The Mexican president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, assured this Monday that his country is safer than the United States, in response to the warning from the Texas Department of Public Safety that urges Texans not to travel to Mexico during spring break, due to the violence that "the whole country" is experiencing.
"Mexico is safer than the United States. There is no problem to travel through Mexico safely. But US citizens also know that and, of course, our countrymen who are there, they are well informed," said AMLO, during his morning press conference.
[AMLO denies the 'Mouse' and assures that he is the son of 'El Chapo']
The president attributed the travel warning to "a campaign against Mexico by conservative politicians in the United States who do not want the country to continue transforming for the good of Mexicans." They talk about the fact that you can only travel to Campeche and Yucatán;
If that were the case, so many Americans would not be traveling to live in Mexico City and throughout the country.
In recent years is when more Americans have come to live in Mexico.
So, what is happening? Why this paranoia?" asked López Obrador.
The travel warning came after the kidnapping of four Americans in Matamoros (Tamaulipas) in early March.
Two of them were killed, as well as a Mexican woman, killed by a stray bullet in the armed assault, which is attributed to the Gulf Cartel.
More than 550 Americans are missing in Mexico, according to public records
March 13, 202300:20
But which of the two countries—the United States or Mexico—is safer?
There are many variables that can be analyzed on this subject and López Obrador did not explain what he means by saying that Mexico is safer or offer data to support his statement.
But to get a better idea of reality, we undertook the task of comparing various crime figures in both nations.
This is what the numbers tell us:
🟥 Organized crime
Let's start with a general measure: the Global Organized Crime Index produced annually by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC), a Swiss-based non-governmental organization that brings together experts in law, security and governance.
According to that index, which uses data from the 193 UN member states,
Mexico is the fourth country in the world with the highest level of organized crime,
with a crime score of 7.5 (Mexico is only surpassed by Myanmar, Colombia and the Republic Democratic Republic of the Congo).
[AMLO's electoral reform “mutilates” the INE. For its president "it is very difficult to understand"]
The United States ranks 66th on that list, with a crime score of 5.50.
Among the countries of the American continent, Mexico ranks second and the US ranks 15th.
The GI-TOC index takes into account variables such as the presence of mafia networks, their penetration in the State, arms and people trafficking, crimes against non-renewable resources, drug trafficking and foreign criminal groups that operate in each country.
Soldiers of the Mexican army prepare for the search operation for four United States citizens kidnapped by armed men in Matamoros, Mexico, Monday, March 6, 2023. STR / AP
🟥 In homicides, Mexico is also on top
During 2021, Mexico registered a rate of 28 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
That year, just over 35,000 murders were recorded.
The most recent published figures correspond to the first semester of 2022. Between January and June of last year, the homicide rate was 12 per 100,000 inhabitants, a reduction of 14.2% compared to the same period in 2021.
In the United States, the homicide rate for 2021 was
7.8 per 100,000 inhabitants
, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate, one percentage point higher than the estimated 6.9 by the FBI.
The CDC's figure is usually higher than the FBI's because its definition of homicide is broader.
And the number of homicides in the United States increased 4.3% between 2020 and 2021, the rate is still much lower than in Mexican territory.
🟥 Homicides with firearms
In 2021, Mexico registered 19.2 firearm homicides per 100,000 inhabitants.
In total, the country reported 24,307 murders with that medium.
Meanwhile, the United States, the country with the most weapons in the hands of civilians in the world, registered a rate of 6.63 homicides with firearms per 100,000 inhabitants.
The figure in this country rose slightly compared to 2020 (6.12).
AMLO launches a low blow against the Republicans and calls them "wimps, interventionists"
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🟥 Theft of persons and property
The methods of analysis and data collection between both countries can change, so making a direct comparison of the figures is not always valid.
In the case of crimes against property, including theft of homes, persons or vehicles, we offer you the figures for each country without making a statistical comparison.
The goal is to offer perspective.
[Hundreds of people march in Mexico City in defense of the military]
During 2021, Mexico reported 6,582 robberies against people on the street or public transport for every 100,000 inhabitants.
In the US the theft rate, which includes any attempt to forcibly take something of value from someone, was 60.9 per 100,000 people.
In the case of home robberies, Mexico registered a rate of 1,849 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2021. While the United States registered 271 per 100,000 inhabitants.
In addition, we must consider that the US data includes burglaries from homes and any other type of building.
Regarding vehicle theft, by 2021 Mexico registered 513 per 100,000 inhabitants, while the United States reported 268.
🟥 Perception of insecurity
And if we compare what Andrés Manuel López Obrador says with what Mexicans think?
The president assures that there are no problems to travel through Mexico safely and says that both Americans and Mexicans know this.
They point to 'Los Escorpiones' as responsible for the kidnapping of four Americans in Mexico
March 10, 202300:34
But it seems that
in Mexico the majority does not see it that way
.
According to INEG data, at the end of last year, 64% of Mexicans aged 18 or over considered their city unsafe.
However, that number has decreased since López Obrador took office at the end of 2018. At that time, 73% of people in Mexico believed that their cities are not safe.
In the United States, the perception of general insecurity is lower than in Mexico.
In October 2021, 76% of Americans said they felt safe leaving their homes, according to an Ipsos survey.
However, in the cities that sentiment was lower (65%) than in the suburbs (75%) and rural areas (79%).
By October of last year, a record 56% said they felt crime had increased in their neighborhoods, according to a Gallup poll.
Concern among city dwellers about being assaulted, sexually assaulted, killed, or having their car stolen has increased more than among those living in suburbs and rural areas.