"Today, the Ukrainians are paying a high price and protecting our freedom, of all of us. Therefore, we must do more to achieve victory as quickly as possible, and bury once and for all the imperialist ambitions of a sick country," said the Prime Minister of Lithuania, Ingrida Shimonita, yesterday (Saturday) In a speech to mark 33 years of independence from the Soviet Union.
On March 11, 1990, Lithuania became the first of the Soviet states to become independent from the collapsing bloc.
Today is called "Independence Renewal Day".
The enactment of the Independence Law was possible thanks to the first democratic parliamentary elections since World War II, held in February 1990 in Lithuania.
The elected government was the first non-communist government since the end of World War II.
The political upheaval in Lithuania, as well as in Latvia and Estonia, took place, in part, thanks to the strengthening of anti-Soviet sentiment throughout the Soviet bloc in the second half of the 1980s, and the re-emergence of independent tendencies.
"33 years ago, we determined with a clear voice our destiny - to live independently. We were the first to break out of the prison of the states - and we defended this right when it was attacked," President Gitanas Nausada said yesterday.
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Today, three decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the declaration of independence of various countries in the bloc, opposition to Moscow is growing stronger again, along with the renewed fear of its desire to re-establish a Soviet empire.
Even countries that are considered allies of Moscow are forced to reconsider the perception of Russia as a stable partner, after the violent February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Russia's aggression has failed in many ways;
Ukraine receives unprecedented aid from the US-led alliance;
In a historic move, Finland and Sweden have applied to join the military alliance NATO; and the West has imposed sanctions on Moscow and is working towards cutting off the European Union's dependence on Russian gas.
Finland and Sweden have applied to join NATO (Photo: Reuters)
The decision to invade Ukraine also affects the internal opposition to Russia, and is also evident in the politics of countries that were formerly part of the Soviet Union or its metastases.
In Georgia last week, we witnessed a good example of a domestic political move met with fierce opposition on the street, partly due to growing anti-Russian sentiment.
For two days, demonstrators took to the streets of the capital Tbilisi in protest of the "foreign agents" bill which, according to the opponents, would have harmed freedom of expression and the freedom of the press.
Beyond these noble goals, the demonstrators compared the bill to a similar law in Russia and claimed that it was "draconian" legislation. The signs they carried read "No to the Russian law!".
Others called out against the imperialism and autocracy that they claim are an integral part of Russian influence in the region.
The ruling party "Georgian Dream", which wanted to enact the law, aimed to strengthen its power over civil society in order to win the next elections.
However, the fact that it has close ties with Moscow was another reason for opposition among the citizens.
After two days of violent protests, the government announced that it had withdrawn the bill.
Demonstrations in Tbilisi, Georgia, against the Foreign Agents Law (Photo: Reuters)
Demonstrations in Tbilisi, Georgia, against the Foreign Agents Law (Photo: Reuters)
The proposed legislation in the country on the eastern coast of the Black Sea in the South Caucasus has also received widespread and international condemnation from its Western allies, including Brussels and Washington.
The EU said the law could jeopardize ties with Georgia.
Georgia has wanted to join the EU and NATO for years. The Georgian opposition claims that the ruling party is thwarting progress because it is under Moscow's influence. Georgia, like Ukraine in 2014, lost 20% of its territory in 2008 to pro-Russian separatists.
But Pro-Western sentiment is currently strong in the country that borders Russia. More than 80% of the Georgian people now support joining the Union, according to recent polls - and any comparison or similarity between Georgia and Russia seems to be viewed negatively and denounced by citizens who fear being caught in the dangerous web again Russia is fine.
On video: Exchange of fire on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border (Photo: Reuters)
Even among Russia's neighbors, whose political elites have developed a dependence on the security guarantees and others that Russia has offered them, and still cultivate nostalgia for the Soviet Union, a change has occurred due to the war in Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin acted as a mediator in 2020 between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the battle for Nagorno-Karabakh.
He received in return a military presence in the region.
Now that Russia's attention is on Ukraine, tensions are rising again in the region.
"Russia is distracted by the war in Ukraine, and in addition, it is also dealing with the fact that the invasion of Ukraine has failed," said Richard Giragosian, director of the Center for Regional Studies in the Armenian capital, Yerevan.
Armenia still depends on Russia for security, energy and trade, but according to him, relations between the two countries have become unpredictable in the past year.
"For Armenia, Russia is now seen as a much more serious challenge. It has become an unreliable partner and its security promises are meaningless," he told The Observer.
Maya Sandu, President of Moldova (Photo: Reuters)
In Moldova, President Maia Sandu warned that Russia was planning a coup in the government.
"The program includes sabotage and fighters disguised as civilians who spread violence, attack government buildings and take hostages," she said last month.
The media in Moldova reported that an attempt to assassinate the leader of the separatist region of Transnistria, which was supported by Russia, was under way.
It seems that since the war in Ukraine began, the security risks that Russia is now posing to its neighbors and allies are getting stronger, and there is a possibility that they will exceed the benefits that lie in accepting Moscow's conversions in the fields of energy, trade, and so on.
The countries understand that not only Ukraine is in danger from Putin's imperialist ambitions.
On video: Putin arrives in Tajikistan on his first visit since the start of the war in Ukraine (Photo: Reuters)
In Central Asia, where some of the most loyal partners are located, the war in Ukraine has also changed Russia's image.
If before, Russia seemed stable, now it is perceived as unpredictable and no longer serves as a role model to be followed.
They are even trying to take advantage of Russia's poor economic situation due to the sanctions, in order to profit for themselves.
Putin is not blind to all these changes.
He visited Central Asian countries and held more than 50 meetings with leaders last year, well aware that they are almost the only ones still willing to cooperate with him.
The military intelligence in Lithuania estimated that Russia has enough resources to continue the war in Ukraine for two more years at the current intensity.
If this assessment comes true, the world may witness a decline in Russian influence in these countries as well.
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