'Quo vadis', Latin America?

Extraction of lithium in the Salar de Uyuni, in Bolivia.Noah Friedman-Rudovsky (Bloomberg)

At the end of last year, the Carolina Foundation published a report reviewing the different challenges facing Latin America, from economic uncertainty to political reconfiguration after years of protests.

The authors warned that attention to these emergencies has kept the countries of the region somewhat oblivious to the geopolitical reorganization: "Latin America is an absent actor, without an agenda or global projection."

Is there a chance to change this reality?

Historically, since the Monroe Doctrine (1823), normally synthesized in the maxim "America for the Americans", Latin America is spoken of as the "backyard of the United States", in a clear metaphorical allusion to the North American influence in the region.

However, in recent years, the commercial and political presence of other powers, especially China, has called into question the validity of this concept.

An illustrative graph from Statista shows that, in the last twenty years, China has succeeded in replacing the United States as the main supplier of goods to South America (Central America and Mexico are excluded here, where the United States still maintains its hegemony).

Since the beginning of the century, the exchange with the Asian power has gained a lot of volume, so much so that, in 2021,

The total value of trade between China and Latin America and the Caribbean reached 450,000 million dollars, which represented an increase of 41.1% compared to the previous year.

The region can no longer be thought of as a “backyard”, but rather as one of the many arenas where the United States and China compete in the framework of what Andrea Rizzi recently described as the “new cold war”.

Latin America, more precisely in the triangle formed by Argentina, Chile and Bolivia, concentrates around 60% of lithium reserves, a key resource for the future of global energy.

All studies predict a

in demand for the coming years.

Can this competitive advantage put the region back at the center of the international debate?

Are there reasons to think of a more or less coordinated strategy?

The pandemic revealed the regional inability to generate common responses.

This, as mentioned in the report

(CIDOB, ideograma and ISGlobal), made it so that, as a general rule, each country negotiated its vaccines bilaterally.

The integrationist efforts, which in their day gave shape to regional organizations, have been victims of the growing polarization, of a protectionist outbreak and, as Sanahuja said, of the urgent demands of domestic politics.

After the suspension of Unasur and the failed project of Prosur, Mercosur, which is soon to turn 32, is also being questioned by some of its members.

The latest election results in the region suggest a possible resurgence of regionalism, but not without challenges.

The most important, without a doubt, is the institutionalization of a transversal and long-term agenda that, at least, addresses the main concerns and opportunities that the region has.

The strategic place of Latin America for the aforementioned lithium, but also for the reserves of fresh water and oil, may be tempting to reach new trade agreements, but the region needs common agendas that include environmental and climate commitments, for example.

We are at the gates of a change of scenery in Latin American geopolitics, and in the successive elections, it is, to a large extent, this possible future of development that is put at stake.

Demanding definitions from the candidates and building consensus that achieve lasting State policies is the great objective, for their democracies and for the well-being of the most unequal region in the world.

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