François-Joseph Schichan is a former diplomat, consultant in geopolitics and European affairs at the consulting firm Flint Global.
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- The British government presented a bill against illegal immigration on Tuesday March 7 which plans to prohibit those arriving by the Channel from seeking asylum in the United Kingdom.
With more than 45,000 arrivals by this route last year, was it inevitable?
Francois-Joseph SCHICHAN. -
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's government is under pressure.
The situation in the English Channel has spiraled out of control with a sharp increase in illegal crossings in recent years, which adds to the rest of the immigration figures which have risen sharply in recent years with over a million legal entries in 2021 and 2022. The issue of illegal Channel crossings has become a symbol of this loss of control.
This situation is in total contradiction with the promise of Brexit to control borders and migratory flows.
It is therefore urgent to find solutions, but none of the previous Conservative governments succeeded in doing so.
The response offered by the British government is strong.
It consists of depriving migrants of any outlet for the right of asylum if they enter the United Kingdom illegally – except in very specific cases such as minors or seriously ill people.
Those who cross the Channel illegally will be detained in the UK pending transfer to their country of origin or to Rwanda, with which the UK has an agreement for the detention of illegal migrants, pending their transfer to Rwanda. study their asylum application.
It is simply a question of dissuading illegal migrants and smuggling networks from attempting the dangerous crossing of the Channel.
Should we see a reversal of Rishi Sunak, known for his liberalism, on the migration issue?
It should not be forgotten that Rishi Sunak campaigned for Brexit in the 2016 referendum. He knows that the issue of immigration was at the heart of the Brexit vote.
This is again to show that Brexit has made it possible to regain control of the British borders.
The credibility of the Conservative Party is at stake.
The bill goes in that direction.
If the migrants helped by the networks of smugglers manage to reach the French coasts to attempt the crossing to England, it is firstly because the Schengen area is a sieve.
Francois-Joseph Schichan
Politically, Rishi Sunak is putting his parliamentary majority up against the wall.
Many Conservative MPs are protesting against measures deemed excessive, but which are the only ones capable of curbing the situation in the Channel.
Will these deputies risk putting the Prime Minister in difficulty one year before the legislative elections?
I doubt.
Read alsoUnited Kingdom: the number of pending asylum applications at its highest
Even Labor leader Keir Starmer is calling for action on illegal immigration – he too knows pro-Brexit voters in northern England are concerned about the issue.
If he wants to win back this electorate after the terrible failure of the 2019 elections, he must therefore change his positions, even if he is criticized by his own party.
The migration issue will be central during the campaign for the 2024 legislative elections.
What consequences could this law have on migration to France?
It is a bill which can have a positive effect on certain migratory flows towards France, insofar as it makes the United Kingdom less attractive.
We must not forget that even if the famous “Calais jungle” was dismantled 20 years ago, in reality the migrants have spread all over the French Channel coast and their numbers have increased.
And we have again observed, in recent years, a significant increase in the concentration of illegal migrants in Calais.
So the problem was never really solved, it was diluted.
The British bill will therefore help to reduce the pressure.
In the short term, however, we can expect an upsurge in arrivals to reach England before the new law takes effect.
British and European justice will therefore play a major role in the government's ability to implement the measures envisaged.
Francois-Joseph Schichan
In the medium and long term, this law will not solve the basic problem even if it is correctly applied – which remains to be seen because the challenges are immense, for example on secure accommodation places.
If the migrants helped by the networks of smugglers manage to reach the French coasts to attempt the crossing to England, it is firstly because the Schengen area is a real sieve.
As long as the borders of the Schengen area are not reinforced to effectively repel illegal migrants, we can expect that the pressure will remain strong on the French coasts.
The United Kingdom passed a law last year to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda but the project has been blocked by European justice and remains at a standstill. Can we expect this scenario to repeat itself?
The new British bill will indeed be the subject of strong opposition in parliament and before the courts – British and European – as was the case with the agreement with Rwanda.
The government is aware of this.
He himself also acknowledged that the compatibility of the law with certain legal commitments of the United Kingdom was not guaranteed and that it would be up to the courts to decide.
British and European justice will therefore play a major role in the government's ability to implement the measures envisaged.
The fight against smugglers has made significant progress in recent years and this is to the credit of the French and British police.
It must be strengthened.
Francois-Joseph Schichan
Opponents of the bill who believe it is contrary to international law and the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), however, are playing with fire.
The level of public concern over immigration has declined since Brexit, but this decline stopped in 2022 with the release of staggering immigration figures.
The British, and especially those who voted for Brexit, are realizing that the promise to regain control of the borders has not been kept.
This is a fundamental question for the Conservative Party and its electorate.
Voices are already being expressed within the government and the conservative majority to leave the ECHR if necessary.
This bill comes as Rishi Sunak is expected in Paris on Friday to meet French President Emmanuel Macron. A few months ago, our two countries signed a cooperation agreement providing in particular for financial assistance from the British to monitor French beaches and the dispatch of British observers to the French side...
The subject will be at the heart of the agenda of discussions between Rishi Sunak and Emmanuel Macron during the Franco-British summit.
Rishi Sunak wants to get more from France on coastal protection, but Emmanuel Macron is unlikely to accept additional efforts.
The fact that the UK is paying France to provide border control is nothing new – tens of millions of euros have already been paid.
This situation is sometimes perceived as humiliating for our country, paid to ensure control of its own border.
This being said, the French position can be understood: if migrants accumulate on its shores, it is because the British immigration model is perceived as more favorable.
It is therefore necessary that the United Kingdom either assumes and accepts the
The only lasting solution is close cooperation and effort on both sides.
The fight against smugglers has made significant progress in recent years and this is to the credit of the French and British police.
It must be strengthened.
Both countries must also reduce incentives for illegal immigration, notably through social protection systems.
Finally, France must play an active role within the EU to strengthen the borders of the Schengen area and give the Frontex agency the means and the mandate to fight effectively against illegal immigration.
For the United Kingdom, France and the European Union, the challenge is the same: to regain control of our borders.
