the private sector in the Latin American country.
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador assures that his country has the right to limit imports of the crop to protect its biodiversity, while the Government of Joe Biden insists that the ban is in violation of the trade agreement between countries, the TMEC.
Those affected could be farmers.
On Monday, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) formalized a request to consult with Mexico on a partial ban that Mexico imposed in February.
By means of a decree, Mexico prohibited the importation of genetically modified corn for human consumption, including the production of the mainstay of Mexican gastronomy, the tortilla.
Mexico imports about 3,000 million dollars a year of grain, but the impact on the agricultural sector, in the event that Mexico loses the dispute, could be between 5,000 and 6,000 million dollars, estimates Juan Carlos Baker, one of the TMEC negotiators. .
“And if you add both consultation processes together, you are talking about several billion dollars in possible losses for Mexico,” says Baker, who was Undersecretary of Foreign Trade under the previous federal Administration.
"I see that the positions here are very difficult to reconcile."
The process that began on Monday is the second that the US has opened with Mexico, after the White House accused López Obrador in July of violating the trade agreement by limiting permits and investment by private companies to favor state companies.
In that case, too, specialists warned that it would be the farmers who could be affected.
This is because, if the countries do not reach an agreement in the consultations, they will have to resort to an independent panel.
If the panel rules against Mexico in the case of the energy sector, the US could impose tariffs on the agricultural sector, which depends largely on the US market.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, trade between the two countries grew 13% last year, totaling 73,000 million dollars.
Under the TMEC rules, Baker explains, the penalty for Mexico would be relative to the private investments that have been affected, which are estimated at close to 10,000 million dollars and could focus on the agricultural sector.
"Hopefully it doesn't go to panel because it certainly wouldn't be beneficial to anyone," says Baker.
The TMEC allows member countries to impose measures to protect the health of their citizens, as long as they have scientific support for it.
This is why the US has argued that Mexico's position is not based on scientific knowledge, since no major impact on health or biodiversity has been found due to transgenic crops.
For its part, Mexico has said that the US's motivations are political, not commercial, so the country should be able to impose its ban.
“I feel that there has been a dismissal from the Ministry of Economy of the US arguments, and the US thinks the opposite, that their position is imbued with ideology”, says Baker, “the technical processes for this are and if this continues the possibility before they reach a panel, it will exist and it will be very high”.
On Tuesday, in response to the consultations initiated by the US, the National Agricultural Council, which brings together companies in the sector, said: "Complementarity and commercial exchange in North America is of the utmost importance for food security in the region.
Together, Canada.
The United States and Mexico will continue to build an agri-food sector
stronger that helps to overcome the challenges of the future”.
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