Week after week, energy prices are falling in the European markets and offer good opportunities to stock up.
However, it is unlikely to be as cheap this year as it was before the crisis: Experts expect prices for gas, electricity and heating oil to rise.
Munich –
Electricity and gas
tariffs under the price brake, heating oil under one euro: Energy is as cheap as it was before the Ukraine war and offers consumers the opportunity to recover from the record prices in 2022.
But low prices and effective energy price brakes should not lull consumers into a sense of security: next winter is already being decided now.
gas
Gas prices currently only know one way: down.
A megawatt hour at the wholesale market now costs around 80 percent less than in September at just under 45 euros.
Tobias Federico, head of the consulting agency Energie-Brainpool, believes that, in view of the full gas storage facilities (around 70 percent), further falling prices are possible: "From a purely technical point of view, there is a lower limit of 40 euros per megawatt hour, these are the production and transport costs from the USA. However, many positive developments have already been priced in: “I think the downside potential is lower than the upside potential.”
But it is unlikely to be as bad as 2022: "If we leave the heating period with a fill level of 60 percentage points, I do not think that we will see extreme prices." He expects this year for medium to long-term contracts, relevant for consumer tariffs a level between 40 and 60 euros.
Meanwhile, Ciaran Roe, chief analyst for LNG at news service S&P Global, believes that even with a normal winter, prices will rise significantly: “Our forecasts indicate that prices in the European TTF market will rise throughout the year and in the cold winter months 30 euros above today's prices of 45 to 50 euros per megawatt hour.” That would correspond to an increase of around 60 percent.
Roe explains: "This is due to both seasonal factors and the lack of additional LNG supply for the world market."
Despite the price-dampening effect of the new German terminals, it will remain more expensive in Europe than in the important competitor region Japan-Korea: "Lower prices are expected here on the derivatives market than on the European TTF market at least until 2028."
As early as 2022, European importers had to offer competitive prices to outperform the East Asian competition.
Tobias Federico: "We have three uncertainties for the winter: the economic recovery in Asia, their winter and ours." In addition to the technical lower limit of 40 euros per megawatt hour, there is also a market economy based on East Asia.
Federico: "If the winters are cold in the northern hemisphere, I think a level of 80 euros will be normal in the coming years."
■ Tip for consumers
Some experts expect gas prices to rise again from the second half of the year at the latest.
According to the current situation, it would make sense to secure yourself against this with a contract with a price guarantee for the coming heating season.
Because the extension of the energy price brake beyond the turn of the year has not yet been decided.
From the spring of 2024, new LNG capacities could then reshuffle the cards on the world market.
There are currently working prices of just over eleven cents per kilowatt hour and thus under the price brake.
Further falling prices are possible, but there are also risks due to the rather volatile LNG market.
Electricity
Electricity prices are still largely dependent on gas prices: “In the next few years, medium to long-term prices will probably level off at 100 to 120 euros per megawatt hour.
There are currently 150, but that also has something to do with the high CO2 certificate prices and natural gas," explains Tobias Federico.
The gas question also superimposes influences such as the German nuclear phase-out in April: "I consider the shutdown of the nuclear power plants to be of little price relevance." Electricity is currently available for less than 36 cents per kilowatt hour, well below the price brake.
fuel oil
Global oil prices remain on a comparatively cheap plateau, since the beginning of February a barrel (159 liters) has never cost more than 87 dollars.
Gas oil prices, a precursor for heating oil and diesel, are also relatively low at the moment.
However, it seems that the European market is still drawing on reserves: According to the information service Insight Global, the Dutch ports were literally flooded with heating oil at the end of February, the warehouses are more full than they have been for two years: Accordingly, gas oil imports - a precursor for diesel and heating oil - increased - up for the fourth straight week, while heating oil shipments are up 10 percent this week.
According to the report, large quantities of heating oil came from Greece, among other places.
The Hellenes stocked up on Russian heating oil in January.
Since the beginning of February, diesel and heating oil have been sanctioned in addition to Russian crude oil.
European importers are currently stocking up to buffer the effects of the sanctions.
The bottom line is that the conditions for refinery products - and especially heating oil - are just about as favorable as possible.
In addition to the risk of dwindling stocks of refinery products, experts are concerned about the crude oil market: Russia wants to reduce its production in March and thus withdraw 0.5 percent of its capacity from the world market.
Added to this is the economic recovery in China.
The oil production association OPEC+ had already made it clear that it did not want to increase its production capacities.
All in all, analysts expect a price of between 95 and 100 dollars per barrel of crude oil over the course of the year, a good ten percent more than today.
. Tip for consumers
As the year progresses, European storage stocks, recovering demand in East Asia and the OPEC government's production restrictions suggest that prices will be above today's level.
Heating oil is currently available for 101 cents per liter.
In January they were still over EUR 1.20.
Speculations on lower prices are possible, but there is little evidence of such a development.
It can therefore be wise to refill the tanks at the end of the heating period.
heating pellets
In the slipstream of fossil fuels, the prices for wood pellets continued their downward trend.
A ton cost 500 euros a short time ago, but in Munich it is currently a good 332.
