A
new electoral survey
in the
province of Buenos Aires
confirmed two central data for the ruling party and brought a novelty that could alter the opposition camp.
On the one hand, in their respective STEP for president and governor,
Cristina Kirchner and Axel Kicillof devastated
.
On the other,
the media lawyer
Fernando Burlando
surprised
, who touched double digits for this second local dispute.
The study that provides this information is from the Social Observatory of the Secretary of Media and Communication of the
National University of La Matanza
, an entity politically linked to the Frente de Todos.
The poll carried out by
Clarín
this Friday included a survey in Buenos Aires territory (between February 25 and March 1) of
1,061 cases
.
The results were presented with +/- 3.08% margin of error.
Before entering the electoral chapter, the report presents other data on the political and economic situation:
- In a multiple-choice table (more than one option could be chosen),
inflation/food prices
(69.2%) and
insecurity/crime
(58.2%) were by far the
top concerns
of respondents. surveyed.
- The view on the
management of Alberto Fernández
is predominantly negative:
62.6% see it badly
against 34.1% who approve.
- The Minister of Economy,
Sergio Massa,
also ends with a balance against
, although less
: 53.7% think negatively about his work against 38.9% who value it.
Change or continuity and presidential STEP
The first statement about the upcoming elections does not refer to candidates, but to
spaces/models
.
Thus, when they ask people about how they prefer to continue in the next period,
52.5%
choose
"to change the government for an opposition space"
,
38.7%
say
"to continue the current space but with a new president /a"
and only
8.8%
opted for
"continuing the current space with the same president"
.
Telephone for Alberto Fernández.
Then, yes, come the questions linked to the STEP.
They start like this:
"If the elections for President were today, which of the following candidates would you be most willing to choose?"
.
And there two paths fork.
One, with Cristina and Mauricio Macri;
the second, without them.
In the first case, the weight of the vice in her space and particularly in this district is clear.
She alone adds the same as Macri, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich together: 27.5%
.
With this, she reaches him to destroy her inmate.
Far behind are
Fernández (4.3%)
,
Massa (3.4%)
,
Daniel Scioli (3%)
and
Gabriel Katopodis (0.5%)
, the Minister of Public Works who was conspicuously included in the survey.
"It is difficult to find leaders outside of the usual presidential candidates, and we wanted to test several who have different profiles and origins," they explained from the Observatory before the Clarín query
by
Katopodis.
Returning to the survey, the
total of the ruling party (38.7%)
is not so high
, especially with respect to the numbers of 2019.
As for
Together for Change
, it is relatively close (or not so far) from the FdT.
It reaches
32.4%
, but in a much more distributed scenario:
9.9%
for
Larreta, 9.4%
for
Bullrich
,
8.2%
for
Macri
,
3.6%
for
Facundo Manes
,
08%
for
Gerardo Morales
and
0 .5%
of
Elisa Carrió
.
The one who is not doing so well, compared to other polls, is Milei: she ends up with 10.3%
.
They complete: "a leftist candidate" 1.6%, Juan Schiaretti 1.1%, "blank/challenged" 3.8% and "I don't know" 12.2%.
In the
second proposal of PASO
in the Province for president, now
without Cristina or Macri
, there is a
slight drop in the ruling party
(it reaches about 34 points), but above all a
more dispersed
distribution
of the votes:
Fernández 13.2%
,
Massa 7 9%
,
Scioli 7.3%
,
Wado de Pedro 4.8%
,
Jorge Capitanich 0.4%
and
Katopodis 0.3%
.
In
Together for Change
, without Macri,
Larreta increased slightly over Bullrich (14% to 12.5%) , and
Manes (4.1%)
,
Morales (1%)
and
Carrió (0.9%)
closed below
.
The rest move little:
Milei 10.5%
, "left candidate" 2.9%, Schiaretti 0.7%, "white/Contested" 5.9% and "I don't know" 13.5%.
STEP for governor
In the case of the primaries for governor, in the Frente de Todos the preponderance of Kicillof
is also confirmed
, who has already made it clear that he wants a second term.
He reaches
29.8%
, against
3.5%
for
Martín Insaurralde
and
2.2%
for
Victoria Tolosa Paz
.
In this case, the total of the ruling party (35.5%) does leave it clearly above
Together for Change
.
The governor only takes almost 10 points from them, since the main opposition alliance barely exceeds 20%, with
Diego Santilli
at the top (as in the rest of the polls that were known so far): Larreta's former vice almost doubles
Cristian Ritondo
(12.5% to 6.7%) and very relegated ends the radical
Maximiliano Abad
(1.1%).
This decline in the opposition is explained by the double libertarian offer: on the one hand,
Burlando
(of a very high profile due to his role as complainant in the Báez Sosa case) repeats the
10 points
of his possible ally Milei;
on the other,
José Luis Espert
adds
6.8%
.
They complete: "leftist candidate" 1.8%, "white/Contested" 6.2% and "I don't know" 3.5%.
The question is precisely whether Espert, unlike 2021, will reach an agreement with JxC to get into that internship.
And if he succeeds: will those almost 7 points remain there or can they escape to the libertarian variant?
Another element to take (very) into account is that the presidential and gubernatorial elections go together and the
greatest drag
is made by the
national section
of the ballot.
look too
The least desired survey: who are the politicians with the worst image in the country
Surprise: a poll has already measured Larreta, Bullrich, Massa and Kicillof in a presidential ballot