European natural gas fell on Thursday, touching a new low since August 2021, despite colder temperatures, benefiting from a comfortable level of storage in Europe.
Oil, meanwhile, was trendless on Thursday, caught between hopes of a recovery in Chinese demand and worries about US growth, with the market expecting another rate hike from the US Federal Reserve ( fed).
Around 10:30 a.m. GMT (11:30 a.m. in Paris), the Dutch TTF futures contract, considered the European benchmark, traded at 41.16 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) shortly after approaching the 40 euro mark and hitting a new plus. low for almost 19 months, at 40.50 euros.
Despite below-average temperatures in most Western and Northern European countries, "
gas prices are relatively stable
", Energi Danmark analysts point out, thanks in particular to "
high storage levels as spring approaches
.
The exceptionally mild winter until then enabled the various European nations to preserve their gas reserves by reducing the demand for heating, the main source of gas consumption for individuals.
Good management of the energy crisis
“
The EU has handled the energy crisis exceptionally well
,” says Ole Hvalbye, an analyst at Seb.
According to the Seb group, Europe lost more than 1,000 terawatt hours (TWh) of natural gas imports from Russia compared to normal, before the war in Ukraine.
“
But with a bit of weather luck, big reductions in demand due to high natural gas prices and big increases in liquefied natural gas imports,” Europe managed to “correct course
by
+1,400 TWh
,” continues Hvalbye.
Enough to allow the Old Continent to go from gas reserves less filled than their usual level to reserves "
at +242 TWh above normal
", he adds.
Since early January, the European gas benchmark has already fallen by around 46%.
And compared to its last surge in August, caused by a supply disruption from Russia, the TTF has fallen by 88%.
On the oil side, a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in May took 0.11% to 82.75 dollars.
Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in April, dropped 0.09% to 76.73 dollars.
The prices of the two global benchmarks for black gold are caught between "
two macroeconomic drivers now out of tune
", notes Stephen Innes, analyst at SPI AM: on the one hand expectations of a recovery in demand from China, and on the other hand, the Fed's desire to continue raising rates to fight inflation.
According to the analyst, the reopening of the Chinese market is offset by the chill that a further Fed rate hike could cast on US growth, and therefore the consumption of crude oil in the world's largest economy.
"
Until China's economic data improves or the Fed becomes less aggressive, oil prices could struggle in the near term
," Innes said.
