And if Cristina Kirchner is not a candidate, what?
The question, as Santiago Fioriti summarized in his column this weekend in Clarín, makes La Cámpora despair.
Simply, because from the not-so-juvenile group of Kirchnerism they intuit that without the boss on the ballot their influence will plummet.
And that fear, as this newspaper was able to verify, is based on the data that some surveys have been showing.
Clarín
advances this Monday a particular study that was undertaken to deepen this debate.
It is from
Synopsis
, a firm that was born in 2015 and presents its reports with Ecolatina, the economic consultancy founded by Roberto Lavagna.
The pollster led by political scientist
Lucas Romero
(one of the most active in the media and social networks) carried out a national survey of
1,656 cases
between February 10 and 22 and disseminated the results among its clients (basically companies) days ago.
How much does Cristina have to distribute and her power of influence?
The first key piece of information is how many votes Cristina is worth.
As Clarín
published this Sunday
, for now she is the one who clearly measures the most in the Front of All and would prevail comfortably in an inmate.
In the
Synopsis
poll , the vice president has 18.6 of the 32 points of the Frente de Todos.
She is followed by Sergio Massa (6.2%), Alberto Fernández (4.7%) and Daniel Scioli (2.5%).
The next question that the consultant asks that 18.6% of Christian voters is:
"
If CFK were not a candidate, which candidate would you lean for
?"
.
There it is offered as an option to who is presumed to be the vice president's favorite:
Governor Axel Kicillof
.
Beyond the fact that the economist has already made it clear that he wants to go for an encore in the province of Buenos Aires, he himself does not rule out going for the national bid if the former president orders it.
And if he goes for the presidency, how is it going?
According to data from
Synopsis
, Kicillof would be left with only a third of those 18.6 points: 34.1% of the total.
The worst thing for Kirchnerism is that
21.7% would go with Fernández
, from whom La Cámpora demands an immediate resignation.
Then there are Massa with 21.1%, Scioli with 12.3%, "other" with 3.9% and "undecided" with 6.8%.
The consultant made a second statement, even more direct, to the vice voters (the aforementioned 18.6%):
"And would you vote for any candidate that Cristina Kirchner asks to vote for?"
Most said no or put conditions. Only 33.4%, a percentage similar to that obtained by Kicillof, agreed with the idea of "yes, I would change it for the candidate she says you have to vote for."
Then, with
48.6% , the
"it depends on which candidate she says you have to vote for"
were located
.
Understandable, after the failed experience of Alberto Fernández for many of those fans disappointed with the 2019 formula.
And it completed
18%,
which directly warned:
"No, I would not change my vote because of what she says that you have to vote
. "
analyst look
For
Lucas Romero
, the director of
Synopsis
, "what is seen is a
dispersion of the Kirchnerist vote, if Cristina is not a candidate
. Although it is true that she still has not said anything about her preferred candidate or made insinuations in that sense, with which It is difficult to measure how much she can influence. But what seems clear is that if she disappears from the scene, they
will not all go organically with Kicillof
, who would be the natural candidate for her followers."
"It will not be easy for Cristina to transfer 100% of her support if she is not a candidate -continues the analyst-. This will require an important exercise of militancy of that request. And that reminds us of the difficulties that Lula had
in Brazil
to transfer support to Fernando Haddad in 2018 (he ended up losing on ballot against Jair Bolsonaro)".
look also
Latest polls: opposition advantage and key data on Patricia Bullrich, Horacio R. Larreta and Javier Milei
A new survey measured the province for the election: Cristina and Kicillof sweep, and Burlando surprises